6 sneaky signings the St. Louis Cardinals should consider
The Cardinals should consider adding these six free agents to their squad ahead of the 2024 season.
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The St. Louis Cardinals have changed their roster significantly since the conclusion of the 2023 season. The contracts of Drew VerHagen, Adam Wainwright, and several others expired. Then, the Cardinals non-tendered four players: Andrew Knizner, Dakota Hudson, Juan Yepez, and Jake Woodford. They also traded Tyler O'Neill and Richie Palacios.
After emptying several spots, the Cardinals began making additions. They acquired Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn to fortify their rotation. They also nabbed Riley O'Brien, Ryan Fernandez, Alan Reyes, Nick Robertson, and Andrew Kittredge to improve a bullpen that struggled at times in 2023. Other notable additions include Buddy Kennedy and Jared Young, who will compete for spots on the bench. Suffice to say, there are plenty of new faces around the clubhouse.
However, the Cardinals shouldn't be done yet. They have certainly made significant improvements to their roster, and they should at least be closer to contention than they were in 2023. That might not be enough, as the National League Central should be stronger in 2024. Even though the Brewers and Cubs have done little to bolster their major league rosters, both have significant stores of young talent to rely on. Notably, the Brewers' Jackson Chourio could begin the season as MLB's top overall prospect. Meanwhile, the Reds have improved, and even the Pirates could take a big step forward as their premium talent begins to reach the majors. It will be more difficult to win the division than it was in 2023.
Thus, the Cardinals should consider adding further to their roster. Just a few days ago, team owner Bill DeWitt stated that the Cardinals had reached their payroll ceiling. However, recent comments from both John Mozeliak and Bill DeWitt have implied that they may again be open to working in the free agent market. If that is the case, they should consider these six players who can provide strong production at relatively low prices.
In the latest edition of the “Cardinals Beat” newsletter, #STLCards president Bill DeWitt III sheds some light on the parameters that will dictate whether his club adds more pitching pieces to the rotation before the start of Spring Training.
— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) January 8, 2024
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1) Matt Moore
Moore, 34, is coming off of a turbulent, yet productive, year. He pitched for three teams in 2023: the Angels, Marlins, and Guardians. Despite jumping between multiple teams, Moore appeared in 50 games, pitching 52.2 innings and recording a 2.56 ERA. He was outstanding! The lefty boasted impressive strikeout and walk rates. He limited home runs and hard contact as well.
Coming into 2023, many believed that Moore was unlikely to replicate the success he found in 2022, which represented his best year since 2013, in which the then-starter made the All-Star Game as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Over the following eight seasons, Moore battled injuries and ineffectiveness. Then, at 33, Moore experienced a career renaissance. He gave the Texas Rangers 74 fabulous innings of 1.95 ERA ball. He recorded a career-high strikeout rate, likely due to an improved curveball which he threw much more frequently. Performing well in 2023 solidified his status as one of baseball's elite relievers.
Matt Moore could be a sneaky good option for a team in need of a LH reliever.
— Jamie Gatlin (@JamieGatlin17) January 11, 2024
In 50 games during the 2023 campaign, Moore posted a 2.56 ERA while striking out 60 batters.
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Due to his advanced age, Moore yet to agree to terms with a team this off-season. Teams may also be wary of his relatively limited track record. The Cardinals should not be concerned. Moore offers what the Cardinals need: quality strikeout stuff. He racks up whiffs and prevents hard contact. What's more? He does it from the left side. Bringing in a strong lefty like Moore could free up Zack Thompson to compete for a spot in the starting rotation.
Even if the Cardinals chose to continue using Thompson out of the bullpen, adding Moore would strengthen the unit further. Where the bullpen was a clear weakness in 2023, adding just one more established reliever could turn it into a major strength in 2024.
2) Matt Carpenter
The Cardinals should consider a reunion with Matt Carpenter. Now 38, Carpenter is nearing the end of his career. Yes, he was abysmal in 2023 with the Padres. However, Carpenter is still just a year removed from an incredible 2022 with the New York Yankees. Unfortunately, injuries derailed what was shaping up to be a career year. The San Diego Padres liked it enough to extend him a multi-year offer.
Should the Cardinals be quite as ambitious as the Padres were? Probably not. The Padres clearly overpaid for an aging player. However, Carpenter has drawn relatively little interest this off-season. He's likely to be a cheap add. He would make a great bench bat. He also retains at least some positional versatility and could easily fill in in the event of injury.
Moreover, Carpenter could be a helpful presence in the clubhouse, as the veteran has played deep into October several times, including a run to the World Series in 2013. He's also historically played well against the Cardinals' biggest rival. I'm mostly mentioning that so I can include this video.
Perhaps most notably, a Carpenter acquisition could boost the Cardinals' infield depth. Doing so could allow the team to move on from some of their young talent. Carpenter is still capable of filling in for an extended period of time. This added confidence could encourage the Cardinals to make some sort of move to acquire more pitching, such as Dylan Cease or Jesus Luzardo.
Finally, a Carpenter reunion would be fun and exciting for many fans. Carpenter enjoyed an outstanding career in St. Louis, and it would be fitting to return to the team that developed him. Carpenter spent eleven seasons in St. Louis. He nearly won an MVP award in 2013 and 2018. His Cardinal career will likely lead to induction into the Cardinals Hall of Fame. It would just feel proper to see Carpenter return to St. Louis to finish his career.
3) Adam Ottavino
Like Carpenter, Ottavino would technically be returning to the Cardinals, although the former first-rounder's time with the team is often forgotten. In 2010, Ottavino appeared in five games for the Cardinals. He made the only three starts of his career and posted an ERA of 8.46 in 22.1 innings. Ottavino was demoted and reappeared two years later in Colorado after being claimed off waivers. Shortly thereafter, he emerged as a quality reliever and never looked back. Early in the 2023 season, it seemed that Ottavino might pick up his player option for 2024 and remain with the New York Mets. In somewhat of a surprise move, Ottavino declined and elected free agency.
Adam Ottavino To Decline Player Option https://t.co/IrCQLHczY4 pic.twitter.com/EpCKWNLegv
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) November 6, 2023
Ottavino is one of the most durable relievers in baseball. In his first season as a full time member of Colorado's bullpen, he appeared in 53 games, racking up 79 innings. He'd top the 60 inning mark in seven of the next eleven seasons, including the past three years. He's only suffered one major injury, which he overcame with relative ease. He also possesses solid strikeout stuff, although his strikeout rate dipped considerably last year. It must also be mentioned that Ottavino has a walk problem, though his high walk rates have not generally caused severe issues, as he's maintained both effectiveness and efficiency.
Ottavino sports a lifetime ERA of 3.42 and has appeared in 664 games. Interestingly, he's only recorded 45 saves. Ottavino has never been the primary closer on his team. His 12 saves in 2023 represented a career high. If the Cardinals were to sign Ottavino, he'd continue to function in a setup role. That's exactly what the Cardinals need. Helsley and Romero are more than capable at the back end. Giovanny Gallegos is also a quality reliever with legitimate strikeout stuff. The Cardinals don't need Ottavino to close out games. They need him to cover innings.
The 2023 Cardinals just ran out of innings. They signed random veteran relievers like Casey Lawrence and Ryan Tepera in the middle of the season. And that was with Drew VerHagen and Chris Stratton, two relievers who were often under-appreciated by fans. In his year with the Cardinals, Stratton ate up 76.1 innings across 62 games. He was a workhorse who made himself available when the team needed somebody to take the mound. In 2023, VerHagen (who, might I add, pitched to a sub 4.00 ERA) made 60 appearances of his own. That lost production is more significant than many let on.
Yes, the Cardinals have added quality pieces, including Andrew Kittredge. However, none of their additions have previously racked up innings the way VerHagen and Stratton have. Ottavino, on the other hand, has been one of the most durable relievers in the league over the past decade. The Cardinals should absolutely be looking for a reliever with his mix of durability and effectiveness.
4) Whit Merrifield
Merrifield doesn't seem like a great fit for the Cardinals at first glance. He plays second base, and the Cardinals have a plethora of young middle infielders. Although Merrifield was named an All-Star in 2023, he's coming off of a subpar season. He took steps back both offensively and defensively. His value is much lower than it was just a year ago, meaning he'll cost the Cardinals relatively little to acquire. However, teams shouldn't sign players just because they're inexpensive. The Cardinals should be interested in Merrifield because of his durability and because of the roster flexibility he would provide them with.
Merrifield plays second base. If he was added to the roster today, he'd be stuck behind Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan, and potentially Thomas Saggese. Tommy Edman is also capable of playing second at a high level. However, Edman is committed to center, and Donovan functions as a super-sub, filling in all over the field. Thus, the Cardinals are thinner at second base than many realize. If Winn struggles, the Cards could be forced to move Edman or Donovan to short, compounding the issue. If Saggese begins the year in AAA as many expect, they'll also be lacking quality bench options.
Enter Whit Merrifield. He's durable. Merrifield famously played in every game between 2019 and 2021. He plays through various issues, even though many of his contemporaries don't. He'd be available every day off the bench. That kind of player is valuable. Merrifield can stop the bleeding if the Cardinals suffer an unfortunate string of injuries. This would prevent them from relying on players who simply aren't ready, as they've had to in recent years. Let's also remember, Whit Merrifield's still got it.
All Star Whit Merrifield with a no-doubter! pic.twitter.com/tAi4GgxQ2y
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 8, 2023
However, the most interesting part about acquiring Whit Merrifield would be the roster flexibility he would grant the organization. At the moment, the Cardinals are unlikely to move Gorman or Donovan. I'm not saying they should do this, but it must be noted that acquiring an ace will cost the Cardinals dearly. Moving Gorman or Donovan could net a pitcher like Jesus Luzardo, Dylan Cease, or Logan Gilbert. (I will state that I still lean towards holding on to both young infielders).
While both Gorman and Donovan are special players, it's clear that moving them could have disastrous consequences because of a lack of quality infield depth. Winn and Saggese are likely to be good players someday. But, it's possible neither of them are ready for everyday roles in 2024. Even if the Cardinals manage to acquire an impact starter without moving Gorman or Donovan, they may have to part with Saggese, Winn, or other infielders in their system. Adding Merrifield would bolster that depth.
5) Eric Lauer
This is the first starter I've included. That's because there aren't a ton of "under the radar" starters left on the free-agent market. They've all either already signed or gained enough attention to no longer be considered a "sneaky" signing. Starting pitching is in demand all around the league. The problems the Cardinals experienced last year weren't exactly unique. Almost every team in major league baseball could use additional starting depth; in that sense, the Cardinals aren't exactly unique.
Lauer established himself as a quality option across 2021 and 2022 when he recorded a 3.47 ERA in 277.1 innings. The 28-year-old lefty earned a spot in the Brewers' Opening Day rotation in 2023. Unfortunately, he disappointed. Lauer earned the win in his first start of the year but was rocked by the Cardinals on April 8th. His ERA jumped to 7.71. It would never fall below 4.30. Lauer struggled through April and May before landing on the IL with a shoulder impingement. He returned in June but was optioned immediately.
His next start came September 30th. After pitching poorly against the Chicago Cubs, Lauer's season ended. He finished 4-6 with a 6.56 ERA. Most of Lauer's peripherals remained similar to his other seasons. However, his home run rate jumped to a staggering 3.1 HR/9. He allowed an absurd 16 home runs in just 46.2 innings. This is, at least in part, due to bad luck. Lauer had an unsustainably high percentage of his fly balls leave the park. Whatever the problems, Lauer's 2023 was a major disappointment for Milwaukee. It's hard to believe he used to do this.
Can all of Lauer's regression be chalked up to bad luck? Probably not. However, it must be remembered that Lauer has been a quality pitcher before and is still just 28 years old. His value is probably at an all time low. After the 2023 season, the Brewers released him, and Lauer became an unrestricted free agent. Lauer is probably looking for a shot in a big-league rotation. But, considering the fact that it's already January, teams may not be interested in extending him that opportunity. The Cardinals should absolutely consider adding the lefty. He would bolster their depth and could function as an effective long man.
6) Shintaro Fujinami
Shintaro Fujinami was signed by the Oakland Athletics ahead of the 2023 season. It's safe to say call that signing disastrous at this point. Fujinami was not capable of starting at the big league level. Then, Oakland began to use him in a relief role. At the trade deadline, Fujinami was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles, who continued to give him opportunities out of the bullpen. At the time, I suggested that the Cardinals had missed an opportunity to fortify their own bullpen.
The results may seem disappointing at first glance. Even after the trade, Fujinami posted a 4.85 ERA. However, we mustn't be so easily fooled. Fujinami actually posted a FIP of 4.13. What's more? In his time as a reliever in Oakland, Fujinami was extremely effective. He made four starts in April. Those four starts inflated his ERA for the rest of the season. It helps that Fujinami can do this.
Shintaro Fujinami. 💯 pic.twitter.com/OyecK9HVJ8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 16, 2023
Fujinami is probably going to come cheap. Most teams will be wary of him considering the ghastly ERAs. If the Cardinals do acquire Fujinami, they won't need him to close games. Instead, he'd probably function in a set-up role. The Cardinals (or whoever signs Fujinami) certainly won't consider giving him an opportunity to start.
But, it's clear that he has the potential to be a shutdown reliever. While the floor is low, the ceiling is very high. If the deal doesn't work out, it shouldn't cause any major issues for the Cardinals. This is a low-risk high-reward play, and the organization should give Fujinami a long look.
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