Let's talk about the recent resurgence of Cardinals' Steven Matz

The injury bug

By the time Matz returned to the team, it was already late July. Most fans weren't thrilled to see him back in the rotation, as the Cardinals had pitched well in his absence. Matz, to his credit, actually looked really good. He was cruising in the sixth, having allowed just two runs and having racked up seven strikeouts. His day ended abruptly when he mishandled a slow rolling ball, tearing a ligament in his knee. Matz was sidelined yet again, and this time it seemed his season may be over.

The lefty worked his way back and managed to pitch out of the bullpen, in late September. He strung together five excellent appearances, but these were mostly glossed over. Matz was already seen as an ineffective and injury-prone player. In the minds of most fans, signing him was a mistake. Matz had provided just 48 innings of work. Even when on the field, he was ineffective, as evidenced by his 5.25 ERA.

It's not like Matz didn't come with a long injury history either. He's had Tommy John surgery along with numerous other issues. Before becoming a Cardinal, Matz had seen the IL at least ten times. To many Cardinal fans, this was to be expected. If they had seen it coming so easily, why hadn't the front office? They also saw Matz as a primary reason the team couldn't spend elsewhere. Matz, at 44 MM, wasn't exactly cheap for a mid-market team like St. Louis. He was and still is one of the Cardinals' larger financial commitments.

A tale of two halves in 2023

Matz had a brutal first two months of 2023. Through ten starts, his ERA sat at 5.60. He picked up his sixth loss of the season on May 24th. Unlike the 2022 team, this year's Cardinals needed Matz desperately. The pitching staff was surprisingly shallow, and Matz's struggles only compounded issues elsewhere. He was demoted to the bullpen that week. Matz again delivered good production in the pen, leading many to believe he could remain there. He pitched to a 2.81 ERA across eight appearances.

But the Cardinals had other plans for Matz. Their depth was nonexistent, and Liberatore's struggles meant Matz would need to move back to the rotation. On July 9th, Matz made his first start in six weeks. He was dominant. He allowed zero earned runs, struck out nine, and helped the Cardinals to a win in Chicago against the White Sox.

Since then, Matz is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA. He's striking out more than a batter per inning and is limiting walks. He's fixed his home run problem from 2022, although that wasn't really his problem this year in the first place. Perhaps most importantly, in games Matz has pitched in since July 9th, the team is 5-1. In the lone loss, Matz twirled six scoreless innings and the bullpen and offense let him down. This has led numerous fans to publicly apologize to Matz on Twitter!

Where Does This Leave Matz for 2024?

Matz isn't always going to pitch this well. Almost nobody maintains a 1.65 ERA for longer than a few months. But it's encouraging to see him fixing issues. He's allowing fewer home runs and softer contact. Matz ranks in the top 10% of pitchers at preventing barrels, balls hit hard at ideal launch angles. The lower home run rate isn't luck. It's the result of changes in Matz's arsenal and strategy.

Matz's fastball has been outstanding over this stretch, and the strong command allows him to throw his changeup much more effectively. He's mixing up these looks more often too. One of Matz's most glaring issues before was fastball location. He threw his fastball high, and he threw his changeup low. This made it easier for hitters to distinguish between the two pitches. Now, Matz is more effectively changing levels and speeds, keeping opponents off balance. All of this coincides with improved command of his curveball, which is landing in the zone more often than ever.

Matz is even making it into Pitching Ninja's videos now! He may actually have the nastiest strikeout stuff of any Cardinals starter right now. His season numbers also look solid. He now has a 3.91 ERA and has been an above-average pitcher. That's better than plenty of other big names, including Chris Bassit, Nestor Cortes, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, and many more.

To top it all off, Matz's $11 million salary is significantly lower than any of the aforementioned pitchers are making. Maybe, the Steven Matz deal will end up being a bargain. $11 million is low for reliable rotation pieces. Whether Matz can become that is unknown. The longer this stretch continues, the more encouraging it will be. For now, it's obvious that Matz will be part of the 2024 rotation. Where he pitches in the rotation is up to him and his success.