Cardinals' offseason rental is doing enough to warrant a long-term stay

The St. Louis Cardinals just finished off their hardest stretch of the year with a 9-7 record over four potential playoff contenders and the pitching helped lead the way over the past couple of weeks. After the offense carried the load for much of the first 30+ games, the starting rotation returned the favor and each guy from the staff contributed during the stretch. Specifically, offseason addition Dustin May has been a major stabilizing piece of the rotation since his rough start to the season.

After sending Sonny Gray to Boston and allowing Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde to find new homes this winter, Chaim Bloom wasted little time diving into the free agent pool for reinforcements and settled on a perfect match Dustin May to fill one of those voids. The two sides were seen as fits early and often in the winter, eventually agreeing on a one-year, $12 million deal with a mutual option for 2027. At the time of the announced terms of the contract, I was bummed that it was not a two-year deal or at least contained a team option, as that flexibility would allow the Cardinals to go a couple of different ways in what was supposed to be a rebuild season. With a one-year agreement since mutual options are never exercised, it looked like this was meant to be a short-term marriage that ended with a divorce during the summer, with the pitcher headed to a contender and the Cardinals getting a hot, young thing in return.

Dustin May is pitching his way into extension territory

The mutual option included in the contract agreement is for $20 million, a decent chunk of cash on the table for a pitcher who is hoping to prove himself as a front-of-the-rotation arm for his next contract. That rate would be the 23rd-highest salary among starting pitchers this year, equal to the likes of Corbin Burns, Joe Musgrove, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, and Spencer Strider. While those names are higher profile than May, he has outperformed all of them thus far into the 2026 season, even including his first two starts of the year, where May gave up 13 earned runs in just 7.1 innings. Since that time, though, the righty has been the pitcher the Cardinals expected when signing him to fill the rotation void.

In his six starts since, May has thrown six innings in five of them (5.1 in the other) and given up three earned runs just once. That has resulted in a 3-2 record with a 2.55 ERA, with 25 strikeouts and just over 2.0 BB/9, while facing three teams currently in playoff contention. While we hope that the strikeouts continue to trend upwards, there is very little to be disappointed about in May's short time with St. Louis and is pitching his way into becoming a piece of the rotation beyond this year. If the Cardinals continue their winning ways, May could (and should) stick around in the starting staff rather than be shipped away for a lottery ticket or two we hope cashes. A deal involving May would open up a big league starting spot, but nobody in the upper level of the minors has been knocking down the door to St. Louis just yet.

An extension does not just keep May in St. Louis through this year's deadline, but opens up the door to potential negotiations again this winter or during next year. If injury or poor performance interrupts May's campaign, that would limit any potential return for a midseason deal this year and put him in a weird spot as Chaim Bloom decides which way to go this year. Honestly, I would not go beyond 2027 in an extension, a risky move since we do not even know if baseball will be played next year, but the whole idea of the contract would be to provide more flexibility if things go awry. Similar to how the Cardinals handled JoJo Romero last year, the added year could make Bloom more comfortable to hold out on any deal.

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