Is Ryan Helsley's trade value helped or hindered by closer struggles this postseason?

There has been much debate recently regarding the trade value of St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley.

I've seen some interesting cases thrown out there of how Helsley could be less valuable than many think he is in a trade. Still, overall, my main takeaway from these arguments is that there are not great comparisons out there for closer of Helsley's pedigree being traded while pitching at peak performance levels.

There's a new wrinkle thrown into this conversation though that I want to take a peek at today. If you've been watching the MLB Postseason so far, it's been one of the best in recent memory, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that these lineups have been doing damage against each other's closers late in games - even against the best of the best relievers we have today.

Guardians' Emmanuel Clase just had one of the best reliever seasons of all time, posting a 0.61 ERA in 74 games of work. Opponents hit just .151 off of him this year while allowing only 0.24 HR/9. In his six postseason appearances so far, Clase has been beaten around for a 10.29 ERA, costing the Guardians two games against the Yankees during the ALCS. He has now given up more earned runs in these six games (8) than he did in all 74 appearances in the regular season (5).

Brewers' Devin Williams had a similar experience in his brief two-game sample size against the Mets. While he locked down his first appearances with a save and no trouble on the base paths, Williams served up four earned runs against the Mets the next night, and like Clase, gave up more runs in that series than he did the entire regular season (3 in the 22 games he pitched).

While their collapses have been most notable and they are probably the two best closers in baseball alongside Helsley, we've seen other relievers get beat in big spots (Luke Weaver for example) after being dominant down the stretch. The appeal of having a closer like Clase, Williams, or even Weaver on a heater is that the club can rely on them to shut things down, and not have to worry about things imploding.

It's caused me to wonder a bit, will teams, look at the struggles of a Clase or Williams specifically and hesitate to pay top dollar (or a hefty trade package) to acquire a player like Helsley?

In our overreaction, hot-take culture, I am sure people are going to scream yes. Why pay a closer so much money or trade assets for one if they are going to fail when it is their time to deliver? I understand the sentiment (and in general I don't value closers as much as others), but I just do not see this changing the industry's overall opinion of elite relievers like these guys.

First of all, we are talking about baseball here, and an extremely small sample size at that. Bobby Witt Jr. slashed .192/.222/.192 in his 6 postseason games this year, are we going to act like he's not actually a superstar and incredibly valuable after putting up one of the single-best shortstop seasons of all time?

Closers, even the best, are not perfect. Maybe the Tigers and Yankees found something in Clase's game that is going to make him very hittable going forward, but if you read this great breakdown from CBS Sports R.J. Anderson, it appears that Clase's cutter is breaking more than usual, not being located as well as it usually is, and frankly he has had some back luck as well. These are not excuses for Clase, but rather, just go to show how weird things can happen in the postseason.

Back in 2022, Helsley had his own blown save in the Wild Card Series that seemed out of character and may have cost the Cardinals a postseason run. But if we remember the context, Helsley was dealing with a finger injury he suffered in the last game of the season against the Pirates. When Helsley came into the game against the Phillies, his finger began to numb up on him, and things unraveled from there.

If I am trying to win a World Series, I still want someone like Clase, Williams, or Helsley in my corner to go and shut down opposing teams. Are they more valuable than a middle-of-the-order bat or ace? No, and I never will believe they are, but having someone that elite in the back of your bullpen is a real weapon and one that can give you a major advantage in a series.

Frankly, when you get to this point in October, you're going to be facing elite hitting often. You need as much elite pitching as you can gather to shut that down.

If anything, Clase, Williams, and the struggles of other relievers this postseason have reiterated to me just how valuable it is to have someone come in and shut things down. The Guardians and Brewers are completely different teams when they can hand the ball to Clase and Williams with full confidence. Those guys make baseball an eight-inning game for their clubs. But when they aren't who we know them to be, Cleveland and Milwaukee are vulnerable with a lead.

This postseason has not been kind to elite closers, but don't throw the baby out with the bathwater on this one.