This Lars Nootbaar proposition by Cardinals media is ludicrous

There are just some sports takes that make zero sense, and this Lars Nootbaar proposition that has been flying around by some people who cover the St. Louis Cardinals is one of them.

The Cardinals recently announced Nootbaar had surgery on both of his heels to shave down Haglund’s deformities. The timetable for his recovery is uncertain at the moment.

Because of that, Randy Karraker of STL Sports Central recently wondered on their channel if the Cardinals would non-tender Nootbaar and save the $5.7 million in arbitration he is projected to be owed this offseason, and now others have wondered the same, but I'm here to tell you that would be an insane decision and one that there is no chance the Cardinals are considering.

There is no way the Cardinals non-tender Lars Nootbaar this offseason

In the past, I have been an advocate for the value and potential that Nootbaar has as a baseball player. I have for sure cooled on that sentiment and would be cool with the Cardinals trading Nootbaar this offseason, but non-tendering him makes no sense for an organization that wants to maximize value and talent, not just throw it away.

For his career, Lars Nootbaar owns a .242/.341/.406 slash line, good for a .747 OPS and 110 wRC+ while playing above-average defense in the corner outfield spots, and can pass in center field if needed. He's accumulated 8.9 fWAR in his 527 games and has averaged 2.1 fWAR and 117 games played per season since 2022.

When considering the idea of non-tendering a player and letting them walk, value has to come into play. Organizations will be quick to non-tender a player if the value they believe they will get on the field out of them is less than what it will cost to pay them. In the case of Lars Nootbaar, it would take an even greater disaster of a season than what he experienced in 2025 for him not to be worth his current arbitration estimate.

FanGraphs has a "Dollars" stat that converts a player's fWAR output into what they would say their "market value" would be that season. For every 1 fWAR that a player puts up, that's worth approximately $8.375 million in value to a ballclub. So, remembering that Nootbaar is projected $5.7 million in arbitration this offseason, let's look at what his estimated value has been to the Cardinals each full season he's played in for the club.

Every single year of Nootbaar's career since becoming a full-time big leaguer, he has been more valuable than the $5.7 million he is projected to earn this coming season. In fact, he was worth quadruple that number in 2022, almost quintuple that in 2023, and double that in 2024. Even in his career-worst season that he just had in 2025, he was still worth more to the Cardinals than what they are projected to pay him.

So seriously, why on earth would they consider non-tendering Nootbaar and letting him walk for free?

Yes, the timeline on Nootbaar's recovery is uncertain, and Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat shared some startling examples of how long that process can take from other professional athletes in the late 2010s. But at the same time, Bernie Miklasz shared on STL Sports Central recently that he has discussed the surgery with doctors, and recent medical advancements have vastly improved the timeline and process for recovery.

Will Nootbaar be more difficult to trade this offseason because of this surgery? Probably. But I guarantee you clubs would be lining up to sign Nootbaar if the Cardinals foolishly let him hit free agency with two years of club control remaining. If the Cardinals don't get the offers they would want for Nootbaar this offseason, there is zero reason to non-tender him. They can hold onto him, let him fight for a spot in their lineup, and assuming he's back to his career norms, he'll be one of the better players in their starting lineup. They can then revisit moving Nootbaar midseason or look at a deal next offseason.

For a club that is in a rebuild, simply letting talent go for free that can bring them back real value is just an insane proposition.

The Cardinals are already looking to shave plenty of money off of their books in the form of trades involving Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, and possibly Willson Contreras, and they are already going to be dropping $17.6 million from their books with Miles Mikolas hitting free agency and shaved approximately $30.2 million from their books with the departures of Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, and Phil Maton. Their current estimated 2026 payroll, without moving Arenado, Gray, or Contreras, is just $123 million. This is down from $178 million at the end of the 2024 season and already $21 million lower than their final 2025 payroll, even with arbitration estimates baked in, and will surely be dropping tens of millions of more dollars in the near future.

Cutting Nootbaar to save an extra $5.7 million would be ludicrous to say the least, and if the Cardinals actually did that, ownership should be ashamed of themselves for parting with real value to save a couple bucks, especially when they are already cutting payroll by close to $100 million in just a two-season span. Stop it with this idea.