Who will round out the St. Louis Cardinals rotation?

With two weeks remaining in Spring Training, the St. Louis Cardinals have yet to make a final determination on their starting rotation. The organization has zig-zagged through an offseason that expected plenty of change, but at this point, the only changes have been from the departure of injured reliever Andrew Kittredge, starters Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, all of whom had expiring contracts after last season.

The thought around the league was that the Cardinals would entertain shipping off some of their expiring pitching contracts this offseason, but the current rotation looks to be set in the first three spots, with Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Miles Mikolas as locks to open the year in St. Louis. Andre Pallante was expected to be penciled into the starting rotation after his strong performance last season, but Katie Woo's recent look at camp battles places him, veteran Steven Matz, reliever/starter Matthew Liberatore, and rookie Michael McGreevy as all fighting for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation.

Who should fill out the St. Louis Cardinals rotation?

Option 1: Steven Matz

I am definitely in the minority among fans but I currently do not see the harm in letting Steven Matz open up the year as a rotation piece for the Cardinals. For one, he would be the lone lefty (spoiler alert for Liberatore) in the rotation, which could break up the steady diet of right-handed contact pitchers. Matz is currently in the last year of his deal at a modest $12.5 million price tag, so I feel it is best for the Cardinals to recoup any possible value from Matz during the 2025 season. Fans were pushing early for a Matz trade in the offseason, but his injury history would limit any real return outside of a low-level prospect or minimal cash savings.

Prior to arriving in St. Louis, Matz was a productive starting arm for the Mets and Blue Jays, throwing at least 130 innings in four of his first five full seasons, not including 2020. Matz has also had a 22% or better strikeout rate in all but two years in his career. His best season was his only in Toronto, where he went 14-7 in 29 starts with a 3.82 ERA and comparable peripherals. Spectacular? No. Effective for $12 million? Absolutely. For comparison's sake, Matthew Boyd, who is a lefty and four months older than Matz, signed with the Chicago Cubs for an average of $14.5 million per year and has not thrown over 100 innings since 2019.

So far in Jupiter, Matz has pitched nine innings, tallied six strikeouts, and allowed three runs on seven hits and three walks. With his expiring contract and the Cardinals not looking like World Series contenders in 2025, it would make the most sense to me to see if Matz can handle the rotation for an extended period of time. When he is healthy, Matz has the ability to touch 96 mph with his fastball and has good enough secondary pitches to make it multiple times through the lineup. If he can maintain his health, Matz would be an early candidate to be sent to a contender (if the Cardinals are serious about their transition) for an actual positive return on their initial investment. If Matz is unable to stay healthy or effective in the rotation, he is an easy candidate to move to the bullpen or then trade for pennies on the dollar.

Option 2: Andre Pallante

I go back and forth on this, and I have had numerous conversations with other fans on X and Bluesky when referencing the rotation battle. Pallante had a very strong, seemingly out-of-nowhere season last year when he returned from Memphis to take the open spot in the big league staff. Last season, Pallante covered over 120 innings and went 8-8 with a 3.78 ERA but, as mentioned before, has a similar pitch makeup to the other right-handers in the rotation, tallying a well-below-average 18.5% strikeout rate. Pallante was able to limit the damage against him with a spectacular 61.6% ground ball rate, but there is always the risk of getting "singled to death" with seeing-eye ground balls finding the holes for hits.

A common response I receive for Pallante is along the lines of "His performance last season has earned him a spot this year," and while I tend to agree, baseball is a game where you have to perform now, because last season does not matter anymore. Yes, I just mentioned Matz's past experience, but his value to the Cardinals is more tied to his expiring contract and trying to recoup whatever value they can. Where Pallante differs is that he still has three seasons of arbitration and an option year remaining. Forcing Pallante back into the rotation because he did well last year is not in the Cardinals' best interest, but I do believe he deserves the first crack at it.

Spring has not been kind to Pallante, as he has a 9.00 ERA through his first three starts, allowing eight runs, two homers, and three walks while only tallying four strikeouts, showing what can happen if he remains unable to make opposing batters whiff. So why should Pallante start if he has struggled this spring and I feel past performance means nothing? Well, mostly because of the value provided from Matthew Liberatore in the bullpen and Michael McGreevy being an "arm in waiting" if any of the previous rotation arms were to falter.

So why not Liberatore or McGreevy for the Opening Day rotation?

Matthew Liberatore had dominated this spring in extended appearances, allowing his first hit of the exhibition season during his last outing. Even with his struggles against the Mets, Liberatore has a 1.86 ERA in 9.2 innings, with five strikeouts and two walks. When the Cardinals sent Randy Arozarena to the Rays for the left-handed pitcher, Liberatore was a top-ranked starting pitching prospect in all of the minor leagues. After he struggled in his opportunities out of the rotation, though, the Cardinals liked his pitch arsenal enough to move him to the bullpen. For his career, Liberatore has a career 3.89 ERA in relief compared to a 5.86 ERA as a starter. Additionally, the lefty has a 21% strikeout rate coming out of the pen and a mediocre 17% rate when he starts the game. For this season, at least, Liberatore should remain in the bullpen until there is a consistent spot available for him in the rotation for one more chance to prove his ability as a starter.

Michael McGreevy's story is different altogether. For one, I am a huge McGreevy believer and love his ability to pitch as a 24-year-old. He has also impressed so far this spring with a 1.17 ERA in 7.2 innings and has not allowed a walk. McGreevy made a strong impression in St. Louis in four games, covering 23 innings and totaled a 1.96 ERA with an 18:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. So if I love him so much, why not have him start? Similarly to Liberatore, I would only want McGreevy in the rotation if there is a consistent opening for him to get an extended run to hold onto the spot. This could come if either Matz or Fedde is traded or injured, which could come at any point during the season's first half. If that is to happen, McGreevy sitting in Memphis for five to ten starts would not be the worst for his development, especially as the Cardinals have worked to revamp their minor league system. The last thing I would want for another young arm is to go back and forth with undetermined roles and the feeling that every time he steps on the major league mound that he has to perform or else be sent down again.

With two weeks remaining in Spring Training and starters now going five or more innings in their starts, this next stretch of games will tell a bigger story into the St. Louis Cardinals' rotation plans for the upcoming season. The increasing number of pitching injuries paired with poor performances around the league may make some of the Cardinals' depth options more attractive to other teams, but for now, I would like to see Steven Matz and Andre Pallante fill out the starting rotation at the end of March.