National media pundits keep turning a blind eye to Cardinals' deteriorating asset

The surprise success of the St. Louis Cardinals in 2026 has left the team in a strange position after the front office sold off most of its assets during the offseason. Some fans have clamored for the team to go for gold during this run, but the more prominent, and wiser, thought is that the Cardinals need to stay the course and sell at the trade deadline. Most members of the media seem to agree, but lately, they've appeared a bit out of touch with the reality of the performance of one of their more valuable trade chips in closer Riley O'Brien.

The Cardinals have come out on top in many close games this season, and O'Brien has been a key factor in eking out those victories. He holds 18 saves on the season, which is tied for fourth in the major leagues. Several baseball outlets have tabbed O'Brien as a player whom the Cardinals should cash in on at the trade deadline: Mark Feinsand of MLB.com mentioned him as a "trade candidate on the rise," citing his elite ground ball rate and strong walk rate as reasons for bullpen-needy teams to seek out his services.

ESPN's Jeff Passan took it a step further, connecting O'Brien to the high-flying Los Angeles Dodgers. O'Brien would help shore up their banged-up relief corps, with Passan musing that he could be the long-term replacement for Blake Treinen while providing insurance in case Edwin Diaz goes on the shelf again.

But O'Brien hasn't been the otherwordly stopper that he presented himself as in the first month of the season. In March and April, he surrendered just two earned runs in 15.1 innings while walking only one batter. For someone with an 11.6% career minor league walk rate, that's a ridiculous improvement.

O'Brien was less sharp in May, allowing seven earned runs in 10 innings but just three walks, although he also hit three batters. June, however, has wiped away any facade of dominance that remained in O'Brien's profile. As of June 21, he has walked seven batters in six innings and allowed four earned runs.

O'Brien's swoon could persuade the Cardinals to keep him around

With O'Brien's control now regressing to its career norms, there's likely less desire around the league for his presence at the back end of a bullpen. The Cardinals still have four years of team control over O'Brien, making him extremely affordable, and with him holding far fewer innings than the typical 31-year-old relief pitcher, one can see the case for the Cardinals to retain him for 2026 unless they receive an unexpectedly generous offer.

Despite the lack of mileage on his arm, O'Brien's age means he's unlikely to improve significantly at this juncture, and the possibility of injury only increases with age, let alone that of a high-90s flamethrower who has already dealt with a flexor strain.

The Cardinals seem likely to deal Dustin May, JoJo Romero and Lars Nootbaar at the deadline given the value they possess, but President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom could weigh the calculus and determine that it's worth seeing if O'Brien can right the ship over the remainder of the season. If he can, there's always the offseason for Bloom to revisit trade talks.

National baseball writers still appear oblivious to O'Brien's swift drop-off, but other teams are certainly more in tune with his recent results, or lack thereof. The media may be shocked if the Cardinals opt not to move their closer come Aug. 3, but Cardinals fans should get in on the ground floor when it comes to recognizing his diminishing value on the market.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow