Cardinals must consider Iván Herrera trade that lands Mariners breakout arm

The St. Louis Cardinals have a new development on their hands—and it may involve swapping catcher Iván Herrera for Mariners’ Emerson Hancock. 

Recently, the Mariners announced that they’re open to trading away Hancock if approached with the proper offer of a right-handed bat. 

With the current backtracking of star outfielder Julio Rodriguez, the M’s, similarly to the Cardinals, have been without a right-handed power bat for a while. If not for former Cardinal Randy Arozarena’s All-Star campaign, they may be well out of the race by now. 

As for their pitching, the Mariners have such a surplus that they’ve managed to keep phenom prospect Kade Anderson in the minor leagues all season. As of July 23, the southpaw has a 1.36 ERA through 72.2 innings this season at Triple-A. 

Hancock, the hurler in question, has also been effective for Seattle. Through his first 19 starts, he’s managed 2.4 bWAR and a more than solid 3.16 ERA. 

Conversely, Herrera has somewhat alienated himself in St. Louis this year. 

Last season, in a breakout campaign, the Cardinal slugger made his money by becoming a nightmare for left-handed pitchers everywhere. His 1.115 OPS against southpaws felt almost unprecedented. Unfortunately, this season, he’s regressed and left the Cardinals with a difficult choice. 

Although the Redbirds seem to be ahead of schedule, there are no promises in baseball. Success is often fleeting, and without the right moves, mediocrity is sure to follow. If that’s the case, what are the justifications and reasons for hesitancy as it pertains to this particular swap? 

Reasons to trade and extend Iván Herrera as a St. Louis Cardinal 

Trade: Defense- As a catcher this season, Herrera has thrown out the same number of baserunners as the person reading this. It’s remarkable. Whenever a basestealer attempts to nab second, it seems to take them only two steps when he’s behind the dish. Consequently, his caught-stealing above-average ranks in the first percentile of all big leaguers, at a negative five mark. With next to no value as a defender, alienated from his natural position, the Cardinals may want to get ahead of this runaway train before it gets out of control. 

Extend: Bat eye- At the plate this season, Herrera ranks in the 72nd percentile or better in whiff, K, and walk percentage. Those aren’t astounding numbers, but they do prove one thing: He has an approach, and he sticks to it. Even now, when times are rough, Herrera finds himself working counts and earning his way to first base. It’s been a tough go for the Cardinal catcher, but his ability to outlast pitchers is ever apparent. You can’t teach knowledge of the zone. You can only hope it manifests. Herrera has it, and that’s worth noting. 

Trade: Positionless- As previously mentioned, Herrera has been a putrid defender behind the plate. His athleticism points towards improvement, but that’s been the case since he debuted. Unfortunately, the clock may have finally caught up. Somehow, some way, the Cardinals have managed a catching pipeline like no other, and with a platoon of names on their way to the big club, there is no time to dilly-dally, hoping for one player to figure it out. Here’s some food for thought: The Cardinals buy so heavily into Herrera that they miss out on, let’s say, a perennial 20-home run, .800 OPS bat behind the dish. That could come in the form of Leo Bernal, Ryan Campos, or most likely, Raniel Rodriguez. Although those remain projections until the success comes to pass, sometimes the mere "prospect" of success outweighs the security of production, especially when that production is deteriorating in real time. In addition, with Alec Burleson cementing himself as quite possibly the Cardinals’ most consistent hitter, and Blaze Jordan’s need for more runway, first base is off-limits. That leaves designated hitter. Will Herrera hit enough as a full-time player, with less platoon advantage to rectify being the Cardinals’ DH of the future? That’s yet to be seen. 

Extend: Personality- It’s been well documented that on and off the field, Herrera carries himself with poise. And his work ethic has been hard to ignore. The Cardinals seemingly always have something for him to work on, and time and time again, he reinvents himself. First it was his swing. With a reorganized stance, Herrera took baseball by storm and cemented himself as a legitimate offensive threat at the big league level. That open-faced look to the pitcher, leading into an aggressive yet calculated load into his back hip, all for him to uncoil into a baseball and send it into the bullpen, is one of the prettier right-handed swings in recent Cardinals memory. Then, it was the defense. Although the numbers don’t reflect his hard work, Herrera worked extensively with Yadier Molina on becoming the kind of catcher who can lead a pitching staff with his arm, IQ, and feel for the game. And finally, Herrera has found a way to keep himself on the field. He didn’t miss a game until July 23 this season, and for a young backstop who’s had trouble with health in the past, that deserves a tip of the cap. There is no doubt that if put in the right situation, Herrera will thrive. He’s proven that. And a lot of that comes from his unshakable demeanor. 

Trade: Rotation necessities- This is less a Herrera anecdote and more of an organizational tidbit. What on God’s green earth do the Cardinals have moving forward in their starting rotation? Michael McGreevy and Hunter Dobbins both have shiny ERAs—and expected numbers that say otherwise. Matthew Liberatore has fans clamoring for change amidst a barn-burner of a season that’s amounted to more hard contact than prime Richard Sherman. And Dustin May looks like he’s on his way out the door by the August 3 trade deadline. That leaves…Kyle Leahy? The reliever-turned-starter with one year of experience under his belt and numbers that look a whole lot better after a recent hot stretch? No shade whatsoever; he’s been phenomenal as of late, but the point is, there’s next to no certainty on this roster. To add insult to the Cardinals’ lack of firepower, their development in the minor leagues has been shoddy to say the least. Top prospects Liam Doyle (STL #2), Tanner Franklin (STL #4), Quinn Mathews (STL #7), and Jurrangelo Cijntje (STL #8) have all had copious growing pains on their way to The Show, invoking much less confidence from the St. Louis faithful, as it should. There’s still plenty of time for each one of them to turn things around and become an avid contributor, but the mere idea that lightning in a bottle is possible shouldn’t deter a team from opting for a steadier option—especially when it’s right in front of you! 

With all of that being said, what does Hancock himself present that the Cardinals cannot ignore? 

What Emerson Hancock would bring to the Cardinals 

This season, Hancock has been one of Seattle’s most reliable arms. 

He’s done so with one of MLB’s best fastballs that ranks in the 99th percentile, and he has already racked up 22 run value. 

Unfortunately, he is a project. With an xERA of 4.31, Hancock has shades of McGreevy. He outperforms his expected metrics every start—and the lack of support within his pitch mix may play a key role in the blue on his Savant page. 

Outside of his fastball, Hancock’s breaking ball is mediocre, and his offspeed is downright awful. With so little room for error and only one real weapon, it’s fun to dream on the type of arm he could become with a tweak or two. 

His lack of deception translates into almost no chase, and when hitters are in the zone, they do damage. Consequently, he has lackluster hard hit rates and struggles to find strike three. 

It might not be a simple equation, or a "one trick fixes all" scenario for Hancock—but that also seems to be the case for Herrera. 

All it boils down to is this: Would you rather take the player who’s currently replaceable within your own organization and hope he ascends to become irreplaceable? Or add a new piece that you already lack, who would immediately make an impact, and try your darndest to make him even better? 

The Cardinals missed out on a ton of highly touted trade targets under former POBO John Mozeliak due to the overrating of their own talent. Until prospects debut and prove they can do it in The Show, they’re assets. It’s time for St. Louis to start treating them as such and acquire a piece they desperately need. 

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