A middling season from Jordan Walker could be the Cardinals' worst-case scenario

Since his highly anticipated debut in 2023, all eyes around the St. Louis Cardinals fanbase have been riveted on outfielder Jordan Walker, the team's 2020 first-round pick who laid waste to the minor leagues. But between the Cardinals' horrendous handling of the young prospect and Walker's on-field struggles in 2024, Walker's career has not gotten off to the smooth start that fans had hoped for.

Although Walker is just 22 years old, the 2025 season is being viewed as a crucial one for his future and one that will dictate how the Cardinals handle him in the coming years. If he breaks out and has a career season, the Cardinals know that they have a potential franchise cornerstone on their hands. If he falls on his face and fails to materialize into a serviceable major league player, the Cardinals will likely curtail his future playing time as they decide he is not a fixture in the organization's plans.

Cardinals fans have already seen the latter situation play out with Nolan Gorman. After a season that saw Gorman hit .203 and strike out a whopping 37.6% of the time, the Cardinals have relegated him to a bench role.

But what if Walker is just adequate in 2025?

An average year from Walker would not be a good sign for the Cardinals.

A season from Walker that doesn't open eyes one way or the other could be the most dangerous outcome for the Cardinals. The front office will see his pedigree and may believe that the team can still fix him, thus keeping him in the lineup every day while searching for a level that doesn't exist. The Cardinals did this with Dylan Carlson for two and a half seasons after his 2021 performance, and he never approached those numbers again in St. Louis. Tyler O'Neill was another example of the team attempting to coax more production out of a player, although his issues were related more to his inability to remain on the field.

Walker has shown signs of progress this season, especially on defense, and Walker and other members of the team have been complimentary of new hitting coach Brant Brown. At the Winter Warm-Up, Walker expressed his excitement to get the season underway because of everything that he was learning from Brown. But if Brown can't mold Walker into a solidly plus hitter, Walker may not have what it takes to excel at the highest level.

One of Walker's most pressing issues the last two seasons was his propensity to pound the ball into the ground, and that rate is higher than ever in 2025, at 51.4% of batted balls. Walker's top-tier exit velocity has allowed some of these grounders to get through as hits, but his continued problems with lifting the ball could become his undoing.

The incoming front office transition from John Mozeliak to Chaim Bloom could see the Cardinals take a new angle on Walker if he does have an average season. The front office has appeared terrified to move younger players for fear that they will become the next Randy Arozarena, Sandy Alcantara or Zac Gallen, but Bloom may buck that recent trend and deal Walker if he is perceived to still have some value remaining.

If Walker succeeds or fails, the Cardinals will have an answer on the direction they should take their team. But if Walker is simply fine in 2025, the Cardinals could remain devoted to a player who has already reached his ceiling. We've seen that song and dance before.