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We made it to the end of another struggle of a St. Louis Cardinals season, but it turns out it may not be as bad as we thought. Fans found out after the All-Star break that the Cardinals actually are eligible for the upcoming MLB Draft Lottery, even after taking part in the drawing each of the past two seasons.
The Cardinals have another chance at a top-6 pick in the MLB Draft
Thanks to a season-ending sweep at the hands of the rival Chicago Cubs, the Cardinals finished the season with a 78-84 record and missed the postseason for the third consecutive season. During the first half of this disappointing season, it seemed like there was no light at the end of the tunnel until Derrick Goold's report that the team is lottery-eligible again. The confusion, it seems, was the fact that the Cardinals were involved in the lottery process, but the eligible picks are only the top six selections. St. Louis picked fifth and seventh, so they did not receive specific lottery picks in consecutive seasons.
While the Cardinals were still battling for an outside shot at the playoffs, fans were divided on whether they should push for the postseason or tank for the picks. For the fans of the latter, the Cardinals were simply just bad enough that they did not need to try to lose as they ran into the powerful Chicago Cubs lineup that torched the Cardinals' mediocre pitching. The four-game losing streak to close out the campaign gave them the 11th-worst record in baseball, but because the Rockies, Nationals, and Angels are all ineligible for lottery picks, the Cardinals now have the 8th-best odds for the first overall selection.
Last season, the Cardinals had just a 0.8% of the top pick, but the lottery balls fell their way, and they moved up from 13th to 5th, and they used that pick to select high-octane starter Liam Doyle. The year prior, St. Louis had the fifth-best slot but fell to seventh. Despite what seemed to be rotten luck, the Cardinals used that pick on upcoming superstar JJ Wetherholt, and because that pick was out of the top six, they remain eligible for the lottery again this season.
Based on Tankathon's calculations, the Cardinals have just a 2.35% chance for the first overall pick this season, while the teams with the best three odds (White Sox, Twins, Pirates) all have a 16% chance or higher to choose first in July. If St. Louis does move into the top six during this season's lottery drawing, that will disqualify them from being lottery-eligible the next season. As the team looks towards a multi-year rebuild, you have to wonder if they want to move into those slots or remain just on the outskirts so they can still receive high-quality talent, but have the opportunity to move up again next season as their rebuild kicks off in 2026.