St. Louis Cardinals: What did the team get in Austin Dean?

On Tuesday the St. Louis Cardinals added another outfielder to the fray via trade with the Marlins. Who is Austin Dean and how can he help the team?

The St. Louis Cardinals made a trade on Tuesday afternoon, just not the one that fans wanted. Just days after trading away a couple of outfielders, the team is bringing one in the other way. It may have been far from Nolan Arenado, but the Cardinals could’ve gotten a sneaky-good player in the 26-year-old Austin Dean from the Miami Marlins. Let me explain.

First of all, Dean came extremely cheap. In exchange for the outfielder, the Cardinals gave up Diowill Burgos, another outfielder. Burgos put up pretty good numbers in the Dominican Summer League, but the 18-year-old struggled at Rookie Ball. He wasn’t a top-30 prospect and is far enough away where giving him up isn’t very risky.

In Dean, the Cardinals are getting a depth piece whose track record isn’t that different from Randy Arozarena. Arozarena may have been moved in the Matthew Liberatore trade, but he was one of the best offensive producers at any level of the Cardinals organization in 2019.

In 400 AAA at-bats, Arozarena hit for a 1.003 OPS with a .344/.431/.571 slash line. He hit 15 homers and stole 12 bases. For the Marlins’ AAA affiliate, Dean (in 285 at-bats) hit for a 1.035 OPS and a .337/.400/.635 slash line. Dean hit 18 homers and stole three bases. Dean is clearly a different type of hitter, but they both enjoyed a ton of success at the AAA level at a more advanced age (25 for Dean and 24 for Arozarena).

The reason that I am telling you Dean’s AAA stats first is that when you look at the MLB numbers, it’s nothing pretty.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

After getting a taste of the MLB in 2018 without any success, the dumpster fire Marlins gave Dean some more opportunities in 2019, with a similar level of success. Digging deeper into FanGraphs and Baseball Savant, there may be encouraging signs.

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First of all, Dean has not been lucky at all at the MLB level. In 2018 and 2019, his BABIP was .241 and .270. That is well below average. Before claiming bad luck, his 2018 hard-hit percentage was a below-average 34.1%. That explains 2018, but in 2019, that jumped up to about 5% above MLB average to 39.1%. This jump corresponded with about a .8 mph jump in average exit velocity from 87.5 to 88.3 mph.

That exit velocity is not necessarily amazing but it’s better than league average and marks an improvement, even in two sample sizes that are too small to draw large judgments off of. The unfortunate thing with Dean in 2019 is that in just 64 games, he accumulated a -0.7 fWAR. This is largely due to his 71 wRC+ and aided by a slightly below-average defensive output.

Dean is a corner outfielder/first baseman and as I mentioned, is slightly below average in right field (-2 DRS) and left field (-5 DRS) while being average at first base (0 DRS). The problem is that all of these statistics were taken from a very small sample size without consistent playing time.

Dean does have one of the best outfield plays ever though, so he seems like a likable guy.

Austin Dean is not the starting left fielder the Cardinals have been searching for that is going to break out and be an MVP. That’s not how these trades work. The Cardinals sent off outfielders from the upper levels of the Minors and now are replacing that with a guy who is a lottery ticket. That’s all.

Burgos is more of a lottery ticket and the price of Dean shouldn’t be worried about. Dean could spend some time in the Majors this year, but I would expect he slides in the depth chart behind Dylan Carlson, Lane Thomas, Tyler O’Neill and others.

As far as this being a precursor to another move, who knows. The team has been reported to be shopping Dexter Fowler and in the case of them moving on from the right fielder, Dean’s depth will be good to have.

There are also the Nolan Arenado rumors, but I wouldn’t read too deeply into either. The Cardinals got a player who could potentially be a power source off the bench for a cheap price. Nothing more needs to be said.