How the St. Louis Cardinals rotation stacks up against Atlanta’s

As the St. Louis Cardinals and Braves face off in the postseason for the first time since 2012, which team has the upper-hand when it comes to starting pitching?

St. Louis Cardinals fans can finally breathe. After a rocky 4-game losing streak, the Cardinals pulled off a blowout win against the Chicago Cubs to seal up the NL Central title and a trip to Atlanta to play in the NLDS against the powerhouse Braves.

The Braves have a very good baseball team, finishing the season with 96 wins; and are loaded with a murderers-row lineup consisting of studs like Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Ozzie Albies, and Ronald Acuna Jr. Their offense is dangerous, but alike the Cardinals they have a pretty solid rotation.

The Cardinals and the Braves both have strong suits, with St. Louis having their lights-out bullpen and the Braves having an offense that ranges in the top 4 in many categories.

Their weaknesses flip-flop though, as the Cardinals offensive struggles have been the reason for many of their losses this season. The Braves, on the other hand, rank in the bottom ten out of all of baseball for bullpen WAR, and they have not been able to find an established closer either, which could be an issue for Atlanta heading into the NLDS.

Both teams’ rotations line up pretty well though actually. Let’s take a look at who the likely starters for the NLDS  will be and how they stack up to each other.

Jack Flaherty vs. Mike Foltynewicz

Two young studs in Jack Flaherty and Mike Foltynewicz will go for Game 2 of the NLDS.

Had the division been clinched earlier than Sunday, the Cardinals ace would have more than likely be the starter for Game 1. The Cardinals started to take a quick slide and the NL Central title came down to the last game of the season, in which Flaherty had to pitch to help guarantee the Redbirds the NL Central title.

Jack Flaherty had a very rough go of things to start the season, posting a 4.75 ERA around the July 7th mark. Something turned on for Flaherty though, and after a rough start against the Seattle Mariners; we wouldn’t see a bad version of Jack Flaherty at all for the rest of the season.

Flaherty posted a historic second half, totaling a 0.91 ERA after the All-Star Break; which was good for the third-best ERA EVER. Behind Hall of Famer Greg Maddux and 2015 Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta.

Flaherty vaulted himself from being a mediocre starter in the rotation to one of the best pitchers in baseball, and found himself near the top of many rankings stat-wise, including having the highest WHIP in all of the NL. He will earn some Cy Young votes for sure.

The Braves will be sending 2018 All-Star Mike Foltynewicz to the mound for Game 2.

Foltynewicz enjoyed a career year in 2018, posting a 2.85 ERA while surpassing the 200 strikeout mark as well. He even finished eighth in the NL Cy Young race.

2019 has not been ideal for Folty though, he dealt with multiple injuries that sidelined him until mid-May and he couldn’t get going in the Majors after that, resulting in a demotion to AAA Gwinnett.

When the Cardinals return to Atlanta, keep in mind that the offense absolute murdered Folty during his last time against them, putting up 8 runs in less than three innings on him. He throws hard and has solid stuff but lacks the control he possessed from 2018; which has been a case for his regression.

Advantage: Jack Flaherty

Dakota Hudson vs. Mike Soroka

Dakota Hudson and Mike Soroka have been arguably the two best rookie pitchers in the league this season, and we could very well see them face off in Game 3 of the NLDS.

Dakota Hudson was a former MLB Pipeline Top 100 prospect and he has put together quite the season for the St. Louis Cardinals.

When it was announced that top starter (now closer) Carlos Martinez would have to miss some serious time with an injury, there was an open spot in the Major League rotation. Dakota Hudson seized that opportunity and pitched his way to a spot on the OD roster.

Hudson was off to a rough start in the MLB rotation, but settled in with a very solid May campaign and found himself as the only starter in the rotation with a sub-4 ERA.

He finished the 2018 season with very solid numbers, totaling a 3.35 ERA, which was good for 11th in the National League. Something that is worrying with Hudson is that he has a very high FIP and also led the MLB in walks. His ERA-FIP difference was 1.58; which is very drastic.

A lot of analysts say that Hudson has just been getting very lucky, well not quite. Like Keuchel, Hudson pitches to contact and has even induced the highest groundball rate in all of baseball at 58.1%. His groundball rate paired with the stellar infield defense behind future Gold Glover Kolten Wong and All-Star Paul DeJong has played a huge part in his success this season.

Mike Soroka put together a marvelous rookie season for the Atlanta Braves and could earn himself a few votes in the NL Rookie of the Year race as well as the NL Cy Young race

Soroka finished the 2019 season with the third-lowest ERA in all of the NL at 2.68. Like Keuchel though, he is a pitch to contact pitcher as he only had 142 strikeouts on the season, compared to Flaherty’s 231.

The rookie is best known for his filthy sinker. It can touch about 95 miles per hour and can get almost any hitter to bite on it.

Advantage: Mike Soroka

Adam Wainwright vs. Max Fried

Though it is looking like the Braves will start rookie Max Fried for Game 4 of the NLDS, he might not go very long since he will be coming out of the bullpen as well.

Adam Wainwright has the most playoff experience as a pitcher out of anybody in the league. He has been in the playoffs in almost every year since his first World Series championship in 2006. He knows the environment, he knows the pressure. Having Wainwright go Game 4 is perfect, especially since it will be an elimination game for one of the teams.

The 37-year-old has enjoyed a very solid season, but mainly at Busch Stadium; where he has a 2.56 ERA, we won’t talk about his road splits; because they just are not good. I doubt he even sees a start outside of Busch during the postseason anyways.

We all know that Wainwright’s velocity is way down. He is only throwing about 90 mph, so he is reliant on his curveball; and it has gone a very long way for him this season. His curveball spin rate ranks in the 83rd percentile and he goes to it 36.8% of the time. He rarely uses his fastball, which is in the bottom 4th percentile in velocity out of the entire MLB. So he’s using finesse rather than power nowadays.

Max Fried has experienced more of a rollercoaster 2019 campaign, putting up All-Star caliber numbers up until May; then things took a turn for the worst when he had a May ERA of 5.38. He bounced back from that though and finished the season with a 4.02 ERA.

Like Wainwright, Fried has a disgusting curveball that he isn’t afraid to use as well as a high voltage fastball, but he has his struggles with command and also has a 4.92 ERA outside of SunTrust Park.

If Fried is used out of the bullpen, he could probably not surpass four innings which means that the Cardinals will see a rigid Braves bullpen for the majority of the game.

Advantage: Adam Wainwright

There are many ways this series can shake out but for the Cardinals, their starting pitching is going to be one of the biggest keys to the series. They have been a strength all year but now is when it matters most. There is a definite advantage the Cardinals have in their starters and they must take advantage.