This Cardinals prospect could flourish where Jordan Walker has floundered

Jordan Walker's first three major league seasons have not gone according to plan. The St. Louis Cardinals right fielder has plummeted from boasting one the top prospect rankings in the sport at the start of 2023 to being the sixth-worst hitter in the league in 2025 according to fWAR, at -1.2.

Although the 23-year-old Walker can't yet be written off given his youth, fans' patience has worn thin, and many have shifted their attention to the next wave of exciting young prospects in the Cardinals' farm system. One of these players, Joshua Baez, was the subject of a question to Baseball America's Geoff Pontes regarding Baez's similarities to Walker.

Pontes believes could turn into what fans expected Walker to become.

The question posed was whether Baez could be what the Cardinals thought Walker could be, to which Pontes responded, "I think from a legitimate power perspective I agree. He's a better runner and defender than Walker has ever been."

Baez did not experience the immediate success Walker did at the lower levels. The Cardinals' second-round pick in 2021, Baez hit just .158 with a .608 OPS in his professional debut season. He improved the following season between Rookie ball and Low-A, owning an OPS of .870, but he backslid in 2023, hitting just .218, and in 2024, he hit .245 with a .703 OPS between Low-A and High-A. Strikeouts were a massive problem, as he fanned around 35% of the time in those years. Those mediocre numbers left him clinging to the Cardinals' 2024 top 30 prospects list from MLB Pipeline, leaving analysts and fans unprepared for what came next.

Baez enjoyed a remarkable 2025, hitting .287 with an .884 OPS across High-A and Double-A while swiping a whopping 54 bases. Even more impressive was the drastic cut in his strikeout numbers, with him going down on strikes just 20.6% of the time. He also unlocked his power, hitting 20 home runs, nearly double his previous season high of 11.

That power is the most enticing aspect of Baez's game, just as it was with Walker's when he was climbing the ladder. However, even in the minors, Walker's ground ball rate was routinely around 45%, severely capping his home run potential. Baez, on the other hand, has a much more respectable ground ball rate of around 30%-35%, which will potentially allow him to optimize his power in the major leagues.

Defensively, Walker has improved in right field but is still well below average at the position. Although advanced defensive stats are difficult to find for players in the minor leagues, Baez has an excellent arm and can even handle center field, although right field is his best spot.

The Cardinals' poor handling of Walker can't be overlooked. The team forced him to overhaul his swing in the minor leagues even after he saw success early in his major league career, and in 2024, there was disagreement between manager Oli Marmol and then-President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak on how to allocate playing time for the outfielder.

In 2025, a telling interview with hitting coach Brant Brown revealed that Walker was not taking heed of Brown's and other coaches' advice to help Walker improve his game. There has obviously been a disconnect between Walker and the Cardinals, and Walker's career may be hanging in the balance because of it.

The Cardinals can start fresh with Baez, and their revamped development team, which has had more funds poured into it, should theoretically be able to bring him along and work with him more effectively than the Cardinals' previous staff did with Walker. If all goes well, the Cardinals could find themselves with a middle-of-the-order outfield bat who provides some much-needed thump for the lineup. It just might not be the one fans expected.