St. Louis Cardinals: Be wary of banking on Tommy Pham

Tommy Pham had a breakout 128 games for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2017, and now he is the centerpiece for the 2018 lineup. That may not last all that long.

It is always difficult to trust a follow-up to an excellent year, and Tommy Pham’s case is no different. The soon-to-be-30-year-old St. Louis Cardinals centerfielder finally put together a healthy year and hit over .300. There is no denying that what he did last season was amazing, and it would not be crazy to think he could do it again, but I just don’t see it.

In Pham’s only other long stint in MLB, his strikeout rate was up around 40 percent. His 2017 number sat just over 20 percent. A frequent thing I will say is that his numbers will regress to the mean. Whether that be the 20 or 40 percent, or somewhere in the middle, an increase in strikeout rate will not help his cause.

One thing that seems to remain consistent is his isolated power; he posted a .214 in both 2016 and 2017. That shows a reliable number, but that is if Pham can keep up the average. That number helps quite a bit more if he hits .306 than if he hits the .226 he did in 2016.

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His numbers in 2017 are undeniably impressive, but can St. Louis Cardinals fans truly bank on gaudy numbers like a .356 BABIP to continue? No, and the ZiPs projections agree with me. They also project that his wRC+ will drop out of the stratosphere and fall to 115, still above average.

It is fair to say that Pham cannot be expected to recreate the insane numbers of 2017, but I don’t think he will post the kind of numbers he needs to keep a starting spot. Harrison Bader is coming up quickly and got his first MLB taste last season. If Pham does regress as I think he will, he won’t be in that lineup long.

In 32 games, Bader did not impress a ton based on numbers alone. But even with that, he is ready to be at the MLB level and just needs the playing time. So, if Pham isn’t cutting it, then the younger outfielder just might do the trick.

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It would not be surprising for Pham to have a good year, it is just something I don’t see happening. His crazy 2017 is probably out of the question. Mostly, it will be if he can stay healthy enough to have a chance to put together a good follow-up season. Either way, it is almost time to see what will happen.