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St. Louis Cardinals: An early look at an approach for the offseason
With the offseason coming up, it is time to see the St. Louis Cardinals’ options for improving a struggling offense and getting them over the hump.
The shortened 2020 MLB season is already starting to come to a close, and the St. Louis Cardinals are currently holding on to a playoff spot for dear life, which is pretty impressive given the brutal schedule they had to endure over the past few weeks.
Though the Cardinals will likely be playing October baseball (unless a meltdown happens against the Milwaukee Brewers), the offseason will be approaching us very quickly. Yes, the Cardinals are playoff contenders for the time being; but if they are serious in wanting to take their team to the next level and not be content with mediocrity like they have been the past few years, this offseason is more important than ever.
As you may know, there are two ways for the Cardinals to acquire talent during the offseason, which is utilizing the trade market as well as signing free agents.
Over the past few years, the Cardinals have spent more time prioritizing trades over free agency, shelling out pieces in their farm system in exchange for sluggers like Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna. They have also found success in international pitching, with signing players like Kwang-Hyun Kim and All-Star Miles Mikolas.
According to Spotrac, the Cardinals have $122M tied to the 2021 roster already. The luxury tax threshold for 2021 will sit at $210M, but it could end up lowering due to a deficit of revenue this season from COVID-19. Assuming the threshold stays put, the Cardinals will have about $90M to work with this offseason.
Given the Cardinals’ recent spending history, they likely won’t get anywhere near the threshold, so we are going to assume payroll will either stay right around the $175-180M mark they sat at before the 2020 season began.
Step One: Arbitration
In approaching the offseason, we need to first start looking at settling arbitration deals for our young talent. Jack Flaherty and Harrison Bader are both names who stand out and could receive sizeable paydays this offseason. With Flaherty already being an elite tier pitcher, he could hurt the Cardinals’ pockets a little bit.
Assuming the Cardinals follow suit of similar pitchers, Flaherty should be in for about a $7M payday. Harrison Bader, Jordan Hicks, and John Brebbia should be able to account for about $6M combined. Adding the money from our current pool, this gives St. Louis about $47M remaining to spend before that $175-$180M threshold.
Step Two: Extensions
The Cardinals have a few players that will hit free agency this offseason, including Future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina. Though Molina stated in the past that he would retire after the 2020 season, he has now had a change of heart and wants to stick around in St. Louis, as long as the feeling is mutual from the Cardinals.
If I were the Cardinals, I wouldn’t bring him back unless he agrees to take a significant pay cut. Though Molina has done a ton for St. Louis and it is very well appreciated; he has lost a major step offensively, and his bat is starting to become a liability in the lineup. With top prospect Andrew Knizner patiently waiting for his opportunity, this could be a good time to let Molina walk.
Knowing the Cardinals and how overtly loyal they are to their players (excluding Albert Pujols), they will probably give Molina an unnecessary payday, docking about $12M from the payroll.
Another player hitting free agency is INF Brad Miller. The Cardinals signed Brad Miller towards the end of Spring Training as a depth piece, and he has done a pretty solid job for the ballclub this season; hitting a .242/.373/.477 line with seven home runs. He started the season looking like Mike Trout but has since struggled and regressed.
Throughout Miller’s career, he has always been more of a journeyman, playing for six different teams in eight seasons. So, I would expect Miller to test free agency waters and find a new home this offseason.
The last player hitting the market will be Adam Wainwright. We haven’t heard much about whether the 39-year-old will sign his third consecutive one-year deal or hang up the cleats. He is in the midst of a very solid season though, putting up a 3.05 ERA and a 3.81 FIP. His curveball has treated him very well this season.
Mark Saxon of The Athletic stated in a radio interview that he couldn’t see Wainwright going out pitching this well and that he might want to give it another season. Bringing back Wainright wouldn’t be an awful idea, so I believe that giving him a contract similar to the one that he had received last offseason is more than fair for both sides, so we will dock $5M from the payroll.
Combining the 2021 salaries of Wainwright and Molina, the Cardinals now have $30M reserved for free agents and the trade market if they wish to utilize that.
Step Three: Free Agents and Trades
Now, here is the part everybody has been waiting for. Who will the Cardinals acquire over the offseason? Before we spitball any names, let’s take a look at the biggest needs on the Cardinals roster and go from there.
Our biggest priority going into the offseason should be finding a new everyday third baseman. Matt Carpenter clearly isn’t the guy anymore and isn’t showing any positive signs that he will be ever again. Tommy Edman would be a pretty solid option if the Cardinals want to continue being mediocre, but why not go big or go home at third base.
The Cardinals have a problem in the outfield, they do have a glut of players. However, I wouldn’t expect them to roll away from a Dylan Carlson, Harrison Bader, and Dexter Fowler trio next season with Lane Thomas or Tyler O’Neill as the fourth outfielder.
The Cardinals will be bringing back their entire bullpen next season, and that is now confirmed with Andrew Miller triggering his vesting option for the 2021 season on Sunday. I wouldn’t expect the Cardinals to make any significant upgrades here either, especially since their rocket-armed closer in Jordan Hicks will be returning.
Up next is the rotation. Four spots in the Cardinals rotation already seem set for next season with Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson (if healthy), Adam Wainwright, and the return of Miles Mikolas. This leaves room for one more spot.
Kwang-Hyun Kim has done a phenomenal job in the rotation this season, as he currently holds a 1.36 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP with one more start to go. Kim isn’t a big strikeout guy, but he does generate weak contact with one of the lowest hard-hit percentages in baseball. He is more than deserving of that fifth spot and should be able to win it with a solid spring.
As stated, the Cardinals need a massive upgrade at the hot corner, and with top prospect Nolan Gorman not being ready for a couple of years, the Cardinals could use him as a trade piece to acquire a superstar at the position and make the Cardinals a force in the NL.
Paul Goldschmidt has quietly had a very solid 2020 campaign and is starting to regain his old form slightly, but his job could become way easier with another stud in the lineup. With the Colorado Rockies looking to potentially trade arguably baseball’s best third baseman in Nolan Arenado, this couldn’t be a more perfect match for St. Louis.
Last offseason, the Cardinals did have some trade talks with the Colorado Rockies and got very close before COVID-19 got in the way. Chances are, those talks will continue to heat back up come winter. Undoubtedly, it will take No. 2 prospect Nolan Gorman, a third baseman who oozes raw power, to satisfy the Rockies, but it will probably take more than that as well.
Tyler O’Neill has been buried in the Cardinals farm system despite being a former Top-100 prospect. The Cardinals could help unload some of that glut in the outfield by including O’Neill in the trade. O’Neill is also a power-first hitter, which would be super beneficial for the Rockies in high-altitude Coors FIeld; where the balls obviously fly. The only question is how the money will work with Arenado’s big contract.
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With the Cardinals acquiring a new superstar in the lineup and making their offense officially a force to be reckoned with. They will still need some depth though.
With this season’s free-agent market being weak for hitters, the Cardinals could end up bringing back utility man Brad Miller on a short term deal if he doesn’t find a home over the offseason. If he does, an option could be reuniting former utility man Jedd Gyorko, who is having a solid season for the division rival Milwaukee Brewers.
If the Cardinals can make a splash at the hot corner for Arenado and provide some more depth offensively, this team will be dangerous. A perfect combination of pitching, hitting, speed, and fielding will make them very hard to beat, especially in a seven-game series. If I were John Mozeliak, I would do exactly this; and make the Cardinals an elite team instead of swimming in mediocrity.
Next. Jeff Albert should be on the hot seat. dark
This offseason is very important in determining the identity of the Cardinals organization. Will they finally have the stones to go all in or will they continue to ride on the coattails of their past? Hopefully, they finally realize that the baseball we have been witnessing for the past few years isn’t good enough, and we make a big splash that will get us over the hump.