The Dylan Carlson illusion should hammer home some baseball truths for Cardinals fans

Sometimes even the most skilled handyman can't repair something that's broken, although the Tampa Bay Rays gave it the old college try in their attempt to fix former St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson. For a short time, it appeared that the developmental dynamos had worked their magic again, as Carlson hit .293 with three home runs in his first 14 games after being traded to Tampa Bay on July 30.

The good times weren't to last, as Carlson hit an anemic .178 for the rest of the season, and Cardinals fans who had groaned about another one getting away were able to relax with a sense of schadenfreude when the Rays non-tendered Carlson on Nov. 22. A variety of factors likely contributed to Carlson's brief upswing after the trade. It was clear that he was in desperate need of a change of scenery, as he appeared to have lost all confidence while with the Cardinals.

His pedigree planted weighty expectations on his shoulders from the start, and John Mozeliak's well-known remark that other teams could pry Carlson from his "cold dead hands" placed Carlson even further under a microscope in St. Louis. Being free of that pressure, plus the fact that most American League pitchers likely didn't have substantial scouting reports on Carlson, may have elevated his play just long enough to incite dread among Cardinals fans and rejoicing among the Rays faithful.

But perhaps Carlson's saga will prompt some of the more reactionary Cardinals fans to pause before declaring a trade to be "lost" when a former Cardinal finds a modicum of success in his new garb.
Given the seemingly endless number of times in recent memory where the Cardinals wound up with the short end of the stick in deals, it's hard to blame many fans for expecting the worst, but plenty of former Cardinals have failed to get their careers off the ground upon leaving St. Louis as well.

Carlson's case is another in a long line of young players who didn't pan out, and he serves as a warning for fans not to overvalue prospects. Fans can often be blinded by the hype that accompanies many promising players, leading some to declare certain players "untouchable" in potential trades. Mozeliak fell victim to this school of thought with Carlson, and fans aren't immune to it either.

Mozeliak's tenure may be coming to an end after 2025, but the scrutiny of players after they leave St. Louis is likely to remain under Chaim Bloom. But if Carlson's short jaunt in the sun only to precede a descent back into mediocrity tells fans anything, it's to keep expectations measured after small sample sizes and to stay grounded when an exciting young player is knocking on the door.