Which players do the Cardinals actually "need" to trade this offseason?

Depending on what the St. Louis Cardinals' plan is regarding their payroll and which veterans from their roster are actually available in a trade, a name like Miles Mikolas doesn't "need" to be traded, even with how poor his performance has been as of late.

Hear me out before you throw more tomatoes at me.

I'm not here to make an argument that Mikolas is some underappreciated veteran starter who is actually going to bounce back next season or is more valuable than you'd think. He's been bad, plain and simple. If the Cardinals were planning on contending in 2025, there is no world where I think having Mikolas around is a good idea.

But when you consider just how many other veterans the Cardinals could be shipping out this offseason, it actually kind of makes trading or releasing Mikolas less "needed" in my eyes. Here's why.

Let's just consider the Cardinals rotation for a moment. If the club plans on paying the $1 million buyouts due to Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson this offseason and letting them walk in free agency, that leaves the Cardinals with a leftover rotation of Sonny Gray, Andre Pallante, Erick Fedde, Michael McGreevy, and one of Steven Matz or Mikolas. Guys like Quinn Mathews, Sem Robberse, Matthew Liberatore, and Gordon Graceffo could push for spots as well, but it is not "essential" that any of them begin the year in the rotation. In fact, it is probably better to have them ready to go when St. Louis wants to deploy them, rather than force them into the rotation if they need more seasoning.

Now think about if the Cardinals move on from Gray and/or Matz, whose names are far easier to move than Mikolas. That would leave the Cardinals with just two, maybe three arms who you can confidently pencil into the rotation for Opening Day in Fedde, Pallante, and McGreevy, and even then you need to account for injuries. Heck, I could see the Cardinals parting with Fedde as well this offseason considering his trade value.

If I were the Cardinals, I would much rather prioritize trading Matz and Fedde than moving Mikolas. Fedde can actually get the Cardinals a decent return this offseason before hitting free agency next year. Matz has a smaller salary than Mikolas and has bullpen flexibility. If the Cardinals want to move Mikolas, then they are going to need to eat a lot of money and expect nothing in return. Why not move guys who can free up money AND get you something of value?

This brings me back to Gray. Do the Cardinals "need" to trade Gray? Nope. If he wants to stay, well, they frankly cannot trade him with his no-trade clause. If he is open to being moved but also open to staying, the Cardinals can shop him around, see what offers they get, and decide from there. The only way they'd "need" to move Gray is if he requests a trade, which very well could happen.

The exact same scenario is true of Willson Contreras and Nolan Arenado. Contreras should have real value on the trade market in my eyes, and if they can get that in return, it's worth considering. But if they do not like the offers or feel confident that Contreras can lead them to contention in 2026 and beyond, you keep him around. Arenado won't fetch much on the market trade value-wise but he is certainly going to get the Cardinals more than what an Arenado would.

So when it comes to Mikolas, Matz, Gray, Contreras, and Arenado, do the Cardinals "need" to trade any of them? Not really. Will they likely move a few of, or even many of those names? I'd think so. But contrary to what some may be saying right now, I do not think any of those names are "must trades" this offseason.

So what then? Are there any Cardinals who I would deem as guys that "need" to be traded this offseason? Well yes, two to be exact.

The usual preface stands here - if the Cardinals are not getting the kind of offers they need for either of these two guys, it is okay to hold onto them. But in all likelihood, these two names would give the Cardinals offers this offseason that they should not turn down.

Ryan Helsley and Erick Fedde.

I'll round out my comments on Fedde from earlier. I dug into some trade comparisons for him recently on the site and found the Oakland Athletics' trade of Chris Bassit to the New York Mets back in 2022 to be a really helpful comparison of what the Cardinals could fetch for Fedde. It is not a flashy package but would bring real value to the Cardinals' farm system as they look to continue to strengthen it.

Fedde is under contract in 2025 for just $7.5 million, an absolute bargain for the kind of production he put up this season. The Cardinals would be better served shopping him to teams in the market for pitching this offseason than holding onto him for one more year.

Helsley is also a free agent following the 2025 season, but he should bring the Cardinals back a bigger return than Fedde would. I've seen some people downplay Helsley's trade value, but I do believe he will be one of the more valuable trade chips available this offseason. Again, if the Cardinals are not contending in 2025, then having a closer like Helsley on their roster doesn't make a ton of sense. Capitalize on his trade value.

Outside of those two names, I do think the Cardinals need to trade more guys than that, but I don't think it is fair at this stage to say who has to go. We are still unclear on what the Cardinals expected payroll will be in 2025. Do they need to cut significantly due to their investments in player development and the looming uncertainty with their TV revenue? If so, we probably see a lot of those names I have listed shipped out of town. But if we are not talking about the need to slash $80 million or so of their payroll, then there is a decent chance they keep some of those names around.

We'll know soon enough what directions the Cardinals are actually leaning in, and the market will play a large role in whether or not things get done. But as we stand here today, I think it's premature to say that anyone outside of a Helsley or Fedde "need" to be traded this offseason.