Nolan Gorman's trajectory is mirroring that of a former failed Cardinals prospect

The St. Louis Cardinals' Opening Day roster has been finalized, with a few surprises among the names. Victor Scott and Michael Siani are both making their way north with the team, with Scott named as the starting center fielder to begin the season. Scott's presence in center means Lars Nootbaar is slated to start most games in left field, with Jordan Walker in right. It also allows Brendan Donovan to be the team's normal second baseman. With Alec Burleson and Willson Contreras expected to earn the lion's share of designated hitter duties, that leaves one player hung out to dry.

Previously assumed to be a lock to serve as the Cardinals' starting second baseman, Nolan Gorman looks to be peering in from the outside for at least the first few weeks of the season. In 2024, Gorman struck out in a mind-boggling 37.6% of his at-bats, and he has not performed well in spring training in 2025, hitting .189 in 53 at-bats.

Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak acknowledged that Gorman might not see the field as much as he and the Cardinals originally expected.

"I definitely think he's going to have to move around the field a little bit...we're going to do our very best to get him those at-bats. The first month, he's going to need patience because we want guys to get into a little bit of a groove."

John Mozeliak

The Cardinals' inability to trade Nolan Arenado is having a deleterious effect on Gorman, as there was thought that Gorman would be the team's everyday third baseman after Arenado had moved on as part of the team's "youth movement." But as Arenado remains in St. Louis, manager Oli Marmol must handle the unenviable task of mixing and matching players and positions, which will prevent Gorman from appearing in the lineup more often than not.

The loss of playing time for Gorman, a former top 100 prospect in baseball, is reminiscent of that of another once-highly touted outfielder for the Cardinals.

Gorman's career is veering toward that of Dylan Carlson.

Much in the same vein as Gorman, Carlson was thought of as a future centerpiece for the Cardinals. MLB Pipeline ranked Carlson as the team's top prospect in 2020 and 2021, but after a promising first full season in 2021, where he hit .266 with 18 home runs, Carlson failed to adjust to pitchers and hit just .230 over the next two seasons. He bottomed out in 2024, hitting just .198 with St. Louis before being dealt to the Tampa Bay Rays at the trade deadline for relief pitcher Shawn Armstrong.

Prior to the 2024 season, Carlson was stuck behind Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker in the outfield, and the emergence of Alec Burleson during the first half of the season pushed him down to fifth outfielder status before the Cardinals traded him.

Gorman has experienced a similar career path to this point. After a 2023 season that saw him bop 27 long balls and slug .478, the second baseman regressed massively in 2024, and the Cardinals' choice to carry both Scott and Siani on the roster to begin the season provides a somber realization on how the team views Gorman's future.

The Cardinals' decision to hold on to Carlson long after he had been sapped of his trade value has been a source of lamentation for the fans and front office, and the Cardinals may be looking to avoid that mistake with Gorman by dealing him while he still possesses some of his prospect luster. Gorman's power capabilities are worth salivating over, and many teams would likely love to take a crack at acquiring the rare middle infielder who can hit 20+ home runs a season.

If Gorman breaks out with another team, many fans would direct their ire toward the Cardinals front office for not providing him a longer leash, but it would be a change from the Carlson approach, where the Cardinals have been seemingly terrified to part ways with its young players until it's too late to receive anything of substance.

The Cardinals showed with their roster choices that they have made up their mind on Gorman and turned their eyes to Scott as the next player they hope to mold into a star. The team clearly sees Gorman heading down the Carlson route, and it appears that the club isn't interested in having him try to prove otherwise. For a team that supposedly wants to give younger players all the chances in the world, their choice not to commit to the 24-year-old Gorman is a damning indictment.