Horrible call gifts Cubs series win over former Cardinals' manager Mike Shildt

For all of the whining that Chicago Cubs fans did last week regarding St. Louis Cardinals' manager Oliver Marmol's sensible decision to intentionally walk Michael Busch and "rob" him of a chance to hit for the cycle, they seem to be eerily quiet regarding the horrible call that pushed them to the NLDS on Thursday night.

In case you missed Game 3 between the Cubs and the San Diego Padres, the Padres were down 3-1 entering the top of the ninth, and Xander Bogaerts led off the inning facing Brad Keller. Keller got into a 3-2 count against Bogaerts, and proceeded to miss the strike zone low and away with a 97 MPH fastball that should have sent Bogaerts to first base with a lead-off walk. Instead, the home plate umpire called strike three in what was one of the worst calls of the postseason thus far, and ended up having a major impact on the result of the series, as the Cubs would close out the game and advance to the NLDS over Mike Shildt's club.

Terrible call against Mike Shildt's San Diego Padres gifted the Chicago Cubs a playoff series victory

Keller proceeded to hit the next two batters, Ryan O'Hearn and Bryce Johnson, putting runners on first and second for Jake Cronenworth. But if you're keeping track at home, that should have loaded the bases for the Padres, had Bogaerts properly been awarded first base on what should have been ball four.

Most of us are well aware of how much of a difference things are with the bases loaded and no outs versus runners on first and second with one out. If you look at the run expectancy matrix in 2025, runners on first and second with one out typically results in a 0.96 run expectancy, while bases loaded with no outs has a 2.69 run expectancy...which the Padres needed two runs to tie the game.

Some Cubs fans, including their own Marquee Sports Network, have tried to argue that it was actually the correct call based on the Baseball Savant strike zone, but Baseball America's JJ Cooper rightfully pointed out that it was a generic display of the zone, and had ABS been in play right now like it will be next year, the call would have immediately been overturn based on a zone adjusted to Bogaerts' height.

Yes, I know, the Padres would have had to take advantage of that moment for it to ultimately swing the series, and who knows what the Cubs would have done in the bottom of the ninth if the Padres had tied the game or taken the lead. But I have a strong feeling that if the roles were reversed, Cubs fans wouldn't be listening to that argument. It's incredibly frustrating as a baseball fan to see calls like this impact games, and obviously, as a Cardinals supporter, it would have been great to see Chicago sent home.