Polarizing Cardinals outfielder named to MLB's all-underrated team

Another day, another Lars Nootbaar article from yours truly. While I did not plan on continuing my campaign for why Nootbaar needs more appreciation from St. Louis Cardinals fans, MLB.com released a really interesting list that prompted the conversation once again.

Anthony Castrovince, who produced really great work on MLB's flagship site, put out a list the other day titled "MLB's 2025 All-Underrated Team", and wouldn't you know it, Nootbaar earned the nod for one of his outfield choices.

Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar gets deserved nod on MLB.com's All-Underrated Team for 2025

Before I give you my analysis, let's take a look at what Castrovince had to say about Nootbaar being on his list.

"Injuries have prevented a true breakout for the 27-year-old Nootbaar. In the last two seasons, he’s hurt himself sliding into bases, running into walls and even just swinging the bat. That’s no fun. But when able to take the field, Nootbaar has shown excellent plate discipline, leading to a 116 OPS+ over the last three seasons -- production basically on par with our left fielder, Ward. When you look at Nootbaar’s Baseball Savant page, you might note that he’s in the 82nd percentile or better in whiff percentage, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, walk rate and chase percentage. All this points to a breakout in the making for Nootbaar… if he can stop running into walls."

We all understand by now that Nootbaar needs to stay on the field if he's going to be the kind of impact player that myself, Castrovince, and many others think he is. But he's where I think there is a disconnect with too many fans of the team - Nootbaar isn't a mediocre player who is getting too much hype - Nootbaar is a really good player who has not truly broken out yet due to random injuries over the last two seasons.

It's really easy for pessimists to dismiss my thoughts and just call me a "homer" or "carrying the front office's water", so that's why I think it's important to point out when national writers with a neutral perspective see the same things I am.

As Castrovince pointed out, Nootbaar has a 116 OPS+ since becoming a regular on the roster in 2022. This isn't a guy who just has flashy Statcast numbers but can't actually produce on the field - Nootbaar has already been a well-above-average hitter, and the numbers continue to show room to grow.

Any time you can pair elite plate discipline with excellent average exit velocities, max exit velocities, hard-hit percentage, and a low whiff rate, that is a recipe for major success. I'm not even trying to act like he could be some MVP candidate, but those are the types of things that some of the most feared hitters in baseball are able to claim, not just a random "fourth outfielder" that someone within the fan base claims he is.

Another contributor over on MLB.com, David Adler, found that Nootbaar was in the top 10 in all of baseball in "blast rate" last year, tied with Shohei Ohtani and only behind names like Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Yandy Diaz, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Fernando Tatis Jr. A "blast" is when a hitter has a high bat speed and squares up the baseball on the sweet spot of the bat - the type of swing that leads to extra-base hits.

Adler found that the average slugging percentage in MLB on such swings last year was 1.184 SLG! And Nootbaar was among the ten best hitters in baseball at doing that often.

I would have loved to see what Castrovince would have described as a true "breakout" for Nootbaar. For me, a breakout campaign would involve him playing 135+ games, posting a 4.0 fWAR or bettering, and a wRC+ north of 120. That is a very good player and someone that Nootbaar has the talent to be if he can remain healthy.

Yes, that feels like a big if, and it is something that he has to prove to people. I can't just tell you he's going to be healthy. We are all going to have to see it happen first. But what gives me hope that he can do so is the nature of his past injuries. These haven't been the kind of injuries you see players have to deal with and stave off their entire careers, these have been weird and oftentimes flukey injuries.

Even so, there are just some players who can't avoid those types of injuries, and Nootbaar will have to prove he's not one of them. Nootbaar hasn't been a guy with a long injury track record, contrary to what the narrative seems to be. Nootbaar did not suffer any injuries during his first full-time season in St. Louis in 2022, and that just so happened to be when he had his best offensive campaign (123 wRC+ in 108 games). The only reason Nootbaar did not play in more games that year was due to the fact that he did not break into their regular outfield until later in the year.

I'm expecting a breakout year from Nootbaar in 2025 like Castrovince. If he can do so, that dramatically changes the outlook of the Cardinals' outfield mix and lineup moving forward.