5 buy-low trade candidates for the Cardinals in the 2024 offseason

1. Nestor Cortes Jr.

The Cardinals and the Yankees have been trade buddies for a little while now. Talks were even had this trade deadline about a potential swap for Nestor Cortes Jr. and various Yankees' pitching prospects. Familiarity breeds content; Cardinals fans can hope that the Yankees are willing to make a deal to swap players to fill each other's weaknesses.

Up until the 2023 season, Nestor Cortes Jr. was putting up numbers that would place him as the number 2 or number 3 starter in most rotations across the league. He had a 3.60 ERA, a 4.16 FIP, a 1.153 WHIP, and ERA+ of 115, and he struck out just over 9 batters per nine innings. He was even an All-Star for the Yankees in 2022 along with placing 8th in Cy Young voting that year.

The 28-year-old Cortes is more of a groundball pitcher than he is a punchout pitcher, but he has shown the ability to rack up the K's in any given game. While he is apt to give up some hard hits here and there, Cortes does a good job at limiting base runners and barrel rates. His average hard-hit percentage against places him in the 34th percentile in the majors. The lefty also struggles slightly with fastball velocity, as he sits in the 9th percentile. His major calling card is command and control rather than whiffs and overpowering batters.

The story for Cortes in 2023 is a bit different than it has been for his career. This year, he has a 4.97 ERA, a 4.50 FIP, a 1.247 WHIP, and is walking batters at a rate that he hasn't before in his career. Another detriment to Cortes' performance this year has been his inability to stay healthy. He was able to pitch over 150 innings just last year, but he has been hindered by a plethora of injuries this year including a couple of stints on the IL due to some shoulder injuries.

Cortes has shown the ability to lead a staff, but he has struggled mightily this year. Perhaps the Yankees are willing to send him off to the Cardinals for an outfielder, especially a left fielder. Cortes has 2 more years of control left before he hits free agency in 2026. The Cardinals have plenty of controllable players who would be appealing to a Yankees team desperate for offensive and outfield help.

2. Edward Cabrera

The Miami Marlins' Edward Cabrera presents an interesting case. Cabrera is only 25, he has 5 more years of control, and he has been as high as #2 on the Marlins prospect list as recently as 2022. However, he has had a tough time readjusting to major-league batters after a strong performance last year in the rotation.

In 2022, Cabrera threw 71.2 innings. Across 14 starts, he was able to finish the year with a 3.01 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 1.074 WHIP, and he also struck out just over 9 batters per nine innings. His ERA+ was a whopping 134, and he didn't allow many hits per nine innings, only 5.5 hits. Most impressively, however, was his ability to keep opposing batting averages low. The expected batting average against him was .209 and the actual batting average against him was .177.

This year, however, Cabrera hasn't quite been himself. He is striking out more batters (10.9 per nine innings), but he is allowing far more baserunners with a 1.468 WHIP and 6.1 walks per nine innings. He is throwing his curveball more often this year, and batters are hitting .240 against it compared to .164 last year. Additionally, Cabrera is allowing ground balls. Last year, the shifts would have helped ease the damage these grounders had against him. This year, without the shift, the once-groundball outs have turned into hits.

Because of Cabrera's age and his team control, it would take a pretty impressive package to snag the righty out of the Dominican Republic. The Cardinals have plenty of young talent in the minors who are blocked at the majors. The position-player depth in the majors also allows the team to move some pieces to upgrade the starting rotation.

3. Michael Kopech

Michael Kopech is a 27-year-old righty who is known for his power fastball and wicked slider. Drafted in 2014, Kopech rose at a steady rate, making his debut in 2018 for the Chicago White Sox. Once a top prospect in all of baseball, Kopech was able to translate that prospect status into relative success in 2021 and 2022.

Across 188.2 innings pitched in 2021 and 2022, Kopech sported a 3.53 ERA and a 3.93 FIP. He also struck out nearly 10 batters per nine innings while allowing fewer than 7 hits per nine innings. Kopech was great at limiting hard contact, as he only allowed 1.1 home runs per nine innings and found himself in the 72nd percentile in 2021 at hard hit percentage. While Kopech was dominant in 69 innings in 2021, he did start showing some cracks in 2022. He started walking more batters and striking out fewer. His SO/W ratio went from 4.29 in 2021 to 1.84 in 2022.

Kopech would very clearly be a buy-low pitcher. While his struggles this last year and a half aren't attributable to injuries, they could be attributed to increased walk rates and increased hard-hit percentages against him. In 2021, Kopech's had a +1 run value on his slider. That seems to fit, as his slider was once graded at a 65 on an 80-point scale. While his four-seamer has maintained its power and whiff rates, the slider is now a -6 run value according to Baseball Savant.

Despite Kopech's recent prospect rankings (#2 in the White Sox organization in 2021), he could be had for a reasonable price. He may be too low of a "buy-low player" given his clear struggles with command and limiting hard hits, but perhaps the Cardinals could find something to tweak. His 5.08 ERA, 6.42 FIP, 1.532 WHIP, and 87 ERA+ this year definitely lower his value on the trade market. He is also under team control for another two years.

4. Brady Singer

Brady Singer was one of the Royals' prized pitching prospects. After a couple of great seasons in the mid-2010's, the Royals decided to hit reset, thus trading away a handful of players and letting others walk in free agency. Singer, along with Bobby Witt Jr., was supposed to lead the Royals for the foreseeable future.

Singer has provided some strong innings for the Royals. He has yet to go down with a major injury, and he has exceeded 125 innings every season that he's been in the majors, excluding his rookie year in 2020 where he still made 12 starts. Singer has pitched as many as 153 innings just last year and is on track to surpass that many innings this year. From 2020-2022, Singer posted a 4.01 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 109 ERA+, and a 1.298 WHIP. The 2022 season was clearly his strongest. While these numbers aren't ace-type numbers, they are statistics that would surely boost the Cardinals' rotation.

The 2023 season has presented a different case for Singer. In 26 starts and 143 innings, Brady has a 5.15 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.315 WHIP, and is striking out batters at a career-low 7.8/9 innings rate. His April and May featured him giving up 5 earned runs or more in 7 of his 11 starts. Since the early months of the season, Singer appears to have settled down. He had two outings in August in which he pitched 7 innings or more and gave up two or fewer runs in each start.

Brady Singer is primarily a groundball pitcher, so the shift restrictions could have affected him negatively this year. He has also walked nearly 3 batters per nine innings, up from 2 batters in 2022. While he doesn't typically give up home runs, he has seen batters getting more hits off of him this year. His hard hit percentage and average exit velocity both place him in the bottom 7% of pitchers in the majors. The main culprit this year is his sinker; batters hit .255 in 2022 against it, but they are hitting .357 against it this year. Though Brady didn't throw his fastball much last year (13 pitches) and doesn't throw his sweeper much this year (14 pitches), those two pitches seem to have potential, as batters have yet to get a hit off of either pitch.

Hopefully, Singer's numbers will improve with a more stout defense behind him. Luckily, the Cardinals have a track record (though not so much this year) of performing well on the defensive side. They boast 5 starters with Gold Gloves in their trophy cases at home. The Cardinals may also be able to tap into some potential with his fastball and sweeper, though they may want him to refine his breaking pitches instead. Brady Singer isn't a free agent until 2027, so it would take a decent-sized package to pick him up in a trade this year.

5. Cal Quantrill

The Cleveland Guardians are a pitching factory. They have produced dozens of All-Star caliber pitchers over the last decade or so. Cal Quantrill was just another stud in a system that continually produces strong pitchers. Although Quantrill was drafted by the Padres and got his first taste of the majors with San Diego, the bulk of his success and time has been spent with Cleveland.

Quantrill's best seasons, 2021 and 2022, showed him pitching 150 innings or more in each season, starting in at least 22 games, and pitching out of the bullpen at times. In 2021, he had a 2.89 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 1.176 WHIP, and he struck out a little over 7 batters per nine innings. In 2022, he sported a 3.38 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.208 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 112. His strikeout numbers dipped to 6.2 per nine innings last year. While Quantrill has never been known as a punchout pitcher, his ability to limit damage (1.1 home runs per nine innings and 8.8 hits per nine innings) has been impressive.

This year, Cal has been fighting injuries. He has seen multiple stints on the IL, most recently for a shoulder injury. Due to his long list of injuries, Quantrill hasn't been able to pitch to his full capabilities. This year, all of his stats have ballooned to career highs. His 6.45 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 11.1 hits per nine innings, 5.1 Ks per nine innings, and 1.567 WHIP are all career worsts. Additionally, his strikeout-to-walk ratio sits at 1.73, a full point below his career average.

Part of the reason for Quantrill's fall this year can be attributed to injury. He has been on the IL three separate times for a shoulder injury, with his first stint being in June. He was just activated on September 1st. Hopefully, with some improved health next year, Quantrill can return to being a top-end starter in a rotation. He still has two years of control, so he could fit in the Cardinals' rotation for the foreseeable future.