St. Louis Cardinals Best/Worst Case: Matt Holliday

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When healthy, Matt Holliday is a virtual lock for 20 home runs and 80 RBI. How will the St. Louis Cardinals left-fielder respond to age questions in 2016?

Matt Holliday was sorely missed by the St. Louis Cardinals when he went down last year. The Cardinal lineup just didn’t have the same authority without their center piece in the three-hole.

While Holliday has yet to eclipse 30 home runs in any given season with St. Louis, he’s still been the most consistent power source the Cardinals have had since coming over from the Rockies in 2009.

Feb 25, 2016; Jupiter, FL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday (7) during photo day at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /

Without counting his injury shortened 2015 campaign, or the half of a season with St. Louis after his acquisition from Colorado in ’09, Holliday has averaged 24 long balls a year with 93 RBI per season.

He’s slashed .295/.383/.496 in five full seasons (excluding 2015) since 2010. His OPS of .879 ranks 16th in Major League baseball over that time period.

With the Cardinals having a team option on Holliday for 2017, this season will be an important one for the 36-year-old slugger. Holliday has made it known that he wants to retire in St. Louis.

Could Holliday draw on the power of the beard for his first 30 home run campaign since 2007? If that were the case, the Cardinals would most definitely pick up his option.

Will Holliday hold up in left field? Could we actually see him at first base this season? There are a lot of different ways 2016 could play out. What happens this season will go a long way in forecasting Holliday’s future and whether it is in St. Louis or elsewhere.

Next: Best Case: Holliday's Resurgent 2016

Oct 10, 2015; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday (7) during batting practice before game two of the NLDS against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

Best Case: Same old Matt Holliday, and then some

No pun intended on the “old” thing there.

In 2007, Matt Holliday smashed 36 home runs with 137 RBI and a .405 OBP. His 216 hits (.340 average) ranked second only to Ichiro Suzuki who turned in 238 that year.

Interestingly, Holliday wasn’t even a top-10 finisher in WAR that year. His 5.8 WAR value was good for 14th in baseball, and was a full 3.4 points lower than leader Alex Rodriguez (9.2).

Still, Holliday was the NL MVP runner-up to the Phillies’ Jimmy Rollins, narrowly missing out on the MVP honors with 75% share of the vote compared to Rollins’ 79%.

Yes, I know that Holliday was 27 that year, and yes I know that he played in hitter friendly Coors Field for half of his games. But, in best-case predictions, I’m calling for a similar season in 2016.

With a resurgent 2016 campaign, Holliday has his option picked up for 2017. The physical specimen seems to be in the best shape of his life, a true credit to his top-notch workout program.

Matt Holliday best-case stat line in 2016:

.315/.405/.510 with 37 home runs, 120 RBI, 100 runs scored and 45 doubles.

Next: Worst Case: The Old Man with the Bum Quad

May 13, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday (7) reacts after being hit by a pitch during the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports /

Worst Case: Quad problems linger, age shows, Cards move on

While the Cardinals don’t anticipate any further complications from Holliday’s right quad strain from a season ago, there’s always the “what ifs.”

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What if something fishy happens with that quad again? Is it smart to have Holliday lugging around in left field, the place where the quad problems originated?

The Cardinals can’t afford to lose Holliday for 80+ games again this year. If Holliday wants to return to St. Louis in 2017 and finish his career here, he can’t afford that either.

Worst case, Holliday falls victim to the quad again, or is limited by it significantly in 2016. He becomes a complete liability in left field, and without strength in his drive leg at the plate, Holliday’s offensive numbers go into free fall mode.

Ahead of September and October, the Cardinals decide that it is in their best interest to go young in the outfield. They plug Tommy Pham in at left field, relegating Holliday to pinch hit duties.

The Cardinals decline Holliday’s option, making him a free agent. He signs on with a bad AL squad as their designated hitter and finishes his career in irrelevancy.

Next: My Prediction for 2016

Oct 3, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; St. Louis Cardinals left fielder Matt Holliday (7) is congratulated after he hits a three run home run in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in game one of the 2014 NLDS playoff baseball game at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports /

My Prediction: Holliday turns in a very solid 2016, earns 2017 option in St. Louis

I see 20 home runs and 75 RBI as baseline expectations for Holliday this year. Anything less would be a disappointment, anything more would be a solid campaign.

Similarly, I think that if Holliday matches those numbers I just listed, he’s a lock to get that 2017 option. After another middling season offensively for the Cardinals, they won’t be able to afford letting a producer like Holliday walk away.

But, I think he hits the 20 home run mark easily, and blows by 75 RBI at the same time. An OBP around .380 for the seven-time All Star sounds about right.

I hope we see at least a little bit of Holliday at first base this spring, just to know whether or not moving him over there would be a realistic option.

If he has no feel for the spot, so be it. At least we know. If he can handle things over there (as I think he definitely could) that gives you a lot of options should Matt Adams and Brandon Moss falter at first base.

I used to always get worried watching Holliday track fly balls in left field. After last year, that worry is going to be amplified. I used to cringe and hope he’d catch the ball, now I will be cringing and hoping he doesn’t pop that quad again, whether he catches the ball or not.

Next: Best/Worst Case: Kolten Wong

I hope that Holliday comes out looking strong and fresh in left field… only time will tell.

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