3 players the Cardinals should target with the 7th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft

3. LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas

Hagen Smith was utterly dominant this year, posting a 2.04 ERA in 84 innings pitched for the University of Arkansas. Smith generated swings-and-misses at an exceptional rate and struck out a total of 161 batters on the season. Opponents batted just .144 against him in 2024.

Four-seam Fastball: Hagen Smith's primary pitch is a 95.5 mph fastball with 16.4 inches of IVB and 13 inches of arm-side run from a 5.6' vertical release height. Smith added close to 3 mph on his fastball from 2023 and got up to 100.3 mph. The pitch's movement profile in a vacuum is mediocre at best but plays up due to his low release and above-average velocity. Smith generated a 41.8% whiff rate on his four-seam fastball, ranking 2nd best in Division 1 College Baseball in 2024 (min. 500 pitches).

Slider: Smith's best offering is his 84 mph slider. The pitch has solid depth with -1.3 inches of IVB and sweep with 5 inches of glove-side movement. Smith also has a great feel for spinning the pitch. Much like his fastball, the pitch plays up due to his release. Smith stands on the first base side of the rubber, and with his lateral release, the HAA on the pitch is elite. He also commands the offering well, locating it away from lefties and inside to righties to optimize the HAA. Smith registered a hellacious 56.4% whiff rate on his slider this season.

Changeup: Smith's third pitch is an 88.3 mph split-change, which averages similar arm-side movement to his fastball with 8 fewer inches of ride. Smith lacks feel for the pitch at the moment, but I expect it to be a viable offering against righties once he gets more comfortable using it.

Smith is without question a top 2 pitching prospect in this year's draft class. He's a tier down from Chase Burns, but the Cardinals should still consider him if he's available at pick 7. There is some reliever risk with Smith due to his cross-fire delivery and lack of feel for a 3rd offering, but it's hard to argue with the body of work he produced for Arkansas this year.

2. OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M

Braden Montgomery is one of the most impressive power bats in this year's draft class. Montgomery is a switch-hitter who is equally explosive and twitchy from both sides of the plate. In 61 games this year for Texas A&M, Montgomery slashed .322/.454/.733 and crushed 27 home runs.

Power: Montgomery's most promising tool is, without a doubt, his power. It's not only plus raw power from both sides of the plate, but he consistently gets to it in games. Montgomery was one of just four hitters in Division College baseball with a 90th percentile exit velocity greater than 110 mph, a hard hit rate greater than 65%, and a barrel rate greater than 35%. Montgomery's blend of raw and game power is some of the best in the entire class, and his ability to display the power from both sides of the plate is extraordinary.

Hit: Montgomery's hit tool is a divisive topic among evaluators, but I believe he'll hit enough for the power to play. His contact rate pretty easily ranks worst among the top grouping of collegiate players in the class. This year, Montgomery made contact 85% of the time in the strike zone, which is acceptable, but that number dropped to 49% outside the strike zone. Most of the whiff was against offspeed and breaking pitches. Montgomery will certainly have to improve his pitch recognition in pro ball, where the quality and command of offspeed and breaking pitches are far better. Montgomery does a solid job of avoiding mishits when he makes contact, so he has the tools to overperform his mediocre at best contact rate.

Arm/Run/Defense:  Montgomery started his collegiate career as a two-way player, sitting mid-90s with his fastball. His arm strength is an easy double-plus scouting grade. Montgomery is a close-to-average runner and fits a corner outfield profile defensively. He primarily played right field across his collegiate career, and that's where he fits the best due to his outstanding arm strength.  

Braden Montgomery's batted ball data is on par with Charlie Condon for the best in the entire draft class. There are some questions about his contact ability, specifically in terms of recognizing and hitting offspeed and breaking pitches. Nonetheless, Montgomery improved his plate discipline this year, and I believe in his ability to adjust his approach when necessary.

1. SS JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia

JJ Wetherholt is a savvy left-handed hitter with exceptional contact and plate discipline skills. In 36 games this season for the West Virginia Mountaineers, he slashed .331/.472/.589. Wetherholt missed seven weeks early in the season due to a hamstring injury, which is the sole reason for his draft stock declining and even being a possibility at pick 7.

I briefly discussed consensus top 2 draft prospect Travis Bazzana earlier in the article, mentioning how he "has one of the most well-rounded offensive skillsets in the draft class". Wetherholt is right there with him, and it's wild how close these two are in terms of batted ball data, contact rate, and plate discipline.

SS JJ Wetherholt
AvgEV: 95.4 mph
90thEV: 108.2 mph
HardHit%: 57.1%
Barrel%: 31.2%
Contact%: 84.7%
Chase%: 14.1%
Z-Swing% 69.0%

2B Travis Bazzana
AvgEV: 95.9 mph
90thEV: 108.7 mph
HardHit%: 68.5%
Barrel%: 41.5%
Contact%: 85.1%
Chase%: 14.0%
Z-Swing%: 61.0%

Bazzana projects to hit for more power than Wetherholt due to hitting the barrel more consistently and pulling his aerial contact more often. Still, the offensive profiles are extremely similar, and Wetherholt handled his own at a more premium defensive position.

Hit: Wetherholt has an elite hit tool, making contact 88.5% of the time in the zone and 85.1% overall. Over the past two seasons for West Virginia, he struck out 39 times and drew 56 walks in 432 plate appearances. Wetherholt rarely expands the zone, chasing only 14.1% of the time while maintaining a decent zone swing rate. He genuinely has outstanding plate discipline skills rather than just benefiting from a passive approach at the plate. When Wetherholt makes contact, he possesses a sweet left-handed swing that generates tons of line drives to all fields.

Power: Wetherholt's power tool is certainly not his calling card; however, he still has above-average raw power. His 90th percentile exit velocity of 108.1 mph is in great territory. Wetherholt doesn't barrel or pull the ball enough to consistently reach his raw power, but the exit velocities are still encouraging. It's average game power right now, with the potential to be above average if he unlocks more pull-side power.

Defense/Arm/Run: For the third year in a row, Wetherholt played a different primary position. In 2022, he played most games at 3B; in 2023, he primarily played 2B; this year, he served as West Virginia's starting shortstop. Wetherholt is an absolute gamer no matter where he plays on the diamond. He held his own this year at shortstop despite a below-average throwing arm. He projects best at second base, but if he can adequately handle shortstop in pro ball, there's more value there. Wetherholt has the athleticism to steal 30+ bases at the next level, but I wonder how much the hamstring injury impacted his baserunning aggressiveness this year. Wetherholt stole just 6 bases last year following a 2023 season where he stole 36.

Entering the season, JJ Wetherholt was considered the top player on most draft boards. There comes some risk with a player who had two hamstring issues in the past year. Soft tissue injuries are more prone to re-aggravation, so I can understand why a team would be skeptical of drafting Wetherholt. Regardless, it would be a home run move if the Cardinals can get a talent like Wetherholt at pick 7.