The Cardinals should let Lars Nootbaar try to win their center field job

I think most of us can agree that the St. Louis Cardinals offseason has been a major disappointment. As we draw closer and closer to spring training, the voices of frustration have grown louder and louder. While there are a lot of things fans could complain about, I think it is fair to say that the vast majority are lamenting the lack of a true direction.

Sure, runway has been provided for the kids. But has it really? Or maybe the better question is, have the Cardinals done so to the best of their ability? I would answer no to that, and many of you do too. And while the status of Nolan Arenado largely remains up to the interest of other clubs, the Cardinals have a major say in whether or not they move some veterans in their rotation or bullpen via trade, or how they divvy up playing time to young position players. We discussed that heavily on our most recent episode of Dealin' the Cards.

I do not anticipate the Cardinals changing their stance when it comes to keeping Erick Fedde and Steven Matz. I envision the catching dynamic this year involving more of Pedro Pages than I think many of us would like to see (he's a nice catcher, but Ivan Herrera should be the primary option). But there is one area of the roster that we haven't touched on enough this offseason, and as camp approaches, I strongly believe a certain polarizing personality should be given the opportunity to run out in center field.

Lars Nootbaar.

The Cardinals should let Lars Nootbaar try to win their center field job during spring training

Let's start with the most important piece of information - I did not just grab this thought out of thin air. According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Nootbaar playing in center field is something that the club "plan to look at" during spring training, and the "offensive performance of Siani or Victor Scott II will be factors".

I know, some of you probably want to fall out of your chair at the suggestion that Nootbaar, who already struggles to stay on the field while playing the corner outfield spots, should try and play center field in 2025. I'll get to those injuries in a moment, as I think you'll be surprised at how insignificant of a role they should play in this decision.

You may also be thinking about how Tyler O'Neill tried to move to center field back in 2023. Yes, that was a bad experience, but it should not stand in the way of other players attempting the challenge, and O'Neill's situation was very different than Nootbaar's.

Let's start with the injury concerns we all have about Nootbaar before I get into why he should have an opportunity in center field from a baseball perspective. I wrote the other day about how underrated Nootbaar is, and I know how many of you will not listen to a word I say about him because of his injury history.

Well, let's do the deep dive, shall we?

Lars Nootbaar's injuries have been both freak and frequent

Since 2023, here are the types of injuries that Nootbaar has dealt with: spraining his thumb sliding into third base, hurting his back and fractured ribs while running into an outfield wall, hurting his back another time when jumping into the wall, hitting a foul ball off of his lower abdomen that caused a groin injury, and a strained oblique while swinging his bat.

Three of these (thumb sliding into third, the back/ribs from running into a wall, and the groin injury) could easily be avoided. Straining his oblique while swinging? Still kind of a freak thing, but sure, that's concerning.

The one injury that Nootbaar has suffered while playing in the outfield that concerns me in regard to future injuries is from late May 2023, when Nootbaar jumped back into the wall while playing center field, falling awkwardly and hurting his back in the process. Walls will always be there, no matter what position Nootbaar plays in the outfield. While there is an argument that he is more likely to deal with walls in the corners, no matter what, he's got to be more aware of his surroundings and figure out how to protect his body.

Luckily, Nootbaar knows that.

When Nootbaar was asked at Winter Warm-Up about how much control he has in the offseason regarding preventing future injuries, he acknowledged that it was an area he focused on this winter, training differently and working to activate areas of his body that are not used often, so when he does find himself in awkward situations, it does not result in those weird injuries. But even so, even Nootbaar remarked that he needed to stop running into walls.

When you think of someone playing center field, the types of injuries you tend to see occur land far more in the vein of soft tissue or major tears than those freak back injuries, rib fractures, or thumb sprains. You're far more likely to see hamstring and groin strains, ankle sprains, knee injuries, shoulder injuries, or lower back pain caused by the quick movement, not the wall run-ins Nootbaar has had.

If Nootbaar won't stop crashing into walls like a freight train, then none of what I am saying matters. But if he is controlled and calculated with when he puts his body on the line, he has not really experienced the kinds of injuries that I just referenced are of concern.

You can believe they are inevitable for him, but I guess we'll have to wait and see. But enough about the injury bug, I want to talk about why Nootbaar should have the chance to play center field from a baseball perspective. Ultimately, if that part doesn't make sense, then there is no point in making that swap.

Lars Nootbaar may be their best center field option, and it could add significant value to his game

Most of us understand that center field is a more valuable position than the corner spots. It's a more difficult position to play at a high level, and it is why we are far more likely to see defensive specialists hold down the position (see Michael Siani) than you are to see guys like that in left or right field.

Speaking of Siani, even with how much he impressed Oliver Marmol and the coaching staff with his defensive prowess, he was still 36% below league average at the plate on the season. Victor Scott II, who I still have high hopes for as the club's potential long-term option in center, was 60% below league average at the plate.

For context, Scott had 155 plate appearances in 2024. Out of the 410 players with at least 150 plate appearances last year, he ranked 406th in wRC+. Siani had 334 plate appearances, and out of the 286 players with at least 300 of those, he ranked 279th. Out of the 61 primary center fielders who had 150 plate appearances in 2024, Scott ranked dead last and Siani ranked 52nd in wRC+.

Siani did play near Gold Glove-level defense in center field last year, which is a huge benefit for the club's defense. But when the bat is that bad, Siani should not have a stranglehold on the position, and the Cardinals certainly should consider ways to take a major step forward there offensively, even if that means taking a step back defensively.

Lars Nootbaar will be nowhere near as good defensively in center field as Siani or even Scott. That is a given. Since his first full big league season in 2022, Nootbaar has posted a -0.8 Def rating out in center field, while Scott edges him out with a 0.7 Def and Siani is miles better at 8.9 Def. When it comes to OAA, Nootbaar is a +1 for his career while Siani is at an elite +15 in just 100 more innings. DRS is more of the same, with Nootbaar at a -1 and Siani +7.

I think it's fair to expect Nootbaar to be average at best in center field defensively, with it being very possible that he is slightly below average. Not Jordan Walker bad in the outfield, but a slight negative overall.

Yes, when we look at the defense first, I'm not making a great argument, am I? But let's remember where we started - Siani and Scott have been awful at the plate for St. Louis so far. If that changes, then this conversation for sure does too. But that is why I think Nootbaar deserves the opportunity to win the center field job as if he outplays those two, it opens up a lot of possibilities for the Cardinals in 2025.

To show you how much of an offensive improvement Lars Nootbaar would be offensively in center field, I want to show you how his numbers from 2024 (which were a hair down for him) compare to what both Cardinals' center fielders produced in 2024 and what the league average center field produced at the plate.

Even in Nootbaar's worst offensive season of his career thus far output-wise, he's still miles better offensively than Siani and Scott, and he's a major step above the league-average center fielder offensively.

If you're interested in more advanced or predictive analytics, they also favor Nootbaar heavily in the center field conversation. Nootbaar's 114 wRC+ in 2024 would have ranked eighth among qualified center fielders, his .331 wOBA would have slotted in sixth, and his xwOBA would have been third best among full-time center fielders in 2024. And again, Nootbaar has been better offensively during his career than he was in 2024.

2025 is a big year for Lars Nootbaar, and he'll ultimately have to prove himself for the general public to buy in again

I cannot tell you for a fact that moving Nootbaar to center field would pay off. I'm merely presenting a case that the Cardinals must consider him as an option there, and they must let him fail, get injured, or be so impressed with a different option that he does not win the job. Because on the surface, Nootbaar looks like a guy who can have some of the best offensive production at the position in baseball while playing average or slightly below-average defense.

If 2025 is really a reset year, isn't this the exact kind of experiment you want to try? If positioning the club for long-term success is the goal here, wouldn't seeing if Nootbaar can become the answer to one of your most important positions make sense? If he fails, so what? Now you cross him off the list. But if he blossoms, that is a major win for the organization. Siani is not their long-term option in center field, and unless Scott has taken a major stride at the plate this winter, he could benefit from time in Triple-A.

Speaking of opportunities for young talent, whether Nolan Arenado is with St. Louis or not next year, having Nootbaar in center helps open up chances for other young players in a big way. With left field open for business, Brendan Donovan or Alec Burleson could slide in there. If Nolan Arenado is still in town, then that means Burleson now has an everyday role that he currently does not have with how the roster looks to be falling into place. If Arenado is gone, then someone like Thomas Saggese, Luken Baker, or others could see a major increase in their role as well.

So moving Nootbaar to center field is not just about replacing Siani or Scott's offense with his, it's about allowing a bat like Burleson or Saggese to take their spot in the lineup as well. If Donovan is the primary left fielder in this scenario, we saw how good he can be out there in 2024.

If you think this plan would fail, you could probably present a pretty valid case. But what I do not see is a good case as to why the Cardinals shouldn't at least try this out. If you are someone who thinks Nootbaar is overrated or average at best, well, let him prove that to you then. You can't make an argument that Siani or Scott have been more productive than Nootbaar, so you might as well see what he can do there. If he fails, then did it really hurt anyone?

I'm all aboard the "Let Nootbaar try and win the center field job during spring training" train. Feel free to jump on the moving carts with me, as I think this movement is going to pick up some steam here soon.

If it crashes and burns, well, it's not like the Cardinals have given us much to lose here.