St. Louis Cardinals: No October This Year

The St. Louis Cardinals, carrying a .500 record over the past ten games despite a poor home record of 16-23 on the season, are not so likely headed into postseason.

While sitting in second place in the National League Central, the St. Louis Cardinals are simply not good enough (as showing now) to make this year’s postseason. Currently at 10.5 games back of the division leading Chicago Cubs, these Cardinals are missing something and are very likely not going to catch the Cubs.

Even despite great seasons from Matt Carpenter, a surprising superstar in Aledmys Diaz, and even the good pitching of Carlos Martinez, this team is just not good enough. The not-their-regular Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, and Trevor Rosenthal might be spelling an outcome undesirable by all St. Louis Cardinals fans.

I know, I know… this sounds horrible but let’s get real here. If the 2016 campaign ended today (on July 1), even after defeating the Milwaukee Brewers, the St. Louis Cardinals still find themselves in 2nd place of the NL-Central and 4th place in the wild card race.

Second place in the NL-Central at a massive ten games back means climbing this hill is probably not the way into the postseason. Turning our attention to the wild card, the St. Louis Cardinals sit only one game back in fourth place behind the Dodgers, Mets, and Marlins. This route, therefore, makes the most sense.

Sticking with this thinking, let’s look at those teams on top in the wild card.

First up, the Dodgers. This year’s Dodgers have a record of 44-37 and have gone 6-4 in their last ten games. Six games back of their division’s leader, the Giants, and with the disabled list assignment of power arm, Clayton Kershaw, might mean that the Dodgers could start slipping for their perch.

Second in the wild card rankings is the New York Mets. The Mets have a record of 42-37 and have gone 5-5 in their last ten games. Like the Dodgers mentioned above, the Mets sit six games back of their division’s leader, the Washington Nationals, the Mets too have an uphill climb to win their division. No injury on the horizon makes me feel the Mets might be here to stay in the wild card race.

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Third in the wild card rankings is the Miami Marlins. The Marlins have a record of 42-38 and have gone 5-5 in their last ten games. The Marlins are third in their division behind the Nationals and the Mets and sit 6.5 games back. While good, the Marlins are not the Mets and, while they may keep pace, I don’t see them overtaking either of their division leaders.

That brings us to the St. Louis Cardinals. Our Cardinals have a record of 41-38 and have gone 5-5 in their last ten games.

See a trend here? Has it occurred to you that the 2-, 3-, 4-ranked teams in the wild card race hold a 5-5 record across the past ten games? And that these teams trail the wild-card-leading Dodgers by less than one game (Dodgers have gone 6-4 in last ten, not 5-5).

With only one game separating the four wild card teams, this is where the real excitement lays waiting this season for the Cardinals. Rather than wishing and hoping for some NL-central miracle, the St. Louis Cardinals should focus on knocking off their wild card rivals.

And therein lies the problem, in my opinion. Therein lies the reason why I say that this year’s St. Louis Cardinals will not see playing time in October.

Why? Looking simply at these three teams, I just don’t see the Cardinals overtaking them. Keeping pace, maybe, but not overtaking them. The Marlins, maybe, but if all things stay as they are today, this would only put the St. Louis Cardinals in third place in the wild card race.