Tink Hence's cautionary tale actually illustrates how important Cardinals' prospect overhaul is

Back in 2023, Tink Hence was the prize of the St. Louis Cardinals pitching pipeline. Three years later, he went unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment and was reassigned by the Cardinals to their Florida Complex League.

Such is the nature of betting on these young, high-octane arms. And while you can never truly guarantee that these arms pan out, there is a strategy that tends to bear more fruit than putting all your eggs in the Hence basket.

The numbers game.

Obviously the Cardinals still need to target the right types of arms (more on that later), but the biggest lesson to be learned from the "fall of Tink Hence" is the fact that the Cardinals had so much riding on him. Where there were a few other interesting names in the system at that time, many of their other arms were low-ceiling, and the few other intriguing arms they had weren't exactly household names.

But again, just as much has changed for Hence over the last few years, the same is true regarding the overall state of the Cardinals pitching pipeline.

Tink Hence's fall from grace is less painful now that Cardinals have revamped their farm system

To better illustrate the stark difference we see today, let's compare the pitching prospects in the Cardinals' top 30 prospects by MLB Pipeline back in 2023 to what it looks like now.

Pitching prospects in the MLB Pipeline's Cardinals top 30 in 2023
Tink Hence (No. 77 in MLB), Gordon Graceffo (No. 79 in MLB), Matthew Liberatore, Cooper Hjerpe, Michael McGreevy, Brycen Mautz, Pete Hansen, Connor Thomas, Inohan Paniagua, Max Rajcic, Austin Love, Austin Willis, Freddy Pacheco, Jake Walsh, Ian Bedell, Ryan Loutos, Dionys Rodriguez, and Andre Granillo

Of this group, really only Hence still had the projected upside of a potential front-of-the-rotation starter, and people hoped that Graceffo, Liberatore, and Hjerpe had mid-rotation ceilings. The rest of the list looked like back-end starters at best, bullpen pieces, or already seemed like they were going to make the Majors. Liberatore was not finding success in his brief MLB stints, McGreevy was really struggling after being a first-round pick, and Graceffo hit a wall after a breakout 2022 campaign.

Now, when you take a look at the Cardinals' pitching pipeline today, it sure seems a lot different.

Pitching prospects in MLB Pipeline's Cardinals top 30 in 2026
Liam Doyle (No. 22 in MLB), Tanner Franklin, Brandon Clarke, Quinn Mathews, Jurrangelo Cijntje, Yhoiker Fajardo, Tekoah Roby, Jacob Odle, Cooper Hjerpe, Daniel Eagen, Mason Molina, Sandro Santana, Brycen Mautz, Luis Gastelum, Ixan Henderson, Cade Crossland, and Chen-Wei Lin (Honorable mention of Teegan Kuhns, Dawson Montesa, and Cal Randall, who will appear when 2026 draftees are added to the top 30).

Doyle, the fifth-overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, is one of the best pitching prospects in the game and has begun to dominate at Double-A as of late. Franklin, Clarke, Mathews, Cijntje, Kuhns, Eagen, Hjerpe, Roby, and Odle all join him as names with at least middle-of-the-rotation upside, with multiple of those guys having even more in the tank.

The Cardinals have done about as good a job as you could hope for over the last year and a half of drafting exciting arms, targeting them in trades, and getting the most out of them as pitching prospects once they are in the system. The proof will eventually be in the pudding at the Major League level, and we finally got our first glimpse of that with Mathews' debut recently.

Maybe Hence turns things around and has a debut in his future with the Cardinals, maybe not. Either way, the organization is much better positioned to survive the blow of arms who flame out now, as they have so many more in the stockpile who could be their next guy.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow