Blueprint for Cardinals' new-look rotation has a track record of success

After another round of roster assignments, the St. Louis Cardinals are moving closer to their Opening Day 26-man roster without many surprises popping up outside of left field. One of the battles that may have ended up being a competition in name only was in the rotation, but that could be coming to an end soon.

Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, and Michael McGreevy have all been seen as true locks for the 2026 rotation since the signing of May to make up for the loss from dealing Sonny Gray. Outside of those three, there seemed to be at least seven candidates for the rotation who all had major league experience, along with a few prospects who looked to impress while in big league camp. At the outset of spring, roster holdovers Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy started with having the final two spots in the rotation to lose, and it looks like they have held onto them for the time being.

Matthew Liberatore's move to the rotation could be a precedent for Kyle Leahy's transition from the bullpen.

In the 2024 season, it appeared as if we should be ready to accept that Matthew Liberatore might be best utilized as a valuable reliever after a successful season out of the pen. When the Cardinals said he would be entering into the rotation competition during last year's Spring Training, I thought they were just doing him a solid with a chance at starting again, but having the ultimate outcome being him staying in the pen. Turns out I was way off, and now Liberatore is vying for an Opening Day start and a long-term future with the Cardinals.

That success has created a new level of confidence in the player development staff, who has been tasked with transitioning their pitching growth from pitch to contact to strikeout stuff. According to Oli Marmol, whom I was fortunate to have the opportunity to be involved in a Zoom with, the manager and coaching staff want Kyle Leahy to follow that same blueprint for success. When asked about how the rotation is shaping up, including the possibility of a six-man setup, Marmol specifically noted that they are impressed with Leahy and how they want him to win the job.

While on the call, Marmol specifically said he "really wants to see him in the rotation" and how the entire coaching staff has been impressed with how thoughtful and committed he has been in his starting prep. From what Leahy has shown so far this spring, the Cardinals should continue to roll with him every fifth or sixth day until proven otherwise. The plan is already in place, and the Cardinals have a pretty darn identical situation for moving yet another reliever to the rotation. I compared Liberatore's 2024 season, his last season before starting, to Leahy's 2025 campaign, which if he makes the rotation, will be the same one that set up his full-time move to the starting five.

2024 Matthew Liberatore: 60 games, 86 innings, 7.95 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, 42.2% GB%., 4.40 ERA, 4.17 xFIP, 21.2% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate, 1.27 WHIP

2025 Kyle Leahy: 62 games, 88 innings, 8.18 K/9, 2.86 BB/9, 43.8% GB%, 3.07 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 22% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate, 1.23 WHIP

Holy cow. Looks pretty close to me, even when you measure in the fact that the two pitchers are actually very different from each other. Beyond the obvious Liberatore being a lefty, Leahy was never a high-profile starting prospect and switched to relieving three seasons ago. They both have a solid quartet or more of pitch offerings, but Leahy has historically offered a little more swing-and-miss potential. If the Cardinals' pitching development team could copy/paste what they learned from Libby last season and add a few minor tweaks to prevent the second-half breakdown, this could turn into another pitcher who could extend his stay in St. Louis a little longer, or, at the age of 29, the Cardinals could capitalize on his value at the deadline.