Can the St. Louis Cardinals rely on Steven Matz in 2024?

Deconstructing these narratives

Many fans believe Matz is a streaky pitcher who can't stay healthy. On the surface, it's hard to argue with them. But, both narratives have some holes. While Matz has suffered major injuries, they've been weird injuries. The lower leg injury he suffered during his return in July of 2022 was just terrible luck. Come backers happen, and sometimes they injure the guy standing on the mound. Unfortunately for Matz, he happened to be the guy standing on the mound. Had Matz not suffered such an unlucky injury, he may have finished 2022 on a high note, which could have vastly changed the way fans see him.

There's also something to be said about the nature of his injury in 2023. It was a relatively minor injury. Matz probably could have returned had the team deemed it necessary. He may have only missed several weeks of action. However, the Cardinals had no chance to make the postseason. The season was effectively over. It seemed unwise to hasten his return if there were no important games left to play. Thus, he missed more time than he normally would have.

Additionally, that injury was a lat strain. The lat is a muscle in the upper back, just below the shoulder. While those injuries aren't something to be overlooked, they also aren't too serious for pitchers. They're much less concerning than elbow or shoulder injuries. All indicators point toward Matz rehabbing fully and being healthy before spring training.

Matz has been streaky as a Cardinal. However, that's mostly due to a small sample size bias. In two years, unfortunate injuries have limited him to less than 160 innings. He's only made 27 starts with the team. To determine whether Matz is a streaky pitcher, we'll look at his previous experience. Excluding 2020, Matz recorded three straight seasons with at least 150 innings pitched, and in each of those campaigns, his ERA hovered around 4.00. In his best year, which came in 2021 in Toronto, Matz won 14 games with an ERA of 3.82 and a FIP of 3.79. Funnily enough, in his first two seasons in St. Louis, he has recorded FIPs of 3.78 and 3.75, respectively. Contrary to what many seem to believe, Matz has been a model of consistency. With a little bit of improved injury luck, he should enjoy a very productive next two seasons.

Is Steven Matz's contract a good deal?

The Cardinals rarely give out big deals. That's not to say that they're a cheap organization. They took on a ton of money when they acquired Nolan Arenado from the Rockies. They were willing to take on significant money in a Giancarlo Stanton trade. The Cardinals offered Jason Heyward and David Price huge deals. But, those instances are outnumbered by the times the Cardinals have sat out of bidding wars. They weren't willing to meet Scherzer's asking price. They missed on Yamamoto. In each of the two most recent off-seasons, they've decided against jumping into the shortstop market. The examples are seemingly endless.

Instead of giving out big contracts, the Cardinals have typically handed out shorter deals to players in the middle of the market. Mike Leake, Dexter Fowler, and Sonny Gray come to mind as strong examples. These deals have the capability to hinder the Cardinals, but they don't have the capability to cripple them. Fowler's contract was an albatross. However, his relatively low price tag allowed the Cardinals to remain competitive. Jason Heyward's massive contract may have truly prevented them from contending.

With this in mind, it's understandable why the Cardinals don't always make the splashiest signings. It's also understandable why fans and executives alike scrutinize even minor deals. Greg Holland was an expense that a team like the New York Yankees could easily write off. The Cardinals stuck with him for far too long, and although they eventually designated him for assignment, it was clear that the contract burdened the organization. Yankees fans may have ragged on Holland, but they wouldn't still be talking about him five years later. Cardinals fans don't forget bad contracts, even once those contracts turn around.

Unfortunately, as we discussed earlier, Matz got off to a terrible start in St. Louis. Fans decided that he was a bad pitcher on a bad contract. In reality, he's a solid pitcher on a very team-friendly contract. Matz gave the Cardinals 105 quality innings last year. He did so for just $11 million. He was worth that money in 2023, even if he wasn't worth that expenditure in 2022. He really turned it around!

There are plenty of pitchers being paid much more and producing much less than Matz can be compared to. Just last year, Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas both made significantly more than Matz and pitched significantly worse. Around the league, guys like Carlos Rodon, Madison Bumgarner, and Tyler Anderson come to mind as similarly overpaid players. At the price point of $11 million, Matz is a strong pitcher. If he can stay healthy in 2024, he could go from being a good asset to a huge bargain.