The villains behind Lars Nootbaar’s middling stats with the Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals have an outfield conundrum. The organization hasn’t said much about it, but you can tell by their moves that they know. Thomas Saggese is doing outfield drills. Ivan Herrera was spotted with John Jay at spring training the other day. The reason for all of this? (Well, aside from the fact that no one is sure that Jordan Walker or Victor Scott II can hit.) I think the reason is Lars Nootbaar.

Noot had an extremely invasive heel surgery this offseason. He’s still in California recovering because the newly renovated Cardinals spring training facility doesn’t have the right treadmill for his recovery yet. (It’s some kind of gravity treadmill. Sounds like it belongs in NASA - do I need one for my house?) He may not be ready for Opening Day and so the Cardinals are playing Dodgers-esque refresh position limbo to see who could stick. It’s a little scary.

This brings up a deeper question regarding Lars Nootbaar though. At 27 years old and scheduled to be a free agent in 2028, how long is he for this team? Don’t get me wrong, I love Noot. I realize the whole fanbase may not, but the Michael Jordan tongue out, Yamamoto recruiting, international Instagram star just does it for me. There’s always been a nagging thing for me about Noot though, Statcast loves him, but why are the results always kind of middling? So, whether it’s as a long-term left fielder, or still more trade bait (not, Boston for my boy Noot – please, Chaim!), what gives on his offensive results?

Where Lars Nootbaar Shines

You could make the argument that Lars Nootbaar stole Dylan Carlson’s career. As an eight-round pick, the Cardinals have gotten way more value out of him than is reasonable to expect. To me, the genesis of the Nootessaince started when he went to driveline and increased his bat speed. (Carlson, I loved you as a prospect, why didn’t you do this??) 

To wit, Noot has a solidly above-average bat speed. Honestly, if you go to his Statcast page, it looks like middle America on voting night – red as far as the eye can see. Ok, it’s not Wyoming on election night, but it’s solidly in the Nebraska range. Noot is above average compared to his MLB peers in Average Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, Squared-Up %, Chase %, Whiff %, and Walk %. If you’re keeping score at home, he hits the ball hard, doesn’t chase, and doesn’t miss when he swings. That, my friends, is an excellent base to start from. When people talk about his “underlying numbers,” this is what they mean. His stat line says slightly above average, but the way he’s hitting the ball says all-star. Flat out.

So, and I mean this as legitimately as I can, why isn’t he Juan Soto? First of all, Juan Soto’s statcast page is blindingly red – hello Wyoming on election night! But Noot does a truly decent approximation of what Soto does, except Noot’s pepper grinder is far more endearing than the Soto shuffle. Here’s where the problem becomes glaring. Soto’s expected batting average and expected slug, are both above the 95th percentile, while Noobaar’s were 16th and 36th percentiles respectively. 

Don’t mistake it, Juan Soto is going to Cooperstown and so he makes better contract and has a better eye even than Nootbaar. This is the part in the Scooby-Doo cartoon when we unmask the villain, so here we go, I have three villains to uncover. 

The Villains in Lars Nootbaar's Middling Results

Villain number one is going to shock everyone. Nootbaar is known for his keen batting eye (give this man the greenest of lights in the trial ABS system). Last year, he swung at more pitches than he ever has outside the zone and swung at the second-fewest pitches he’s ever swung at in the zone. What’s even more interesting is that he had the lowest ever damage on fastballs of his careers and sliders killed him. Combine these two facts and what do you get? Noot is spitting on fastballs in the zone early in the count only to swing at putaway sliders later. Sounds a bit like Jordan Walker, no? The good news is, batting eye usually gets better throughout a career and so a bounce-back season here would do wonders for him.

Villain number two is related. Nootbaar just posted the lowest pull percentage of his career. You and I and everyone else likes a hitter that “hits it where they pitch it.” It’s aesthetically pleasing. But, I’m telling you, pitchers are throwing harder with nastier breaking stuff than ever before, and so when you see a pitch to pull and do damage you have to pull the trigger. Noot still hits the ball hard, but he’s robbing himself of some damage because he’s not driving pitches he could be pulling.

Guess what? Villain number three is a cousin. This is starting to feel like some kind of twisted daytime soap opera. (I considered a joke here about Arkansas, but that’s Cardinals country so I’ll hold my fire!) Last year, Nootbaar ran his worst BABIP since his rookie season. League average BABIP (batting average on balls in play, in other words, how often did you get a hit when you put the ball in play) hovers around .300. Last year, his was .278. Normalize that to league average and everything looks a little better. 

I’d normally call this “bad luck,” imagine when a guy hits a screaming line drive right at a fielder, but I suspect that the pull-side power comes into play here. Nootbaar is running a lower BABIP because he’s not hammering the pitches he can pull because he’s not swinging in the zone enough. See how these villains are all cousins?

What’s the moral of the story? Swing. The. Bat. Now, the most difficult part is that Nootbaar shouldn’t totally lose that patient approach, then he’s in a double world of hurt – also called Jordan Walker. So, it’s gotta be taken down a notch. Remember the good news though: when he swings he doesn’t miss and when he makes contact it’s hard contact. So, is this possible? I’d respond with a resounding yes. Trade bait, or mainstay, the answers to solving the statcast conundrum all point back to the same place - swing that bat, Lars.