The odd man out from the Cardinals' young core is emerging

With the MLB All-Star Break just a week away, the St. Louis Cardinals are over 55% of the way through the 2025 season, the year of "runway" for their young Major League talent.

The club's record, sitting at 48-42 prior to their series finale against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday Night Baseball, is much better than many anticipated it would be back in the offseason. The club is on pace for 86 wins and in the thick of the playoff race as things currently stand, and that's with letting all of their free agents go this offseason and their lone offseason addition coming in the form of right-handed reliever Phil Maton.

Their success in large part has been due to the young players they wanted to create opportunities for stepping up and producing. When healthy, Ivan Herrera has been one of the best hitters in all of baseball. Brendan Donovan is an All-Star this year. Alec Burleson is slugging in the middle of the Cardinals' order and has greatly improved his defense. Masyn Winn continues to impress with his glove and handle his own with his bat, and Victor Scott II has done the same. Heck, even Nolan Gorman appears to be figuring things out as of late! And let's not leave out the job Matthew Liberatore has done in the rotation this year.

For all of the success stories we have seen from their young core, there have been disappointments as well. While Jordan Walker represents the lowest of lows in terms of player performance, I think it is fair to say that Lars Nootbaar's down 2025 season has been the most frustrating of all, and as things stand today, he looks like the clear odd man out for the Cardinals beyond this year.

Lars Nootbaar is emerging as the odd man out from the Cardinals' young core

Coming into the 2025 season, two of the "safest" players in terms of runway were Nootbaar and Donovan, who both were not quite young players anymore but weren't quite veterans yet either. Both Nootbaar and Donovan had found a ton of success at the Major League level already, and 2025 was about them bridging the gap between the early-20-somethings on the Cardinals' roster and the veterans like Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras.

Donovan has more than held up his end of the bargain, putting up a career year thus far and clearly cementing himself as a key member of the Cardinals' moving forward. For Nootbaar, 2025 has been the worst season of his big league career, and there are a lot of moving parts that suggest he is the guy the Cardinals may need to move on from this offseason.

Yes, this offseason, no, not at the trade deadline like I have seen some suggest. Why would you trade Nootbaar in a few weeks when he is posting a career-worst offensive slash line and can use the second half to get things back on track?

Nootbaar is not Dylan Carlson or Tyler O'Neill. Yes, he's struggled with injuries like O'Neill did, but not nearly to the same extent. And sure, he has fallen off offensively this year, but again, not to the same extent that Carlson did, and not for a multi-season sample size.

Coming into the 2025 season, Nootbaar, in 1379 plate appearances, had a .246/.348/.425 slash line, good for a .774 OPS and 116 wRC+. Among players with at least 1000 plate appearances between 2021-2024, Nootbaar's 116 wRC+ ranked tied with Giancarlo Stanton for 74th in all of baseball and ahead of players like Jarren Duran, Matt Chapman, Christian Walker, Adolis Garcia, and the 223 other players behind him on that list. For the section of fans who say Nootbaar is a "fourth outfielder," well, the numbers have always refuted that.

Nootbaar had established himself as a well-above-average big league bat who could play good corner outfield defense, but the main issue he still needed to solve was being able to stay on the field, and he's actually done that in 2025. Nootbaar has appeared in 82 of the Cardinals' 90 games so far this year, but he's done so with diminishing results at the plate. If the season ended today, he'd be posting career lows in AVG, SLG, wRC+, and the second-worst OBP of his time in the big leagues.

And even while playing in just 69% of the Cardinals games since 2022 due to injuries, Nootbaar still ranks 85th in all of baseball in fWAR since then (8.1), and only 10 names above him on that list have played in fewer games than him. Nootbaar is a valuable player who impacts the game in a multitude of ways...so let's not act like Michael Siani would be a better option than him.

Trading him this season would likely mean taking cents on the dollar for Nootbaar, something the Cardinals have done far too often in recent years, and there is zero pressure to make that move today. With two years of control beyond 2025, Nootbaar is something they can take their time with, but I do think we are heading toward a scenario this offseason where he is the exact type of player the Cardinals should be shopping on the trade market.

No, not because I think Nootbaar is a "bad" player, quite the contrary actually. I would be shocked if he finishes the year as just a 102 wRC+ bat. My guess is that he is going to rebound in the second half and look much more like himself again, but there are a variety of factors that are playing into why Nootbaar could be the name the Cardinals make available this offseason.

Here are a list of reasons why...

1. First, the Cardinals, as we all know, have logjams all over the place when it comes to their position players.

And even if Nolan Arenado is not on the roster in 2026, which remains a big if, the Cardinals still need to find consistent playing time for Donovan, Winn, Herrera, Burleson, Scott, and Contreras. Gorman and Pages likely land on that list as well. How much the Cardinals need to "create" space for Walker will be determined by how he finishes the year, but both he and Saggese are names they would want to see play. On top of that, JJ Wetherholt will likely be in the picture by then as well, and he'll need to play every day. And there are other prospects, like Jimmy Crooks, who may be ready as well.

While the laundry list of names the Cardinals had at their disposal this year has created challenges for manager Oliver Marmol to get everyone at-bats, it was a necessary ripple effect of the state of the organization, and one of the consequences of Arenado remaining on the roster and Contreras wishing to stay. But in 2026, when Chaim Bloom is in charge, it would be a mistake to do this song and dance again with the same amount of roster clutter.

2. Second, if you run through the list of young Cardinals, Lars Nootbaar is the player who can bring back the most value while not removing a key cog of from their lineup.

When Nootbaar is on, he helps the Cardinals' offense hum and produce at a high level. So in a sense, he is a key cog in what they do. But let's run through the other names briefly, and then you'll see what I mean.

Brendan Donovan - Donnie should be an All-Star this year, and he's cemented himself as both a leader in the clubhouse and a cornerstone of this team. Very few players in baseball can match Donovan's blend of defensive versatility and offensive production, and he looks like a future Cardinals Red Jacket recipient in my eyes. You keep him around long term.

Ivan Herrera - The Cardinals need to figure out how to keep him in the lineup consistently, and while that means he likely moves off the catcher position, his bat has performed like one of the best in baseball for the last three years now, so having him at DH, the corner outfield, or first base is essential. The Cardinals do not have another bat like Herrera's.

Masyn Winn - While he may never be a "superstar," Winn looks like a perennial Gold Glover at shortstop who can be an above league average bat and provide value on the basepaths. He will be among the league leaders in WAR every year with that kind of profile, because he truly is such a valuable player when he is on the field.

Alec Burleson - We'll see how the rest of the year plays out, because I could see a world where we say Burleson is a guy that should be shopped as well. Not because he’s not an impactful player, but because his production may be able to be replaced by someone else. His bat has been awesome this year, but as we saw in 2024, Burleson has been capable of red-hot summers that are sandwiched by cold starts and finishes to his season that result in his numbers not being where they need to be. But if Burleson shows his current production is sustainable, well, you keep him.

Victor Scott II - He’s not someone who has the center field job locked up for the next decade by any means, but right now, he’s the clear option for St. Louis on both the immediate and long-term future. His defense and speed alone make him a valuable player, and when his bat is even just league average or better, he’s a major difference maker.

Willson Contreras - He has a no-trade clause, so if he wants to be here, he’s here. And the Cardinals should want Contreras in St. Louis. It’s been a bit of a down year for the new first baseman, but he’s handled the position well defensively, and his bat is still one to be reckoned with.

JJ Wetherholt - The Cardinals’ first-round pick in 2024 is lighting the world on fire in Double-A and looks the part of a future All-Star. He’s going to be a part of this core for a long time.

Nolan Gorman - While we still need to see more from him, he presents the Cardinals with something no one else can on their roster — big-time power. The Cardinals have a lot of guys who can get on base and do damage in other ways, but no one with true 30+ or even 40+ home run power in their bat. Gorman isn’t necessarily a core piece right now, but I don’t see why you’d move on from him in the near future.

Jordan Walker - Again, he's not a guy whom the Cardinals should be clearing playing time for in 2026 as things currently stand, but there is no way the club gets anything of value for him right now, or at least anything worth ending the Jordan Walker era just yet. He may find himself in a similar role as Gorman was entering this year — a bench bat who will have to hit his way into the lineup.

Pedro Pages/Jimmy Crooks/Yohel Pozo - Since it seems unlikely that Ivan Herrera will be the club's catcher long term, one of Pages, Crooks, Pozo, or someone else will have to be in the lineup and behind the pate, and that takes away a potential spot for at-bats to go to someone else.

Nolan Arenado/other internal names/offseason acquisitions - If Arenado is back next year, that is going to complicate things further. Guys like Thomas Saggese, Nathan Church, or other internal Cardinals may be on the roster next year, and while they won't be regulars like others on the list, they do warrant time on the field and a true role on the team. And even though the Cardinals' offense has been much better this year, they really could use a right-handed bat from outside the organization to raise the level of play.

So that brings us to Lars Nootbaar, who is going to be two years away from free agency this winter and has been someone that teams around the league value for some time now. He's been productive on the field, and assuming he rebounds in the second half, his career numbers are going to look enticing for other clubs, especially organizations that believe they can help him take another step forward with his incredible profile under the hood.

I already touched on the value of Nootbaar's bat when it comes to the metrics, but what seemed to divide people was how much stock to take in the underlying metrics. Nootbaar's has consistently ranked among the best players in baseball in expected numbers, chase%, whiff%, hardhit%, and even in a bad year like 2025, he is still producing elite bat speed, hardhit%, chase%, BB%, and average exit velocity. It's the kind of profile teams would love to have.

One of those organizations could even be the Cardinals, and I wouldn't blame them for wanting to hold onto Nootbaar. Again, I think he's a good player who can be even better if he keeps staying on the field like he has this year and figures out whatever slump he's been in.

But at the same time, with all of these other players that the Cardinals have internally, it makes sense to give playing time to them. Nootbaar may be a unique profile for this team of someone who is more valuable in a trade than he is keeping, not because they wouldn't love to have his production, but because they can replace it with other players.

The left-handed bats are really what make this conversation interesting. They should not be trading Donovan, and Wetherholt is going to be a centerpiece of this team real soon. Burleson could be the guy they move instead of Nootbaar, but he's further away from free agency and may not be as valuable a trade piece. (Read why here.) Wetherholt and Donovan's offensive profiles are similar to Nootbaar's but project to be better, and Burleson adds more pop to his game. Gorman, as I said earlier, offers the kind of power the Cardinals do not have elsewhere.

Couple that with Herrera taking the DH role or potentially a corner outfield spot, and you've got five names for four spots, not even including Walker or other internal players or outside additions. It gets a bit easier to navigate if Arenado is gone, but it would still be more names than the lineup card can fit, and it doesn't leave room for new additions.

It's July 8th, so a lot can change between now and the offseason. If Nootbaar continues to spiral, his value in a trade may not be worth moving him anymore. Or perhaps he bounces back in a big way while Burleson struggles, and then maybe Burleson becomes the odd man out. Gorman could look lost at the plate again and be the guy they decide to cut bait with; same with Walker. There is still plenty of time for this conversation to change.

But given the trajectory we are on, even if Nootbaar bounces back, which I believe he will, he seems like the odd man out of the Cardinals' core in 2026 and beyond, and may be the first major chess piece Chaim Bloom decides to cash in on.