Lars Nootbaar has gone from international superstar to underrated for the Cardinals

Depending on who you ask, there are some within the fanbase that think St. Louis Cardinals' outfielder Lars Nootbaar is overrated, a "fourth outfielder at best", and needs to be moved on from, pronto.

You would think with how much flack the Cardinals have gotten from giving up on young outfielders too early that the fan base would have learned from those mistakes. Well, luckily the Cardinals are sticking by Nootbaar once again in 2025, and while there's no guarantee it will pay off, all of the signs are there for a massive breakout waiting to happen.

Some of you are probably rolling your eyes right now. Breakout? Haven't we heard that story with Nootbaar before? He already took Japan by storm in 2023 and became the international superstar that the Cardinals were putting front and center in all of their marketing. How can that guy be seen as a breakout candidate in 2025?

Just goes to show you how much public opinion has changed despite Nootbaar remaining a fascinating talent.

Lars Nootbaar has become underrated by many fans despite good production for three seasons now

I know, I know. Nootbaar has not been able to stay on the field. I get it. I know that is of massive importance. If Nootbaar does not play consistently in 2025, he will remain a polarizing figure in this fanbase and will likely lose even more of his support. But let's not get this twisted, when Nootbaar is healthy, which is more than some of you give him credit for, he's a good player who seems ready to become a great one.

Let's start by setting a base with the results on the field before we look at the underlying metrics that may indicate more success is on the horizon. Nootbaar's first full season with the Cardinals came in 2022 after a 58-game sample size as a part-time player in 2021, so let's start by looking at what Nootbaar has done on the field since he became a regular three seasons ago.

Since 2022, Nootbaar had 1255 plate appearances, slashing .246/.351/.426 with 40 home runs and 131 RBI. His 13.9 BB% is sixth best in all of baseball over that stretch and he was one of the better K% in baseball (19.8%). Nootbaar's best trait so far has been his on-base skills, with his .351 OBP ranking 29th in all of baseball since 2022 (also, shout out to Brendan Donovan for ranking 14th and Willson Contreras for ranking 18th during that stretch!).

I'm a big wRC+ guy when it comes to comparing offensive output, as wRC+ measures a player's offensive output and puts it on a scale, with 100 being league average and anything above it being better than average and anything below 100 being worse than league average. wRC+ also takes into account ballpark factors and what the run-scoring environment around the league was that season.

Since 2022, Nootbaar has a 118 wRC+, meaning he was 18% better than a league-average hitter, which is 61st out of the 230 hitters who have 1000+ plate appearances over that stretch. Even if you shrink that number to a plate appearance minimum of 500, Nootbaar still ranks 73rd out of 420 hitters.

Nootbaar has a better wRC+ since 2022 than the following players: Steven Kwan, Bryan Reynolds, Matt Chapman, Bo Bichette, Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Marcus Semien, Luis Robert Jr., Adolis Garcia, Ozzie Albies, Cody Bellinger, Elly De La Cruz, Alec Bohm, and hundreds of other players.

Even with Nootbaar struggling to remain on the field over that stretch, he still ranks within the top 100 position players in baseball in WAR over that stretch, posting a 7.3 fWAR, 83rd among those 420 position players.

All of that should be enough to tell you that when Lars Nootbaar is on the field, he's a good player. He's 18% above-league average as a hitter, he's an above-league average defender, and even without playing enough games for any of our likings, he still is in the top 20% of position players in WAR over that stretch.

Lars Nootbaar has all of the tools to become a true difference-maker in 2025 for the Cardinals

If Nootbaar just keeps producing like he is right now, he's a valuable player and is still underrated by many fans. But the reason Nootbaar continues to get even more attention and hype than that is because there are so many indicators that tell us that if he plays close to a full season, he could see a significant jump in his production.

Nootbaar is averaging just 111 games played since 2022. If he produced what his three-year averages are in 2025 but played in 150 games instead, you'd be looking at a hitter who slashes .246/.351/.426 with 18 home runs, 26 doubles, 60 RBI, and 75 runs scored. If you're someone who needs to see the counting stats, those numbers would all rank within the top 100 hitters in 2024.

But the potential people see in Nootbaar is not just that he could give you more counting stats if he was healthy - it's the fact that Nootbaar when playing consistently, has risen his level of play above what his career averages are, and the thing that has consistently derailed him from producing 10%-15% better at the plate over the course of a season in rate stats has been the injuries.

It's not just dumb luck either that Nootbaar gets hot when he plays every day, the underlying metrics back up that Nootbaar has so much untapped potential that can play out if he is on the field more often.

Just take a look at the 2024 season. On the surface, it was actually his worst offensive season as a full-time player (posting a 114 wRC+). But when you look under the hood, he has so many traits that grade out as elite compared to his contemporaries.

Nootbaar ranks in the 91st percentile in Hard-Hit% and the 100th(!) percentile in Chase%. That means that no one in baseball is better than Nootbaar at laying off pitches out of the zone, and whenever Nootbaar does hit the ball, he's among the best 9% of hitters in the game at hitting the ball hard consistently. Only Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, and Seiya Suzuki were 90th percentile or higher in both Hard-Hit% and Chase% in 2024.

If you're not familiar with the stat wOBA, it stands for weighted on-base average, and it measures how valuable a player's on-base skills are by attributing more value to doubles than singles and ultimate weight to home runs. Basically, it's like on-base percentage, but a walk or a single is not as valuable as a double or home run. So instead of measuring how much you get on base, it measures how often you get on base and how much of that is by doing damage.

Since 2022, Nootbaar has a .339 wOBA, the 68th-best in baseball. Again, that is a good hitter! But the underlying stats tell us that Nootbaar's production is actually lagging behind what the expected stats say he should be producing.

xwOBA measures the expected wOBA of a player by taking into account their exit velocity, launch angle, and even sprint speed to see how impactful a player should be at the plate. We all know that things like batted ball luck can sway a player's actual output, but players who rank high in xwOBA tend to be the very best hitters in baseball.

Well, last year, Nootbaar ranked in the 89th percentile in xwOBA and 26th among all hitters with at least 400 plate appearances with a .355 xwOBA. Nootbaar's xwOBA trailed Bryce Harper and Mookie Betts by .002 and .001 a piece, and was higher than players like Riley Greene, Pete Alonso, Seiya Suzuki, Jose Ramirez, and the over 150 players behind him on the list with 400+ PA.

I haven't even mentioned how Nootbaar ranked in the 77th and 78th percentile in xBA and xSLG, 88th percentile in average exit velocity, 66th percentile in Barrel%, 82nd percentile in Whiff%, 65th percentile in K%, and 98th percentile in BB%. Had Nootbaar qualified for leaderboards in Bat Speed and Squared-Up%, he would have ranked around the 60th and 90th percentile, respectively.

To summarize, we are talking about a player who is already producing 18% above-league average at the plate, who has averaged just 111 games per season since 2022 but plays even better when he's on the field for prolonged stretches, and the underlying and expected numbers tell us he should be a great or excellent hitter based on what we can measure? Uh, yeah, that's why the Cardinals still think so highly of him!

Look, I agree that Nootbaar has to prove it before we all can crown him as an upper-tier player in this league. But based on production alone, he's already a top 100 position player at the plate and based on WAR, and if he's on the field consistently, chances are he rises up even further and becomes a top 50 player in this game.

If you told me Nootbaar was going to play in 145+ games in 2025, I'd tell you to bank on a true breakout year from the 27-year-old outfielder. If he plays in the 111 or so he's averaged thus far, then he'll be just a good player, and that's not a bad thing. It is dissapointing based on what we know he can do, but he's not a throw-away player like some make him out to be.

It's on Nootbaar to remain on the field and prove the doubters wrong, and I have no doubt that he's motivated to do so in 2025.