Cardinals prospect's changeup rated best in minor leagues

The St. Louis Cardinals drafted Tink Hence in the second round of the abbreviated 2020 MLB Draft, and since his selection, he has been catapulting his way onto top prospect lists around the league. Most recently, the 22-year-old was featured again, this time calling special attention to his circle changeup.

Tink Hence's circle change has been voted as the best changeup in the entire minor leagues

Coming out of high school as a 17-year-old, Hence flashed potential early as a lanky but athletic and fundamentally sound pitcher. Scouts pointed out his ability to sit in the mid-90s with his fastball, and, paired with his already-plus slider, it made him an easy selection at number 63 overall in the draft. The biggest concern for Hence, who stands at 6'1, was, and remains, his small frame, but he has demonstrated above-average command throughout all levels of the minors.

Even with the early positive reviews around Hence's slider and, at the time, developing changeup, the righty scrapped the slider for a new curveball and continued to focus on his off-speed offering. In 2022, scouting reports noted his changeup sat in the mid-80s and he was already showing increased feel for the pitch while getting opposing hitters to swing and miss at a high rate. Hence has seen the most significant jump in his prospect rankings in the 2023 season, as his fastball touched 99mph and he brought back his slider, giving him four potentially plus pitches. The Cardinals took a cautious approach with the righty from Arkansas and limited his workload to 96 innings during the campaign before sending him to the Arizona Fall League, where he dominated hitters to the tune of a 1.38 ERA and a 41.5% strikeout rate.

2024 was even more impressive when looking at his peripherals. The three-year pro saw scouts applaud his changeup even more and gave it a 70 grade, the highest rating of all of his offerings. While he was again limited by injuries and workload concerns, Hence dominated when he was on the mound with 109 strikeouts in 79.2 innings. His changeup was a huge reason for his success, as the pitch, now sitting in the 82-84mph range, garnered swings and misses at an otherworldly rate of 73%, including hitters whiffing at the pitch 64% of the time even when it was in the strike zone.

Durability concerns appear to be the last hurdle for Hence to have an extended opportunity to crack the major league rotation. Despite the fact that Hence is consistently rated as a top-100 prospect (Baseball Prospectus #38, Keith Law #39, Baseball America #68, and MLB Pipeline #77) executives have started to wonder if he will be better off in a closer role. However, Hence is still just 22 years old and was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. The Cardinals plan to give the righty a chance to compete for their fifth starter opening during Spring Training, but with a lack of innings added to the fact he has yet to throw a pitch at the Triple-A level, it is more likely Hence will start the season in Memphis.

With his already refined tools and consistently smooth delivery, the Cardinals will give Tink Hence the opportunity to become a mid- to front-of-the-rotation starter. If injuries continue to be a concern after a hopefully extended run out of the rotation, it is possible they could still find real value in the former second-round pick out of the bullpen.