This Cardinal who could survive the winter sell-off would be a trade deadline darling

The St. Louis Cardinals are entering a restructuring period. The front office and ownership group won't call it a rebuild because they still intend on being competitive at the fringes, but this is, for all intents and purposes, a rebuild.

Trading away Sonny Gray was the first domino of many to fall this winter. Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, JoJo Romero, Nolan Gorman, and even Willson Contreras could all find themselves wearing new uniforms come 2026. One additional player who has been discussed as a potential trade candidate this winter is Lars Nootbaar.

Nootbaar, 28, still has two years of team control left and will be a free agent after the 2027 season. At the beginning of the offseason, Lars underwent surgery on both heels to help correct Haglund's deformities, a somewhat rare injury that creates an enlargement on the back of the heel. It can cause great pain and swelling.

The recovery window for Nootbaar is a bit up in the air, as this procedure hasn't been done much on athletes like him. Initial reports gave him a recovery window of up to nine months, but reporting since then has lessened the window of recovery to closer to six months. Regardless, Nootbaar is in jeopardy of not being on the Opening Day roster.

Team President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom said as much in late October when speaking with Matt Pauley of KMOX. "We're definitely not wanting to rush this but certainly optimistic with it. We have not ruled out Opening Day for him to be ready. We're going to make sure he gets the requisite spring training build."

Bloom also spoke to the potential that this injury has been hampering Noot's ability to play full speed in games. The former high school quarterback is certainly an athlete, and he's able to play all three outfield positions. However, an injury like this is something that could have been slowing him down over the last two years.

Since his debut in 2021, Nootbaar's average spring speed has fallen from 28.4 MPH (83rd percentile) to 27.8 MPH in 2023 (62nd percentile) to just 27 MPH this past year (39th percentile). Clearly, the deformities in his heels have been slowing him down on the basepaths and in the outfield. Both Lars and the Cardinals are hoping this procedure will help Nootbaar's play tremendously in 2026, and that could bode well for this restructuring that the Cardinals are going through.

Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar could become one of the most wanted players at the 2026 trade deadline.

Let's pretend for a moment that this surgery does indeed "fix" Lars Nootbaar. Let's take his best offensive season, 2023, and amplify that over a nearly-healthy season like he had this past year when he made 583 plate appearances across 135 games, both career highs by a long stretch.

He hit 14 home runs in 2023 in only 117 games. Amplify that out to 135 games and you get 18 home runs from a left-handed hitting corner outfielder who can play center field. He slugged 111 hits in 2023. Multiply that out and you get 128 hits, which would have finished 21st among all National League outfielders just behind Kyle Tucker. He walked 72 times in 2023, and if he would've played 135 games, he would've finished with 83 walks, a figure that would have placed him sixth among all National League outfielders last year.

What I'm getting at is that this surgery could actually fix Lars Nootbaar, and he could quickly become one of the best outfielders in the National League by the time the trade deadline rolls around. A left-handed hitting outfielder who can capably play all three positions and get on base at one of the best clips in the sport AND has an additional year of control following the 2026 season? Sign me up!

The Cardinals likely won't shop Lars Nootbaar this winter because his value isn't at its highest point following his surgery. However, if the procedure actually fixes what has been ailing Nootbaar for at least two seasons now works, he could become a prized commodity at this year's trade deadline, something writer Derrick Goold and editor Nathan Mills of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch discussed on a recent episode of Best Podcast in Baseball.

The Cardinals' restructuring won't be done in one offseason. We're likely looking at a 15-month period here where Chaim Bloom trades away assets to bring back prospects. Trading Sonny Gray has already netted the team a ready contributor in Richard Fitts and a prospect we can dream on in Brandon Clarke. Trading Brendan Donovan could bring back a legitimate starting pitcher or a plethora of promising prospects. If Lars Nootbaar is able to have a strong first half, he could bring back a comparable package of players at the trade deadline, a time when teams are willing to overpay for a player to help them as they approach the playoffs.