Where do Colorado, Arenado and the St. Louis Cardinals go from here?

A baseball player with almost a quarter of billion left on his contract burning a bridge with the franchise on the hook for paying him, is unprecedented. Nolan Arenado clearly wants out. What will his club do? What can Arenado’s suitors, like the St. Louis Cardinals, do in order to take advantage of the turmoil?

I will assume for purposes of this article that everyone is familiar with the situation regarding Colorado Rockies’ third baseman Nolan Arenado. If not, you can read articles first here and then here and here. I want to focus on what can happen next and how it may involve the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Rockies have found out the hard way that a contract with a player containing a no-trade clause, a player opt-out on the front-end, and a huge price tag, is really a one-way contract.

The Cardinals and Texas Rangers are the two “strongest suitors” of an Arenado trade at this point. But will he even be traded?

Cutting right to the chase, here are the things that can happen:

The Colorado Rockies can fire their entire front office as an apology to Arenado.Rox Pile calling seem theoryWith their trade leverage vastly reduced since everyone knows Arenado wants out, the Rockies can just “switch up” and decide to play Arenado for the whole two years.

Believe it or not, there are worse things than having a player on the threshold of Hall of Fame greatness and grooming himself for a deal with say a Yankees or Dodgers (his home town) playing 300 plus games for you. Coors Field would be in store for some major structural damage the next two years! And whether it is for income tax reasons or because the players union has sold the fiction that a player’s skills don’t drop off until he is in his late 30’s, the annual payments are very flat, meaning the Rockies are paying the same (or less) for Arenado in his prime as they (or the Dodgers) would be for his “sub-prime” years.

Even though the Rockies have lost an enormous amount of leverage the past 24 hours they could certainly trade Arenado for some future prospects with what leverage they have left. Arenado, himself, will have to start the trades.reportedly dictating becomes the franchise.and must, because players unionxyzThe St. Louis Cardinals, facing something of a backlash for losing free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna over $200,000, can step up their pursuit, having gained the leverage that the Rockies lost.Dakota Hudson salaries need to be capped at around $170 million Carlos Martinez Dexter Fowler Matt Carpenter Brett CecilThe Cardinals are in an even better position to play a waiting game, than they were before the blow-up, as long as other teams reportedly interested in Arenado do not get ahead of the Redbirds in the hunt.

Time is on the Cardinals side,

somewhat

. The purpose of 2020, as established in the post-season press conference, was to give certain players time to get it together (veterans) or

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show their stripes (rookies). “Creating opportunities” as President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak called it. The Cardinals will know a lot more soon about how their outfield has come together without Marcell Ozuna. The Cardinals will know a lot more soon about whether Matt Carpenter has returned to the 140 wRC+ talent-level he displayed only a season ago and in too-infrequent flashes last year. The Cardinals will know a lot more soon about whether Adam Wainwright‘s arm is holding up, Jordan Hicks‘ arm has returned and Carlos Martinez’ arm has found a role that serves the team and Martinez best. In short, the Cardinals will find out soon how badly they need Arenado, how much they can tender to get him, and whether they can possibly afford to wait for him until his buy-out happens in 2021. In short, they will find out soon how much trading from pitching depth or outfield-prospect depth they can afford.

The situation with Nolan Arenado is unprecedented in its scope. Arenado, the Rockies, and the Cardinals all have hands to be played. But it is high-stakes poker. Each hand will have to be played very deftly. Perhaps the cards can be played out in a way that makes winners out of all three of the Cardinals, Rockies and Arenado.

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