3 ways the St. Louis Cardinals could fumble the trade deadline

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With the St. Louis Cardinals mired in their worst season in decades, the trade deadline is set to be an unfamiliar one for Cardinals fans accustomed to purchasing assets. President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak said that the team will be sellers and that the return needs to be "pitching, pitching, pitching."

The Cardinals' pitch-to-contact approach has bitten them this year, as the ban on the defensive shift has rendered their model ineffective. The team's pitching development has lagged behind that of other organizations, so the Cardinals are being forced to search outside the organization until the pitching woes from within are rectified. Mozeliak mentioned that the team is going to try to adjust to the change in pitching and is now more focused on finding pitchers who have swing-and-miss stuff.

The Cardinals recently made their first of what will likely be many moves to come, as they signed free agent reliever Ryan Tepera and designated lefty reliever Genesis Cabrera for assignment.

The team needs to walk a tightrope at the deadline this year: If the Cardinals are too passive, they will be stuck spinning their wheels for years to come as they continually attempt to patch the holes in the roster for the stretch run, but if they’re too aggressive, they risk not being competitive next year while the young players develop in the minor leagues. Because it's such a thin line that the Cardinals have to traverse, there are a few ways that this could go horribly wrong.

Here are three ways the St. Louis Cardinals could screw up the 2023 trade deadline.

They aren't active enough

Since the trades of Randy Arozarena, Zac Gallen, and Sandy Alcantara, the Cardinals have been meek, too afraid to make deals for fear of getting poached again. The last thing the team can afford to do is remain petrified and be passive at the trade deadline. The Cardinals have a lot of depth in the infield and at designated hitter, the latter of which could be a free-for-all between Willson Contreras, Nolan Gorman, Alec Burleson, Juan Yepez, and Luken Baker. The Cardinals can't shy away from dealing from positions of strength, because if they do, they will be right back to this problem next year.

The Cardinals' hesitance to trade players in hopes of coaxing more out of them has led many players' value to drop. Tyler O'Neill is a prime example of this. Were the Cardinals to trade him after 2021, they could have received a massive haul for the MVP candidate. Now his value is down the drain as an often-injured outfielder who hasn't produced in two seasons.

Jack Flaherty is another player whom the Cardinals need to trade at the deadline. His value is likely at its highest since 2019, and the Cardinals risk having another O'Neill situation if they decide to hold on to Flaherty. Although the team has performed better as of late, the front office can't fall victim to the idea that there is still a chance of contention. Mozeliak said the team would get pitching, so the Cardinals need to shell out the resources to acquire some effective arms.

They overload on trading for pitching

Although Mozeliak stressed the need to acquire pitching at the deadline, there is a chance that the Cardinals are so focused on trading for arms that they neglect their offense. If the Cardinals trade too much from their glut of position players, they risk making the same mistake they did a few years ago when they had a large number of pitching prospects and traded a bunch of them, leading to a surplus of offense but few promising minor league arms.

To keep this from happening again, but with too many pitchers and not enough position talent, the Cardinals can't just commit to trading for pitching and giving up their position players. They need to sign some free agents as well so they're not surrendering so much offensive talent. Aaron Nola and Blake Snell make sense as free-agent targets for the Cardinals to sign and plug-in as their ace. Ideally, the Cardinals will trade for a young, up-and-coming starter and fill other holes in free agency.

It's worth noting that the Cardinals no longer possess a surplus of minor-league hitting. Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Ivan Herrera are now with the big league club, so while the team should make pitching a priority, it can't overlook the offensive side. The Cardinals should complement the pitchers they do trade for with young hitters ready to contribute at the major league level in 2024.

They play their trade pieces too much

Although the Cardinals would obviously prefer not to tip their hand when it comes to revealing whom they are looking to trade, there is a possibility that if Oliver Marmol decides to keep playing the regular lineups and starters, someone will get hurt, which would be a worst-case scenario for the front office.

The scare with Jordan Montgomery being forced to exit a game on July 7 with a hamstring injury could have been a wake-up call for Marmol. While he likely isn't privy to whom Mozeliak plans to trade, he is undoubtedly aware of the rumors swirling around many Cardinals. It would behoove Marmol to skip the next starts of Montgomery and Flaherty and get some of the regular position players who might be dealt off their feet.

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There are several ways the Cardinals could bungle this deadline, especially given that the front office has never been in this situation. Although Mozeliak has hinted at what he plans to do at this deadline, there is no way to be sure when it comes to how the team will handle it. Let's hope that he is able to expertly navigate these rough, uncharted waters.

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