St. Louis Cardinals Trade Debate: Righty Carlos Martinez

Carlos Martinez has not truly been healthy for years after COVID-19 derailed his 2020 season. Should the St. Louis Cardinals trade him?

So far, we have started the trade debate around Tyler O’Neill and Daniel Ponce de Leon. While the decision was split on both of them, I am not sure things will be so split on today’s St. Louis Cardinals player, Carlos Martinez.

It has been a very unfortunate few years for the talented righty. Injuries limited Martinez to just 167 innings between 2018 and 2019. Many people seem to forget, but between 2015 and 2017, Martinez looked like a blossoming ace, all before his 26th birthday.

2020 was supposed to be the year that Carlos put everything together again. That couldn’t have been further from the outcome though.

Martinez made his first start of the year on July 28th against the Minnesota Twins. In 3.2 innings he gave up six runs and only struck out two. It was an awful way to start the year, and the fanbase was not in Martinez’s corner. After the game, the nightmare began for the Cardinals as they got back their first two positive COVID-19 tests. Fast forward 17 days and the Cardinals suffered through the worst COVID outbreak of any team in the MLB.

Martinez was one of the first players who had it, and it’s not out of the question to assume he was infected while he made that first start of the year. It later came out that Martinez was one of the players who ended up needing to go to the hospital because their symptoms were so bad.

Martinez was never able to get back to a high level of performance this year. He finished with a 9.90 ERA, -0.2 fWAR, and the lowest K/9 (7.65) of his career since his rookie year in 2013. To be fair, Martinez was unlucky, with his FIP a whole 3.01 points lower than his ERA and his xFIP another point and a half lower at 5.21.

This was also over just 20 innings. Like Jack Flaherty, I believe that Martinez wants to wipe his slate clean and just look towards 2021.

Should Martinez still be on the St. Louis Cardinals at that time?

Way back in 2017, Martinez signed a five-year, $51M deal with team options for 2022 and 2023. At the time, this deal was extremely team-friendly and was still a bargain in 2018 and 2019 when Martinez was a lights-out closer.

Now, if Martinez can return to the rotation in 2021 he will be a bargain at $11.7M. The two options are at $17M and $18M, still a bargain if he’s healthy in the rotation.

While the Cardinals do need proven starting pitchers after Dakota Hudson had Tommy John surgery, but Martinez is a guy who could benefit from a change of scenery.

According to Derrick Goold, the Cardinals are expected to explore trades for Martinez this winter. Around the league, there are plenty of players like Martinez who are in need of a change in scenery.

The problem for the Cardinals is that Martinez’s value is about as low as it will get right now. The team control and potential add to his value, but his on-field performance is not doing his trade value any favors.

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Many teams would likely be interested in a player like Martinez, but the Cardinals just need to answer the question of whether or not they are finally going to let Martinez go. Boston originally signed Carlos Martinez and the Cards swooped in after the deal fell through.

Boston has the outfielder Andrew Benintendi who looks like a guy who needs a change of scenery. Benintendi would be an intriguing target and there are more like him out there.

Trading Martinez would be a good way for the team to free up almost $12M this winter but again, the risk is that the rotation ends up being a weakness in 2021.

I would guess that most fans want Carlos gone, but I still think there is plenty left in the tank. For me, it all comes down to whether or not a team is willing to part with an offensive upgrade for him. If not, there is no point in trading CMart for a low-level prospect.