6 things Yuki Matsui's signing tells us about the Cardinals

2. The Cardinals were concerned about his velocity and walk rates.

John Mozeliak traded away Jordan Hicks last trade deadline due to his expiring contract. The franchise needed to replenish its farm system, and Hicks was an easy trade target for opposing teams. When they traded away Hicks, the team lost quite a bit of firepower in the back end of the bullpen.

In order to replace Hicks, perhaps the front office is looking at other flamethrowers such as Aroldis Chapman or Hector Neris. Yuki Matsui averaged just under 92 MPH on his fastball last year, so he won't exactly blow away batters. He also employs a split-finger fastball heavily, and the larger baseball in MLB could be a tough transition. Redbird Rants' J.T. Bucheit discussed this in his article discussing his concerns with Matsui.

Another concerning aspect of Matsui's game would be his career walk rate. His 2023 walk rate was substantially lower (5.9%) than it has been for his career (10.9%). He may have made an adjustment, but a career walk rate near 11% is significant, especially for a bullpen that walked the 16th most batters in baseball last year.

3. The Cardinals wanted to avoid a long contract.

A five-year deal to any relief pitcher is risky business, especially a five-year deal to a player with no experience in Major League Baseball. The Cardinals have been bitten by lengthy reliever contracts in the past (see Brett Cecil), so it is understandable that they would want to avoid those mistakes again.

Matsui's contract keeps him in San Diego from his age 28 through his age 32 seasons. Those are prime years for a pitcher, even a reliever; however, relievers are volatile regardless of their history (see Andrew Miller, Greg Holland, and Brett Cecil again). It seems more likely that the Cardinals sign a reliever to a two-year contract, as they have been apt to do just that in recent offseasons.

St. Louis could have offered Matsui similar opt-outs after years three and four, but those opt-outs are in the hands of the player, not the team. The contract could have turned into a three-year deal but only if Matsui were playing well enough to want more money in free agency down the road. If he didn't succeed, he would more than likely decline the opt-outs and take the guaranteed money.

I'm not sure if Matsui would have taken fewer years and a greater AAV, but that could have been possible for the Cardinals. Even a three or four-year contract worth $25 million would be achievable from the Cardinals' financial perspective.

4. St. Louis doesn't have as much influence in foreign markets as we think.

Despite a decent history of signing players from either Korea or Japan, it is possible the Cardinals don't have as much influence or appeal in foreign markets as we might think. Lars Nootbaar is trying his hardest to make St. Louis appealing to Japanese players, and he can talk up the city all he wants, but in the end, if the Cardinals aren't willing to expand their influence internationally, they are stuck.

Great players hail from Japan, but other countries also have plenty to offer in terms of talent. The international signing period is the best way to sign and attract players from countries like the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Cuba, among others. Only seven players on the team's 40-man roster are from countries outside of the United States. Consistently successful teams such as the Dodgers, Astros, Rays, and Braves all outpace the Cardinals in this department.

The Cardinals were one of the first teams to build a development complex in the Dominican Republic back in 2015, but the team hasn't been able to reap the benefits of acting first in a market laden with talented players. St. Louis needs to act quickly and make themselves more enticing to foreign players. Japan beat the United States at last year's World Baseball Classic; no longer do the best players in the world come from America.

5. Yuki Matsui wanted to play in a big market.

This is perhaps the most important point. In any free agency case, the player holds the most control. What it mainly comes down to is where Yuki Matsui wanted to play. The financials were probably close enough among all of the teams interested in him. What it really comes down to is where Matsui wanted to play.

This has been a common theme throughout this offseason. Outside of Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jeimer Candelario, the biggest free agents have signed with a big market team, most often on either the East or West Coast. Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, Jung-hoo Lee signed with the Giants, Aaron Nola remained with the Phillies, Reynaldo Lopez went to the Braves, and Tyler Mahle signed with the Texas Rangers.

St. Louis is neither a big market nor is it on the coast. Matsui more than likely wanted to play closer to his home and in a time zone that is more convenient for his family and friends in Japan to watch. San Diego is two hours closer (in time zones) than St. Louis is to Japan, so this could have weighed on Matsui's decision assuming all other factors such as length, value, and contract opt-outs were the same. The Cardinals can't change their physical location, so this part of the discussion isn't much in their hands.

6. The Cardinals have another plan.

Brenden Schaeffer brings this up in his podcast that I mentioned earlier. If the price tag for Matsui was somewhere between five and eight million dollars, perhaps the Cardinals would rather spend that money elsewhere.

Dylan Cease would likely have a greater positive impact on the team than Matsui next year and the year after. He is projected to get $8 million through arbitration this year. Jordan Hicks, Phil Maton, and Hector Neris have statistics from playing in MLB; Matsui's stats aren't as clear cut. Maybe the Cardinals have a backup plan and weren't as committed to Matsui as fans initially thought.