St. Louis Cardinals: 12 potential cuts before Opening Day 2018

After missing the playoffs for the second consecutive season, many pundits surrounding the St. Louis Cardinals have predicted significant off-season turnover. Here are 12 players I think could be on the chopping block before 2018 begins. 

2008 was the last season that saw the St. Louis Cardinals miss the playoffs in two consecutive years. Following a World Series title in 2006, and an abysmal follow-up season in 2007, the 2008 Cardinals finished 86-76, 4th in the NL Central and four games back of the Wild Card winning Brewers.

Led by National League MVP Albert Pujols, who put up 9.2 bWAR, alongside Ryan Ludwick and Troy Glaus, the 2008 Cardinals’ offense finished 10th overall in runs scored with 779 and second overall in total offensive fWAR with 32.4. The team K rate of 15.5% was 3rd lowest, but only seventy-one stolen bases and a -10.0 Fangraphs BsR both ranked 5th worst in the league.

So, offensively, the Cardinals were led by an all around superstar MVP candidate and supported by two other particularly standout performances, which all added up to an above average overall offensive performance despite being poor on the bases.

In 2017, the Cardinals were led by an all around superstar MVP candidate (Tommy Pham) and supported by two other particularly standout performances (Paul DeJong and Jose Martinez), which all added up to an above average offensive performance (12th in MLB in runs scored, 100 team WRC+,) despite being poor on the bases (only 71 stolen bases and a -1.8 Fangraphs BsR).

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Oh but the comparisons don’t stop there.

The 2008 Cardinals were featuring a new General Manager in his first season of work as John Mozeliak had been promoted in November of the previous year.

The starting pitching ERA’s are eerily similar (4.13 in 2017 and 4.19 in 2008) and the team fielding percentages of .986 are exactly the same.

The only major difference between the 2017 and 2008 teams are that Tony La Russa’s bunch played exactly up to their expected Pythagorean record of 86-76, while Mike Matheny’s bunch came up five wins short of their expected Pythagorean record of 88-74.

PLEASE FIRE MIKE MATHENY.

Okay, that’s it. Thanks for reading!

Just kidding.

About that being the end of the article, not about firing Mike Matheny.

Anyway, my point in comparing the 2017 Cardinals team and the 2008 team? Well, yesterday on 101ESPN’s ‘Kevin Wheeler Show’, MLB.com Cardinals’ beat writer Jenifer Langosch said that she “wouldn’t be surprised” if “10-12” players from the current 40 man roster are no longer with the team at the beginning of the 2018 season.

.@LangoschMLB says she wouldn't be surprised if 10-12 players on the #STLCards current 40-man roster turn over by the start of 2018.— Kevin Wheeler Show (@WheelerShow101) October 5, 2017.@LangoschMLB says she wouldn't be surprised if 10-12 players on the #STLCards current 40-man roster turn over by the start of 2018.— Kevin Wheeler Show (@WheelerShow101) October 5, 2017

Such a turnover would be justified with the Cardinals having missed the playoffs for two consecutive seasons for the first time since 2008, and there was a similar turnover in the offseason after the 2008 team missed the playoffs for two consecutive seasons for the first time since 1999.

On Opening Day 2009, thirteen players that had been on the 40-man roster at the end of the 2008 season were no longer there. The Cardinals had undergone a massive face-lift in their chase for the playoffs, and it paid off with a five win increase and the team’s first division title since 2006.

Also, a midseason trade for Matt Holliday sure didn’t hurt things. But, regardless of that, the Cardinals trimmed significant age and fat off of their roster in the 2008 offseason.

Of the thirteen players who no longer found themselves employed by the Cardinals on Opening Day 2009, ten of those players were age 30 or older. John Mozeliak removed veterans in order to make way for young players from the Cardinals’ consistently good farm system.

History repeats itself, and 2017 finds the Cardinals in a similar position to that 2008 team, with some significant changes needing to be made to the roster. So, out of the forty guys currently on the roster, let’s make some cuts before the 2018 season.

I don’t have exact replacements in mind for the players I’ll list. I just want to get an idea of the 10-12 players Jenifer Langosch doesn’t expect will be back in St. Louis on Opening Day 2018. So here we go.

#1: Lance Lynn – Starting off with a sadly obvious one. Lynn has hinted during interviews on more than one occasion that he doesn’t expect to be back in St. Louis, as the Cardinals reportedly have not shown interest in negotiating a contract extension with him. I don’t believe he’ll be back, as the Cardinals have plenty of other younger, cheaper options. Farewell to a media legend.

#2: Seung-hwan Oh – Another free agent I don’t expect to be re-signed. Oh is 34-years-old and coming off an injury filled, dreadful season. His first season in St. Louis was magical, but with a pipeline of young pitching beginning to make its presence felt, there’s no need for a devaluing 34-year-old still getting the lion’s share of bullpen innings.

#2b: Eugene Koo – I WANT TO KEEP EUGENE, THOUGH. I LOVE HIM. AUGH, NOW I’M SAD ABOUT OH LEAVING.

#3: Zach Duke – Basically the same situation as Oh, except Duke actually pitched fairly well after his remarkably quick Tommy John recovery. But still, a 34-year-old LOOGY shouldn’t be a payroll priority.

#4: Alberto Rosario – Out of options and with Andrew Knizner beginning to push for a 40-man roster spot, Rosario is a prime candidate for a DFA and release.

#5: Mike Mayers – A prime DFA candidate, Mayers has proven himself as a Quad-A pitcher, meaning he can thrive at triple-A, but not at the big league level. A career 19.80 Major League ERA in ten IP backs that up.

#6: Alex Mejia – At 26, having posted an OPS no higher than .744 in any single season during his minor league career and having gone five for forty-seven during his Major League stint this season, Mejia is out of options and blocked up in the Cardinals’ system. At least he made it up this season, nobody can ever take that away from him.

#7: Randal Grichuk – With Tyler O’Neill now eligible for the Rule 5 draft, the Cardinals essentially need to choose between him and Grichuk to make room on the 40 man. I’ve made my stance on the matter clear in an earlier article, but if you forgot, here’s a cliff notes version: O’Neill >> Grichuk.

#8: Josh Lucas – Another one in the Cardinals’ extensive collection of Quad-A players, Lucas is a strong candidate for DFA, especially with Dakota Hudson, Sandy Alcantara, Jack Flaherty and potentially Alex Reyes all ahead of him in the bullpen pecking order.

#9: Ryan Sherriff – Austin Gomber is newly eligible for the Rule 5 and, considering the lack of quality left-handed starters in the Cardinals’ organization, he needs to stay. Pardon me, but there should be a new sheriff in town on Opening Day 2018.

#10: Breyvic Valera – Alex Reyes is coming back from Tommy John, which means that another casualty must be inflicted so that the crown jewel of the farm system can return to prominence. Valera has been an honorable soldier, having just finished his 7th season in the organization, but his time has come.

#11: Kolten Wong – If you were waiting for the hot takes section, YOU HAVE ARRIVED. The Cardinals want an impact bat, but are (likely) unwilling to shell out top $ for JD Martinez or Justin Upton. Wong is the Cardinals top trade bait and would be included in any potential impact bat trade.

#12: Luke Voit – Of all the decisions I’ve made so far, this one was the toughest. Voit is out of options and, with Matt Carpenter and, presumably, Jose Martinez ahead of him in the 1st base pecking order in 2018, it’s tough to see him making the Opening Day roster.

Also, Oscar Mercado is coming off a breakout 2017 season at double-A Springfield in which he set career highs in all slash lines (.287/.351/.438) and stolen bases (38), all while playing CF. Mercado is Rule 5 eligible and Voit is my unfortunately selected casualty.

After two straight disappointing seasons in which the Cardinals reasonably had the talent and ability to make the playoffs but came up maddeningly short, an overhaul is not only expected, but paramount. These 12 players may just be a start to the proceedings in St. Louis, but they are likely to be the first heads up on the metaphorical chopping block.

Next: St. Louis Cardinals: Still in search of our identity

We’ve already seen Derek Lilliquist and Blaise Ilsley let go, so the front office has proven themselves agreeable to the idea of a significant organizational turnover. Either way, 2018’s Cardinals could look radically different to 2017’s.

Here’s hoping that radical change is positive, much like it was in 2009.