A rotation full of question marks could actually be an improvement for the Cardinals

Matthew Liberatore will receive his first Opening Day start as the St. Louis Cardinals host the lefty's original team on Thursday. The former Tampa Bay Rays top prospect will look to continue his progression as a starter and lead a pitching staff full of exciting unknowns.

The Cardinals rotation has plenty of turnover but should still see positive progress during the first year of the rebuild.

Last season, the entire Cardinals starting rotation could be counted on to take the ball every fifth day, which is usually a recipe for success on playoff contenders. The opposite was true in 2025, though, as four of the five pitchers who started at least 20 games recorded double-digit loss totals, with eight wins being the highest number by those four pitchers. Two of them, Miles Mikolas and Erick Fedde, are pitching elsewhere, while Andre Pallante looks for improvement after recording just one win after the All-Star break.

The biggest loss from last year's rotation is Sonny Gray, who was dealt to Boston early in the offseason for talk of camp Richard Fitts and prospect Brandon Clarke. Losing Gray is a sort of necessary lateral move, as he provided solid value but was being paid as a rotation ace for a team that was not in postseason contention. Bloom did send $20 million along with Gray, but the trade opened up a spot in the rotation for other arms to get their shot at the big league level. The Cardinals did not waste much time filling that hole, signing Dustin May to a one-year deal with a mutual option for the 2027 season. This move was seen as an obvious match from the start of the offseason and is a win-win move for both parties.

May has flashed electric stuff this spring and will look to prove his health after a solid 2025 season. In what might be a best-case scenario for the pitcher and organization, a good first half will make May attractive to plenty of teams in playoff contention, driving the trade value higher for any return to St. Louis in a deal. The signing provides a veteran to pair with Liberatore at the top of the rotation, despite May being just 28 years old and having just one full season of work as a starter. Libby looks to prove his value with a mid-rotation floor and the potential to be a quality starter on a postseason team. From all reports, the lefty is ready to take on the challenge of leading the staff as a 26-year-old in just his second season as a full-time starter.

Behind those two is Michael McGreevy, whom I see as being the most consistent, even if that means boring, arm in the rotation. That is not saying anything about his personality, as he has been very outgoing with a fun demeanor, but more a reference to his repertoire being solid, if unspectacular. McGreevy fills up the zone, but lacks the overpowering stuff of his peers to tally double-digit strikeouts in a start. In a rotation that may need someone to rely on for quality innings, McGreevy is a perfect guy to fill the role for 30 starts and 160+ innings this year.

Rounding out the rotation are two guys looking to prove their starting worth, with Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy holding onto the spots they had to protect this spring. Pallante's struggles could be blamed on his command, specifically of his secondary stuff, but the former reliever seems to have made some adjustments to find the zone more consistently. Through his 14 spring innings, Pallante struck out 11 and walked four but looked more comfortable on the mound. Leahy is also looking to complete the reliever-to-starter transition, and a solid 2025 season out of the bullpen offered that opportunity. The early returns on the shift are solid, with Leahy striking out more hitters and walking fewer in his small spring sample size. Even with workload restrictions pending, Leahy could still provide value at the back of the rotation.

At some point this year, we should also expect to see Richard Fitts get the call to the bigs after flashing electric stuff during his spring showcase. He saw an impressive uptick in his stuff since coming over in the Gray trade, but needed to rein in his command to beat out any of the rotation holdovers. The same story can be said to a point for Quinn Mathews, who saw some big league camp time again in Jupiter but needs more time in Memphis. Finally, additional trade compensation Hunter Dobbins will likely get time with the major league team when he is fully recovered from his ACL surgery.

The Cardinals rotation is built differently than in years past, and that makes me more optimistic for this year's team than the national media is. The projections show the Cardinals winning somewhere in the 70-game range, which is eight games fewer than the team with the worse rotation. If this year's starting staff can outperform last year's, then we should see the win total creep above that 70 line.