Breaking down how the Cardinals can balance playing time for young position players

Getting all of the puzzle pieces to fit together is more complicated than you'd think.
Jun 3, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Alec Burleson (41) celebrates with second baseman Nolan Gorman (16) after hitting a home run during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Jun 3, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Alec Burleson (41) celebrates with second baseman Nolan Gorman (16) after hitting a home run during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

When it became clear that the St. Louis Cardinals would have Nolan Arenado on their roster this year, playing time got more complicated for their young bats.

When the club decided to have Victor Scott II as their primary center fielder, it complicated further.

That's not a bad thing, Arenado and Scott's presence on this team makes them better when they are performing. But it does create a tension that the Cardinals' coaching staff must manage when their position player core is healthy, as playing time is not simple to divvy out.

Providing opportunities will be complicated, but the Cardinals can spread out playing time if they are strategic.

If the Cardinals want to make sure as many of their young position players get ample opportunity as possible, then the club is going to have to get creative in order to do so.

At first, I thought about trying to break this up into a weekly schedule, but in all honesty, there are far too many variables to do so, and I don't believe a seven-day outlook would do it justice. As I thought through this, 14-day outlooks actually made far more sense, but it's difficult to map that out here without it getting murky quickly.

Instead, I looked to break down the Cardinals' playing time dilemma down by total games throughout the season, and I'm fairly happy with what I was able to map out for them. But first, we must set some ground rules in order to set the stage for this.

Rules of engagement that must be followed in order for this plan to work:

1. Key players must be willing to sacrifice when everyone is healthy.

While I'm not here to predict injuries, we all know it is virtually impossible for a club to go through an entire season unscathed. Injuries will solve some of these constraints we are trying to navigate, but whenever the roster is healthy, key players must be willing to sacrifice a little playing time in order to get everyone worked into the lineup.

2. Everyone must understand their role, but flexibility is required of some.

The Cardinals chose to construct their roster in such a way that almost every player on the roster has a clear and defined role. If players commit to the vision and submit to that plan, the position player group could be more productive than you'd think on the surface. And with multiple players on the roster vying for similar roles, those who have the ability to adjust must be willing to do so at times.

3. Be prepared for substitutions in-game based on what the situation requires.

One way the Cardinals are going to be able to get creative in providing playing time is by deploying their bench throughout the game as needed. Whether it is offensively based on a platoon matchup or defensively to hold the lead, the Cardinals are positioned to use their bench often. Not only does that give them an advantage in certain situations, but it also allows them to get players into the game, even when they are not starting.

4. When the roster is at full strength, certain players will have more frequent off days in an effort to keep them healthy.

If the Cardinals have access to their best guys, they are going to use them as often as possible. But when considering the status of guys like Lars Nootbaar and Nolan Arenado, they'd be wise to add in a few more off days as compared to other names in order to keep them healthy and producing all season long. Nootbaar has had a variety of injuries hold him out of the lineup over the last few years, and as Arenado ages, it may not be wise to let him play almost every day.

Now, here is how the Cardinals can balance the playing time of their position player group this season.

Below is each player on their Opening Day roster, in order of the total games I have them starting. I included how many games they would start at different positions as well. Remember, players who are not starting may still be deployed mid-game to fill a role.

  1. Willson Contreras - 1B (149 GS), DH (5 GS), Total: 154 GS
  2. Brendan Donovan - 2B (112 GS), LF (34 GS), SS (8 GS) Total: 154 GS
  3. Masyn Winn - SS(154 GS), Total: 154 GS
  4. Jordan Walker - RF (148 GS), Total: 148 GS
  5. Lars Nootbaar - LF (120 GS), CF (22 GS), Total: 142 GS
  6. Victor Scott II - CF (140 GS), Total: 140 GS
  7. Nolan Arenado - 3B (128 GS), DH (10 GS), Total: 138 GS
  8. Ivan Herrera - C (110 GS), DH (20 GS) - Total: 130 GS
  9. Alec Burleson - DH (78 GS), 1B (13 GS), RF (14 GS), LF (8 GS) - Total: 113 GS
  10. Nolan Gorman - 2B (50 GS), 3B (34 GS) - Total: 84 GS
  11. Pedro Pages - C (52 GS) - Total: 52 GS
  12. Luken Baker - DH (49 GS) - Total: 49 GS
  13. Michael Siani - 0 GS

In this scenario, eight of the Cardinals' nine players in their Opening Day lineup start 130+ games, with only Alec Burleson falling short of that marker. Burleson has extreme platoon splits, so he gets into the lineup each day against right-handed pitching while sitting out in favor of Luken Baker when a lefty is on the mound. With about 30% of games being started by a lefty, that is where the 49-game mark comes in for Baker.

Burleson and Baker are great examples of how players may not start the game but still get at-bats later in the contest. If Burleson finds himself in a big spot late in the game with a lefty on the mound, Baker should be entering the game, and vice versa.

The Cardinals' DH spot is very crowded this year. It would be easy to just mark down Burleson or Baker for the DH spot each day, but if the Cardinals want to play guys like Contreras, Arenado, and Herrera often, they need to have that available to them as well. The Cardinals did not play Burleson in the outfield in spring training, but if they want to fit all of their bats into the lineup as much as possible, he'll need to play out there occasionally. I have him playing outfield in 14% of their games, which I think is perfectly fine.

Michael Siani, on the other hand, gets zero starts here, and while that's probably not going to happen, it's something the club needs to consider if they want their best players to play often. Having Siani available any game to sub in defensively is a nice asset for the team, so I expect Siani to enter most games they have a lead in entering the late innings. If the Cardinals do start him in more games, you'll see Scott, Burleson, Gorman, Donovan, Nootbaar, or Walker take a hit for that in their playing time.

The Cardinals have positioned Masyn Winn to play shortstop every day for them. In this world, I bake in eight off days for him throughout the year, and Donovan will slide into that spot as the only other player on the roster capable of handling the position.

Nolan Gorman is the player who truly gets the short end of the stick here, starting only 84 games. The only way for that number to rise would be to take away time from Donovan, Arenado, Burleson, or Baker, or, of course, an injury. In all honesty, he's actually probably set for even less playing time, because part of the reason I was able to pool together that many games for him was because of my moving Donovan to left field and Nootbaar to center on off days, and Arenado sitting out 24 games.

What this exercise should demonstrate more than anything else is how complicated it will be to get these guys the time they all want. There's really no perfect scenario here. Oliver Marmol and his staff are going to have to get creative to get guys at-bats, and it will be interesting to follow how he plans on doing that this year.

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