Veteran pitcher's contract may make it harder for the Cardinals to find a trade match

The St. Louis Cardinals state they are in their rebuild period, but until actual moves end up happening, we cannot be so sure. Especially since last offseason was supposed to kick off said transition but the inability to trade Nolan Arenado had the 2025 Cardinals stuck in neutral.

One of the clearest moves the new regime could make that would signal the beginning of their rebuild would be dealing from their starting rotation. The rotation somehow avoided major injuries, which could have actually led to the demise of the Cardinals' season, as the six-man group combined to post below-average numbers. In this group, Sonny Gray was the front man, leading the team in virtually every pitching statistic but even his season would be seen as a mid-rotation arm at best in a contending team's rotation.

Gray, who was given a no-trade clause as a part of his three-year, $75 million deal signed coming into 2024, has admitted that it may be best for both sides to seek a trade this offseason. On the surface, $25 million per year seems like an affordable price to pay that a contending team could make to bolster its rotation. Based on the estimated $8 million per WAR value, Gray's fWAR was 3.6 this season, saying he outperformed that price tag. His contract, however, was not built to be a clean $25 million per year. In fact, his yearly salary increased each season along with the veteran having an option with a buyout for a fourth season.

Sonny Gray's final year salary could be too much to take on for some contenders

In Gray's first season, he was handed a discount $10 million before that raised up to the aforementioned amount during his age-35 campaign. Therefore, going into 2026, Gray is still owed $40 million to hit the full monetary value of the deal. This year, the veteran's salary will bump up to $35 million. To get the extra $5 million guaranteed, there is a club option for the 2027 season at $30 million, or pay that $5 million as a buyout. In summary, the expectation is that Gray will be effectively playing the 2026 year on a one-year, $40 million price tag.

In terms of fWAR, that means that Gray would have to put up at least a 5.0 season to make that high price worth it. That will be tough for the 13-year veteran to accomplish as the 2025 season was one of his best all-around efforts. His 180.2 innings are the second-most of his career since 2015, while also improving his strikeout stuff and putting up a career-best walk rate. For a below-average Cardinal team, that resulted in a 14-8 record and a 4.28 ERA for the team's de facto ace. Gray will be pitching the 2026 season as a 36-year-old, entering his 14th year in the bigs, and as a pitcher who has had a few relatively minor throwing arm concerns, but has avoided the big injuries.

While it seems likely that the St. Louis Cardinals will deal Sonny Gray this offseason, the real story will be around what the Cardinals will include in a deal. This will determine if the organization is truly looking for simple salary relief or if they are looking to stock the farm system. In order to receive any prospects of note in return, the Cardinals would have to chip in at least half of his $40 million guarantee.