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St. Louis Cardinals Hot Stove: To qualify or not to qualify John Lackey
John Lackey, the defacto St. Louis Cardinals’ ace this past postseason is likely not going to return to the Cardinals next season, this is in part due to that the Cardinals have already decided to exercise the option on Jaime Garcia.
However, the Cardinals will be faced with the decision of whether they want to offer Lackey a qualifying offer, in order for the team to recoup a draft pick in the case that he decides not to resign. Today, we are going to explore both sides of the decision that looms this Friday.
Qualifying Offer Pros
If the Cardinals do happen to offer John Lackey a qualifying offer the number one pro for this is the draft pick. This is pretty obvious and it would be a key asset for the Cardinals and their scouting department. The Cardinals’ have done a really good job in recent years of acquiring these types of picks, they’ve done it with Kyle Lohse and Carlos Beltran in the years since this became a rule in 2012-13. In the previous system the Cardinals took advantage of this by drafting Michael Wacha, when they lost out on Albert Pujols.
These picks in the new system have resulted in Rob Kaminsky and Jack Flaherty. One of those players is no longer with the organization and Flaherty is developing into a solid starting pitching prospect.
However, this all hinges on Lackey declining the qualifying offer, which will be $15.88 million this season. If he accepts the offer, the Cardinals will have John Lackey under contract for one more season at the aforementioned price. This is not necessarily a bad thing, as there are definitely questions regarding the 2016 Cardinals’ rotation.
Wacha has been deceptively good over the duration of his brief career until the second half of the season when the lack of fastball command finally caught up to him, so who knows what the Cardinals will get next year? Lynn was largely unimpressive last season at times, can he finally be a consistent pitcher? Jaime Garcia has struggled with injury after injury, will he be healthy? Last but not least, Alex Reyes is not ready to be a step in guy in the big leagues quite yet.
Therefore, John Lackey very well could be needed on this team to help balance the rotation out, and serve as a bit of an insurance policy or motivation to trade someone currently in the rotation (someone not named Carlos Martinez and Adam Wainwright). If Lackey brings back his career low ERA and WHIP, that may not be a bad thing to have. It would also be nice to have another strong veteran presence on this team to go along with Adam Wainwright.
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Qualifying Offer Cons
The con is a pretty big one here, the Cardinals would be on the hook for a large deal for a 37 year old starting pitcher if Lackey accepts. Yes, Lackey had career numbers this past season and helped push the Cardinals through a season without their ace Adam Wainwright. But, there is no guarantee what we would get out of Lackey next season if he were to accept the offer.
He’ll be the back end of the rotation with Adam Wainwright coming back and the emergence of Carlos Martinez. The qualifying offer puts the Cardinals starting pitchers at a combined $66.4 million which works out to be about $11 million a piece, which is not necessarily that bad. However, it may potentially handcuff the team with other free agency plans.
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Ultimately, I think that if the team does not have interest in having John Lackey return next season, then we won’t see them extend a qualifying offer his way. Lackey may be looking for a two to three year deal to finish out his career, so the team may have some intel in that area. This may have some bearing on the decision of the team. If the team is ok with having Lackey back on board then you will see them have no issue in offering the qualifying offer.
What are your thoughts? Do you want John Lackey back?