Former Cardinals top prospect officially escapes Cubs after brief association

Dylan Carlson joined a long list of notable outfielders to play on both sides of the St. Louis Cardinals-Chicago Cubs rivalry when he made the latter's Opening Day roster this year.

Here's what I had to say at the time: "He's been the best version of himself this spring. Through 19 games (56 plate appearances) in spring training, Carlson hit a robust .304/.429/.413, good for a 127 wRC+. The underlying metrics are a little questionable — his BABIP finished at an unsustainable .433 mark, and he struck out 26.8% of the time — but he certainly looked the part of a fourth outfielder."

So much for that idea. After just three games (and four plate appearances) into his Cubs tenure, Carlson has been cut loose. The North Siders designated him for assignment to make room on the roster for Seiya Suzuki (activated off the injured list), and the former first-round pick elected free agency after clearing waivers.

Dylan Carlson's MLB career has hit a crossroads after inconspicuous Cubs tenure

It's hard to believe it's been five years since Carlson's breakout campaign, when he earned 3.2 bWAR en route to finishing third in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Since then, he's been a below-average bat in every season (according to wRC+), and he's been worth -1.6 fWAR since the start of 2024.

It's obviously difficult to stick around in the big leagues when you're consistently performing below replacement level, even when you have the top prospect and first-round pedigree that Carlson does.

He's still somehow only 27 years old, right in the middle of his should-be prime, which may coax another team or two into giving him a chance to prove his big-league bona fides. The Cubs certainly never offered him that opportunity; four plate appearances in the span of nearly three weeks after a huge spring training performance is simply disrespectful. At least Carlson, by making the active roster, can reap the benefits of his $2 million contract this year while Chicago pays him to play elsewhere (or not play at all).

Truth be told, this may be it for his MLB career. He's bounced around Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Chicago since the Redbirds traded him, but he's never come close to rediscovering his rookie-season magic. A subpar outfield defender who can't hit and doesn't run particularly well isn't exactly on the top of most teams' wishlists; at best, Carlson, who has punished Triple-A pitching in recent years, may top out as a Quad-A player in his search for a new team.

If he is going to prove everyone wrong, though, having a chip on his shoulder from both the Cardinals and Cubs is as good of motivation as any in baseball.

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