How the Cardinals can structure their lineup to overcome this glaring weakness

The St. Louis Cardinals' offensive struggles in 2024 were well documented. The unit was supposed to be the club's greatest strength, and instead, it fell flat on its face time and time again.

The conversation that took center stage, and rightfully so, was their inability to produce with runners in scoring position. The Cardinals ranked 29th in all of baseball in wRC+ in those spots thanks to a bottom-four ranking in average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage when run-scoring opportunities presented themselves.

I plan on circling back on that conversation here as the season gets underway, but honestly, I don't have a clear fix for that other than the club needing to just rebound in that area. Only five Cardinal hitters were above average with runners in scoring position last year, with Brendan Donovan the best of the bunch posting a 117 wRC+.

But there is another glaring weakness the club had last season that they need to address if they want to win more ballgames, and that is their struggles against left-handed pitching.

The Cardinals ranked 22nd in all of baseball last year with a 91 wRC+ against southpaws. For a number of years, producing against left-handed pitching was the Cardinals' greatest strength, but it fell off in a big way last year.

The Cardinals debuted their new lineup for when they face right-handed pitching already, and while that lineup is a massive step in the right direction, the club also needs to consider shaking things up for their approach to left-handed pitching in 2025.

Below I want to present to you the lineup I believe is best equipped to face left-handed pitching in 2025, and then a breakdown of why I made the choices that I did.

Here is the Cardinals best lineup to combat left-handed pitching

1. LF Lars Nootbaar
2. 1B Willson Contreras
3. SS Masyn Winn
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. DH Luken Baker
6. C Ivan Herrera
7. 2B Brendan Donovan
8. RF Jordan Walker
9. CF Victor Scott II

Here's the bad news: The Cardinals only have four hitters on their roster who were above league average against lefties last year. Here's the good news: All four of them destroyed southpaws in those opportunities.

Willson Contreras (147 wRC+ in 90 PA), Masyn Winn (125 wRC+ in 195 PA), and Lars Nootbaar (125 wRC+ in 109 PA) have each proved to be major assets against left-handed pitching. Luken Baker did as well, but in a much smaller sample size in St. Louis (182 wRC+ in 22 PA), though he mashed left-handed pitching while in Memphis last year as well (1.094 OPS and .702 SLG in 163 PA).

Ivan Herrera (97 wRC+) and Jordan Walker (97 wRC+) were close to league average, but every other returning Cardinal was well below average when facing southpaws. While the Cardinals surely expect bounce-back performances from Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan against lefties, as things currently stand, they are facing a situation where they are extremely top-heavy in terms of production against lefties.

Because of this, I think it's paramount, at least early in the season, to get Nootbaar, Winn, Contreras, and Baker as many at-bats against lefties as possible. Whenever a southpaw is on the mound, they should make up the top and heart of the order so that the Cardinals can score as many runs as they can off of that starter.

Since Nootbaar is already leading off against right-handed pitchers, keeping him in that spot makes a ton of sense for continuity. Nootbaar posted a .358 OBP against lefties in 2024 and carries a career .349 OBP against them, so he makes perfect sense as the club's leadoff man, no matter who is on the mound.

Batting second in Masyn Winn, and before you remind me, yes, I have been advocating for Winn to be moved down to the bottom of the lineup all spring. Winn struggled batting leadoff in 2024 (93 wRC+) as opposed to the bottom of the order (149 wRC+), so the club would be wise to place him back down there...against right-handed pitching.

Against lefties, it's actually a whole different story. Not only did Winn post a 125 wRC+ against southpaws in general last year (which was a .253/.318/.500 slash line), he was actually even better leading off against southpaws (128 wRC+). Winn displayed the best power numbers against lefties of any Cardinal regular last year (.500 SLG, 9 HR, 13 2B, 2 3B), and they'd be wise to get him into run-scoring opportunities as much as possible. And yes, for those wondering at home, Winn posted a 132 wRC+ hitting against lefties with runners in scoring position when slotted in as the leadoff hitter.

So why not have him lead off again? Simple. OBP vs. SLG. Nootbaar and his .358 OBP against lefties are perfect for the leadoff spot, while Winn and his .500 SLG should be hitting behind guys who are on base. Willson Contreras boasts both an elite OBP (.389) and SLG (.493), so putting him in the second hole, like he is against righties, makes a ton of sense. Winn would then bat behind two elite on-base hitters and let his .500 SLG go to work, assuming he is able to maintain a high level of success against lefties in 2025.

Now, if you're counting at home, Luken Baker seems to be the logical clean-up hitter here, but I don't imagine the Cardinals will move Nolan Arenado out of that spot for a little while. But, again, I do think swapping out their fifth hitter against righties, Alec Burleson, for Baker makes a ton of sense. Burleson was awful against left-handed pitching in 2024 (.195/.229/.286 slash line with a 43 wRC+, worst on the team other than Jose Fermin), so he needs to be replaced in those lineups.

Baker then brings his powerful bat to hit behind Nootbaar, Contreras, Winn, and Arenado, and then later in games when a right-handed pitcher comes in, Burleson is there to pinch hit and give the Cardinals the platoon advantage again.

After Baker, the names could be rearranged if you have a different preference, but since Herrera, Donovan, and Walker all have similar profiles against lefties, I think having Herrera bat sixth makes a lot of sense. If the Cardinals want to bring in Burleson later in the game, not having Donovan bat right behind him helps avoid a potential run of lefties in the lineup that an opposing manager can attack with a lefty out of his bullpen. Donovan would then bat seventh with Walker following him, and then Scott would round out the order.

The problem with the Cardinals' current options versus left-handed pitching is that no matter how you slice it, the bottom of the order and transition to the top of the lineup will be dicey until some other names can step up and produce. If you only have four hitters who excel against lefties and the rest are below-average or bad, you can't really hide that. But what you can do is maximize the number of at-bats your best hitters are getting, and then also position your lineup to continue to do damage when a right-hander does come in.

A note for future reference is that if the Cardinals want to add another bat to the mix to help them against lefties, Thomas Saggese would be a worthy addition to the lineup. In Memphis last year, Saggese slashed .250/.311/.469 against lefties (.780 OPS), and if the Cardinals slid Nootbaar to center those days and Donovan to left, you could start Saggese at second base.

What do you think of this lineup? I really like it compared to other ways they could arrange it. Will it be perfect? Nope. But it should help them produce better results than what they got in 2024 against those pesky lefties.