1 major reason why Cardinals shouldn't spend big this offseason, aside from the money

St. Louis Cardinals ownership will likely get a lot of flak from fans this offseason for not going out and spending big money. While I don't blame fans for being frustrated about how the last few years have gone and how long it took Bill DeWitt Jr. to make changes, what's done is done, and the Cardinals are on the front end of a rebuild.

Now, while the Cardinals refuse to use the word rebuild, I do not, because I'm not scared of the word. This "rebuild" is not what the Houston Astros or Chicago Cubs did in the early 2010s, tearing things down to the studs and taking a five to seven-year outlook. This should be a much shorter cycle, but one that is extremely necessary for the club to get back to where we all want them to be: a legit contender for the World Series.

With that being said, there are still some out there clamoring for the Cardinals to sign a big-name free agent, and I want to remind everyone of one big reason, aside from the money, why that would be a mistake this offseason.

The Cardinals are not ready to add a big free agent contract, and losing a draft pick to do so would rub salt in the wound

In 2025, the Cardinals finished with a 78-84 record, missing the postseason for the third straight season. Due to some teams being ineligible for the draft lottery this year, the Cardinals are slated to have the eighth-best odds in this year's lottery and will be selecting in the top half of every round.

We don't yet know what kinds of competitive balance picks the Cardinals may receive this offseason, but it's safe to say that they'll have quite a bit of high-end draft capital for the 2026 MLB Draft, something that could go a long way toward accelerating their rebuild. Signing a big-name free agent this offseason may actually slow down the plan Bloom is putting together.

As a revenue-sharing recipient this year, the Cardinals would lose their third-highest draft selection in the 2026 MLB Draft if they signed a player who received the qualifying offer this offseason. That applies to 13 players this offseason: Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Bo Bichette, Dylan Cease, Shota Imanaga, Edwin Diaz, Ranger Suarez, Michael King, Trent Grisham, Gleyber Torres, and Brandon Woodruff.

The Cardinals paid that penalty in consecutive years after signing Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, but in those cases, they lost their second-round picks as a result.

Guess who Chaim Bloom selected with his third-highest selection during the 2022 MLB Draft while running the Boston Red Sox? Budding superstar Roman Anthony. Kristian Campbell, who was one of the top prospects in baseball heading into the 2025 season, was drafted even later in the 2023 draft.

No, I'm not saying the Cardinals are going to land a star prospect with their third pick in the 2026 MLB Draft, but they could. And even if they don't, that selection could result in a productive big leaguer that will impact the club on a cost-controlled deal when they are in contention, and that is a valuable thing. Heck, they could even be a trade piece for a future deal down the line.

Personally, I wouldn't feel comfortable giving a long-term deal to any of those free agents this offseason if I were the Cardinals. They are a mixture of great or really good players, but I have my doubts about whether or not they'll be worth the money by the time the Cardinals are true contenders again. Why not wait a year or two and sign a guy like that, or even better, when the window is opening?

Now, I'm certainly in favor of the Cardinals getting creative and targeting interesting arms who did not get the qualifying offer this offseason. Guys like Dustin May, Tyler Mahle, Walker Buehler, and others have their flaws, but they also offer upside that could pay off in a big way for St. Louis, and wouldn't require the big contract or loss of draft compensation either. The Cardinals can explore those markets, and if the deal makes sense, I'm all for it.

Like Chaim Bloom has stated on many occasions, taking shortcuts and looking at band-aid solutions at this stage of the rebuild would be detrimental to the Cardinals' plans. If they stick to their guns, even if it is unpopular with some fans, Bloom believes it will pay off in the long run, and actually even bring a contender to St. Louis sooner than you'd think. I agree with him.

That posture can't stay forever. Whether it is next offseason, or more likely, in two or three offseasons, the Cardinals will have to jump in and spend again. They must be willing to play in the high-end free agent market when the opportunity makes sense in the future. No, they don't need to become the Dodgers or Mets and sign mega-deals every offseason, but they shouldn't always avoid that market.

But for now, the timing doesn't make sense, and I think Cardinals fans will thank Bloom later for not making an impulse signing this winter.