What happens if Cardinals' Nolan Arenado isn't traded by Spring Training?

Ever since it was reported that St. Louis Cardinals' third baseman Nolan Arenado declined a trade that would have sent him to the Houston Astros, the rumor mill surrounding the eight-time All-Star has slowed down.

Beat writer Katie Woo of The Athletic said on one of her recent podcasts that she pegs the odds of Arenado being traded at 50/50 right now, though she did continue saying that these odds in her mind fluctuate by the week. If there is that high of a chance that Nado stays with the Cardinals in 2025, then John Mozeliak and Oliver Marmol may have to change their thinking for next year.

There are several ramifications for the current roster if Nolan Arenado isn't traded.

1. John Mozeliak will have to pivot to trading one of the team's starting pitchers.

Ownership's desire this offseason is to cut payroll. If Arenado's remaining $64 million can't be moved, then other expensive contracts must go. This will come from the starting rotation.

Miles Mikolas is on the books for almost $18 million next year, Steven Matz is owed $12.5 million, and Erick Fedde has $7.5 million due to him next year. Mikolas has a no-trade clause and he's been bad lately, so trading him feels unlikely. Trading one of Matz or Fedde feels achievable and realistic. Erick Fedde has legitimate value, while Steven Matz's value is on the lighter side.

Trading a veteran starting pitcher frees up payroll and opens up a spot for a young pitcher like Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo, Zack Thompson, Quinn Mathews, or even Tink Hence.

2. Nolan Gorman now loses his starting spot.

It's been heavily reported that Nolan Gorman would become the club's everyday third baseman if Nolan Arenado is traded. That would open up second base for Brendan Donovan, and it would keep Mozeliak's stated outfield of Lars Nootbaar, Michael Siani, and Jordan Walker. This would also allow Alec Burleson to be the club's fourth outfielder/everyday designated hitter.

If Arenado remains on the roster on Opening Day, Nolan Gorman is all of a sudden relegated to the club's primary designated hitter or a bench player, especially if Alec Burleson can find his offensive stroke once again.

2025 is the year to see what the club has in its young players. Nolan Arenado remaining on the roster blocks Nolan Gorman from receiving 500-600 plate appearances next year.

3. The Cardinals' defense will be better.

Nolan Arenado staying on the team will move Brendan Donovan to second base, a place where he's been at least neutral according to Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved. Arenado, meanwhile, has been one of the best defensive third basemen in baseball since 2015.

Paul Goldschmidt is no longer vacuuming up balls thrown to him at first base; instead, Willson Contreras will have to make the adjustment to the corner of the infield. Having Arenado play at the hot corner will help Contreras adjust more quickly.

Nolan Arenado being on the roster to start 2025 raises the defensive ceiling of the club significantly. This shores up the infield defense while allowing for the most optimal defensive alignment in the outfield.

4. The farm system won't get another upgrade.

Over the past two years, prospects like Tekoah Roby, Thomas Saggese, JJ Wetherholt, and Quinn Mathews have boosted the Cardinals' farm system. Trading Arenado would only add to that prospect core.

Now, Nolan Arenado by himself won't net a ground-breaking young player. The more cash the Cardinals include in the trade, the better the prospect they'll get in return. Trading Nolan Arenado with a decent chunk of change, say $15-$30 million, would bring back a prospect who would boost the organization's farm system significantly.

By not trading Arenado, the Cardinals' farm system will remain in the middle of the pack across the league.