2024 free agent pitchers the St. Louis Cardinals could target

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Most recently, John Mozeliak made it very clear that the St. Louis Cardinals will be selling at the deadline. He also stated in an interview on Monday that pitching would be the focus of the offseason. The front office's plan for 2023 and beyond appears to be comprised of two parts: trade expiring contracts at the deadline and spending on pitching in the offseason.

2024 should be a year that management really makes a push to contend. Paul Goldschmidt and Tyer O'Neill will be free agents after next season. Some minor leaguers are coming quickly through the ranks, but there are impending free agents that management should empty their bank accounts for.

Let's first take a look at players who will be leaving the team via free agency. This article will make two bold (and hopefully untrue) assumptions: the Cardinals don't trade any impending free agents and they don't extend any of these players. Adam Wainwright, Jordan Montgomery, Drew VerHagen, Jack Flaherty, Chris Stratton, and Jordan Hicks will all be free agents after the 2023 season. Those five players' salaries add up to just over $40 million off the books.

Arbitration-eligible players such as Tyler O'Neill, Tommy Edman, Ryan Helsley, Andrew Knizner, and Genesis Cabrera (recently designated for assignment, replaced by Ryan Tepera on a league-minimum contract) will probably balance each other out as O'Neill will more than likely see a pay cut, Edman will see a slight raise, and the other three will stay close to their current salaries for next year.

Nolan Arenado's contract does become a little more expensive for the Cardinals despite going down by $3 million. Colorado is lessening its coverage of the contract from 2024 on. All other contracts the team has remain equal for 2024.

This leaves the organization with around $35-$40 million to play with this offseason, assuming their payroll stays where it currently is. That is enough money to sign at least one starting pitcher and other supplemental pieces (bullpen, primarily). The team doesn't need its typical bench players, as Juan Yepez, one of the four outfielders, Paul DeJong, Masyn Winn, and Andrew Knizner/Ivan Herrera will all provide strong support for the starters.

Let's identify five free-agent starters that the Cardinals can and should target this upcoming offseason. All stats are accurate as of 7/17.

Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray has been very consistent in his career. He sports a 3.52 ERA, a 119 ERA+, a 3.61 FIP, and a 1.216 WHIP. He strikes out just under nine batters per nine innings. He is currently in one of the best seasons of his career while pitching for the Minnesota Twins. Through 99.2 innings, he has a 2.89 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 149 ERA+, and has given up a total of 3 home runs in 18 starts.

He will be 34 for all of next year, and it's reasonable to assume he will garner a lot of attention from a variety of teams. Pitchers with a similar track record and age who have recently been free agents include Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jose Quintana. All three of these players signed for an AAV of around $20 million with a contract length of three years.

There will be fewer high-end starters on the market this upcoming season compared to last season, so expect these mid-range starters to earn more money than last year's mid-range starters. Gray's age is hurting the potential length of his contract in the end.

Contract Prediction: Three years, $69 million ($23 million AAV)

Lucas Giolito

Lucas Giolito is in a very similar situation to Jack Flaherty: young pitchers with high talent who have shown signs of struggle throughout their careers. For his career, Giolito has a 4.22 ERA, 102 ERA+, 4.26 FIP, and 1.229 WHIP. He strikes out nearly ten batters per nine innings.

While these numbers aren't eye-popping, he has shown flashes of being an ace; he received Cy Young votes every year from 2019-2021. His age is also enticing to teams in search of starters. He will play most of the 2024 season as a 29-year-old. Whoever signs Giolito will be getting a strong starter with ace potential in the middle of his career.

This won't come cheap, however. It's tough to find comps for a pitcher of Giolito's talent and age. Most recently, we can find similarities in Marcus Stroman (3 years, $71 million in 2022 at age 30.6), Kevin Gausman (5 years, $110 million at age 30.8), Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, $77 million at age 28.6), Trevor Bauer (3 years, $102 million at age 30), and Carlos Rodon (6 years, $162 million at age 30). Giolito's contract will most likely mirror that of Carlos Rodon's. Giolito is represented by CAA, a group that rivals Boras and Co. (Rodon's reps).

Prediction: 6 years, $150 million ($25 million AAV)

Marcus Stroman

When Marcus Stroman was a free agent in the 2021-2022 offseason, Cardinals fans clamored for him. He's been known as a groundball pitcher, one who would have slotted in perfectly with the team's great defense. Instead, the New York Mets inked him to a three-year deal worth $71 million over the length of the contract. He has a player option at the end of this season which he will more than likely exercise. On the open market, after his season thus far, Stroman is about guaranteed to surpass the $21 million that he currently is scheduled to make should he opt in.

Stroman boasts a 3.55 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 119 ERA+, and 1.237 WHIP for his career. This season, however, is one of his best. His 2.88 ERA, 3.38 FIP, 1.087 WHIP, and 6.6 hits allowed per nine innings are all career bests for the righty starter. He is 32 years old currently and will turn 33 early next season.

Stroman has been outspoken about signing an extension with the Cubs, but Chicago may deal him if they are well out of playoff contention or hold on to him if they remain in the thick of the weak NL Central. His contract length will probably hover around 3-5 years with an AAV greater than that of his old contract ($25 million).

Prediction: 4 years, $108 million ($27 million AAV)

Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola started his career with the Phillies at the young age of 22 and never looked back. He has a 3.67 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 1.124 WHIP, and 115 ERA+ for his career, and he strikes out batters at a rate of ten per nine innings. He has been the ace of the Phillies staff for many years now, receiving Cy Young votes three separate years and even MVP votes back in 2018.

Nola would instantly slot in as the ace of virtually every staff in the majors. The Cardinals would be wise to pursue a pitcher of his caliber regardless of cost. Having recently turned 30, teams who sign Nola would have him for his early-to-mid-thirties. While his fastball has lost a tick or two these last few seasons, his curveball and changeup have always been strong pitches with high whiff rates.

Aaron Nola most closely comps to Carlos Rodon with more innings for his career. However, Nola's lack of injury history puts him a notch above Rodon. Expect Aaron Nola's contract to surpass Rodon's from this past offseason.

Prediction: 6 years, $192 million ($32 million AAV)

Julio Urias

Once a league leader in both wins and ERA, Julio Urias has been a bonified ace in the major leagues throughout his career. He has pitched for the Dodgers ever since he was 19(!!) back in 2016. Since then, he has done nothing but pitch admirably. His career ERA is 2.98 with a WHIP of 1.096 and 8.9 Ks/9 innings. In both 2022 and 2021, he pitched greater than 175 innings.

Perhaps the best (and most expensive) part of Urias would be his age; he turns 27 in just under a month. Whoever signs Urias would have his services for a large chunk of his prime years as a pitcher. Also, Urias has been relatively durable, having only three injuries in his career. His most recent hamstring injury kept him out for just over a month. These injuries are typical for a pitcher. He does not walk batters, he limits hard hits, and he strikes out batters at a rate just above league average. Urias would be a game-changer for the Cardinals.

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Having said all of this, Urias would be the most expensive pitcher of the bunch. He would easily surpass past deals of Carlos Rodon in both years and AAV. Jacob deGrom's contract is actually a good comp as far as AAV goes. The years may be extended slightly due to the age gap between the two starters.

Prediction: 7 years, $245 million ($35 million AAV)

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