Dustin May's health will be a key for the Cardinals' rebuild

When the St. Louis Cardinals tapped into the free agent market and signed starter Dustin May, it seemed like the easiest match out there for both player and team. Chaim Bloom was praised for not overthinking things and locking in May, albeit for a one-year deal and a never-exercised mutual option for the 2027 season.

Dustin May needs to stay healthy for the Cardinals to get their best return on investment

When May was brought in, it took a little bit before we got the full terms of what turned into a simple rental contract, but I was hoping for a little more flexibility for the Cardinals in the agreement. If the second year of the deal was guaranteed, Bloom and his staff would be able to hold some leverage in talks with other teams, or even with May when discussing his future in St. Louis. With the trajectory of the 2026 season to be that of a rebuild, the one-year contract makes it a forgone conclusion that May will be pitching elsewhere after the Trade Deadline.

Even though he has not yet thrown a regular-season pitch for the Cardinals, this is still a bummer of a reality because of the question marks throughout the entirety of the rotation, May included. I do understand the nature of the one-year deal, though, as May is hoping to be back on the open market after proving his health was not a fluke, and the short-term pact makes it as low-risk as possible for Bloom. However, May is one of the lone veterans on the pitching staff and being surrounded by a bunch of bounceback candidates or inexperienced arms made me look at May as a potential stabilizing rotation piece.

The injury history is a big question, of course, which is why a two-year agreement could also give the Cardinals some breathing room. If May is to miss significant time this season, his trade value could get swept away and the Cardinals would need to either hold onto him, knowing they will likely lose him for nothing in the offseason, or trade him for pennies on the dollar just to get something in return. Because of the reality that exists around May's health, the Cardinals need him to stay injury-free, not for their success this season, but to continue to revamp the minor leagues and hopefully speed up the rebuild as much as possible.

Assuming that May is healthy and producing as a front-of-the-rotation arm, there will be plenty of teams calling Bloom to add the starter for their own playoff run. FanGraphs sees May as being a solid starter in 2026, projecting him to win 11 games with the most strikeouts on the staff. In a recent episode of Cardinals on My Time, I used his fWAR projections to swipe him in the later rounds of our Brothers vs. Brothers draft with the anticipation he will provide more value for a contender once he is traded out of St. Louis. When he is out of the rotation, the story will turn to who takes his spot in St. Louis, which could go a long way to leading us towards some long-term answers in the starting five.

Regardless of where Dustin May finishes the 2026 season, it is important for both pitcher and current team that he stays on the mound as much as possible. In another universe, maybe May could pitch so well the trade return becomes an extension.