Cardinals' Riley O’Brien is running into the same problem Ryan Helsley did

Earlier this season, the ninth inning felt like more of a guarantee than a challenge. When newfound closer Riley O’Brien, deemed ‘ROB’ for short by Cardinals’ writer Brenden Schaeffer, it was clean and crisp. Unfortunately, the volatility that’s chased Cardinals closers for years may finally have caught up to O’Brien. 

What’s causing O’Brien’s recent skid? 

In his last two outings, O’Brien has taken a loss and a blown save. The 2026 Cardinals have had a surprising amount of pop, but nowhere near enough to compensate for the wins turned losses. 

Even through the recent hailstorm of hits, O’Brien has remained elite in many categories. He still ranks amongst MLB’s best at limiting walks, inducing groundballs, and average fastball velocity. All of which are common traits of marquee closers. What’s holding back O’Brien could be an issue former Cardinal closer Ryan Helsley ran into. 

Simply put: when O’Brien is right, he seems unhittable. But when he’s slightly off? He becomes a one-pitch pitcher. The right-handers' offerings include a sweeper, sinker, cutter, and the occasional changeup. Unfortunately, in recent outings, his sinker or sweeper has been nonexistent. The solution is as simple as counting to three. 

One: sinker. Two: sweeper. Three: CHANGEUP. 

When Helsly was in The Lou, he sported a roaring fastball and a devilish slider. His third pitch was a curveball that he’d often throw as a get-me-over pitch early in counts. When Hells Bells had multiple pitches working, he looked like prime Lee Smith. When he lost his 1A slider or 1B fastball, everything fell apart, especially against one species of opponent. 

Another interesting fact about O’Brien is that he’s been a much worse pitcher at home. Busch Stadium is anything but a hitter’s ballpark, and if the tarps remain off, surely his numbers will even out. 

Left-handers are loud

Although O’Brien’s splits aren’t drastically different, it’s clear that left-handed batters have an advantage–particularly when he struggles to command his sinker that runs away from the lefty barrel. 

The solution? The good ole’ changeup. A famous coach once said, “40 years ago, I fell in love with the changeup.” That’s exactly what O’Brien needs to do. 

Not only would the pitch help fend off opposing left-handers, but it would also tunnel PERFECTLY with his sinker. Adding a new pitch isn’t a simple ‘grip it and rip it’ situation, but if St. Louis wants to position itself to offload O’Brien for maximum value, it must continue to develop him. 

Overworked, underpaid, and lots of decisions to be made

Another clear concern for recent bullpen failures is the workload they’ve been asked to cover. 

Cardinals’ starters in 2026 have made a habit of ‘five and dive,’ which used to be looked down upon in Major League Baseball. Through those short bursts, Matthew Liberatore has seemingly found a new gear for his strikeout stuff. In tandem, however, he’s traded longevity. In a recent outing against the Brewers, Libby sat down ten by way of the K but only lasted five innings–and he still gave up three earned runs. 

If the Redbird rotation wants to maximize strikeouts, they have to come in bunches. When a high-ceiling pitcher dominates, they WIN. That’s what makes their ceiling high to begin with. Take Dustin May, for example. The offseason acquisition had a nightmare start in St. Louis. After his first two outings, his double-digit ERA was enough to make a grown man cry. Now, the right-hander has racked up one quality start after another, en route to a great bounce back. THAT is a high ceiling. 

In addition to his great performance, O’Brien is an unbelievable bargain. The Cardinals are paying him next to nothing to shut the door. If he were to be traded at the deadline and continue his late-game heroics elsewhere, he’d command BIG money. That is why St. Louis needs to maximize what he’s capable of in the now, as a closer, teammate, and trade asset. 

Although recent outings haven’t felt quite like home for the Cardinal closer, his shine will surely return. President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom is adamant he’s staying the course with his young roster. If that’s the case, O’Brien needs to get back on track before July, so that the Redbirds can ship him off and speed up this already rapid-reload. 

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