Alec Burleson may force the Cardinals to shake up their long-term core

Going into the 2025 season, Alec Burleson once again looked like the young player who would be getting the short end of the stick by the St. Louis Cardinals.

With a plethora of other players they were seeking at-bats for, Burleson wasn't expected to be an everyday player, especially when it became clear that Nolan Arenado would not be traded. With Willson Contreras' move to first base, Nolan Gorman and Luken Baker the favorites to platoon at DH, and the corner outfield spots manned by Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Walker, consistent playing time was going to be hard to come by.

In typical Burleson fashion, he came into camp determined to carve out more of a role for himself, eventually beating our Gorman for a spot in their starting lineup on Opening Day and has mostly been a mainstay in the lineup ever since, especially as he became red-hot at the plate ever since the start of May.

While Burleson's hot bat is rightfully being elevated by the Cardinals right now, taking a closer look at the roster long term, there's a really interesting story developing as to whether he's now a part of their long-term core, and if he is, does he make other players expendable?

Could Alec Burleson make other members of the Cardinals' young core expendable?

The Cardinals are flooded with 1B/DH/corner OF types right now, and so it makes you wonder, whom are the Cardinals going to commit to in 2026 and beyond? Let's start with considering whether Burleson is someone you could sell high on.

Some of you are already like, "What on earth are you talking about? How could the Cardinals possibly not want Burleson to be a part of their future moving forward?" I get that! As you'll see in just a moment, I'm not even advocating for Burleson to be a trade piece as things currently stand, but he does represent a really interesting piece of the puzzle whose fit is not quite as clear as you might think it would be.

Through 67 games this year, Burleson is slashing .308/.346/.464 with eight home runs and 30 RBI, good for a 126 wRC+. Ever since May began, Burleson is slashing .338/.369/.568 with all eight of his home runs coming in those 40 games and a 167 wRC+. He's been an excellent hitter for the Cardinals for almost two straight months now, similar to the summer surge he went on last year.

Perhaps the biggest revelation for Burleson so far this year has been his production against left-handed pitching, albeit in a very limited sample size. In 39 plate appearances, Burleson has a .297/.333/.486 slash line, and that 130 wRC+ he has posted thus far is *checks notes* 87% better than he was in 2024, where his dreadful 43 wRC+ in 142 plate appearances against lefties made it malpractice to start him in those matchups.

Burleson has been a strong option against right-handed pitching for a while now. Over his last 146 games since the beginning of 2024, his 125 wRC+ against righties actually ranks 10th in all of baseball with at least 600 plate appearances against right-handers, making him one of the premier options to mash right-handed pitching in today's game. Oh, and his teammate Brendan Donovan ranks fifth on that list with a 132 wRC+!

Offensively, there is zero question that Burleson's production warrants his name being entrenched in the lineup card for the rest of the year and probably years to come. There are some potential signs of regression coming in his profile, and those things caught up to Burleson in the second half of 2024 and muted his production significantly. But if this kind of production is more the norm for Burleson rather than the exception, that's a huge revelation for the Cardinals' lineup.

With that being said, the uncertainty with how "real" the production is long term, mixed with his limited defensive profile and the other options the Cardinals have on their roster, makes this an interesting conversation. Does Burleson make other players expendable? Or do the Cardinals sell high on Burleson at some point? Once we can answer that question, it allows us to look at who may be expendable if Burleson is not.

I want to break down the argument for both sides and then give you my take on where Alec Burleson should stand with the Cardinals long term.

To start, I put this poll out over on X this weekend, and the vast majority of people voted in favor of Burleson being a part of the Cardinals' core long term.

So, let's jump into the case for that!

As I showed earlier, Burleson has been producing at a high level this year, and his numbers against right-handed pitching dating back to last year have been excellent.

If you compare Burleson's offensive production since the beginning of 2024 to the other members of the Cardinals' potential young core (Herrera, Donovan, Walker, Winn, Scott, and Gorman), Burleson ranks first in HR and RBI, third in SLG, wRC+, and wOBA, fourth in AVG and OBP, but fifth overall in fWAR.

The fWAR is where things get interesting and is part of what you have to weigh when considering whom to keep and whom to trade long term. While Burleson has been an excellent offensive producer over the last two years against right-handed pitching and is showing encouraging signs against left-handers, he is a below-average corner outfield defender and fine first baseman, which means he practically makes up all of his surplus value from what he does at the plate.

When you compare that to someone like Nootbaar, while he's been cold for a long stretch this year, he objectively has held more value than Burleson and likely still does. He provides a team with above-average defense in the corner outfield, can play center field, and until recently was outpacing Burleson offensively over the last two years, and still does for their careers.

If Burleson mashes like this the rest of the year and finishes as a 130 wRC+ bat or better, he has upped his value tremendously. But if he falls back to earth a little bit and finishes more like a 115-120 wRC+ guy, he likely won't carry all that much value in a trade, even with his cost control.

I think Brandon Kiley of 101 ESPN hit the nail on the head with this tweet: Alec Burleson is likely more valuable to the Cardinals than someone else. So if that's true, does he make a different member of their young core expendable?

Alec Burleson may squeeze a different member of the Cardinals young core out of their plans.

Next year, the Cardinals will likely be adding JJ Wetherholt to their mix, and even if Nolan Arenado is no longer on the roster, they'll be balancing playing time for nine different players at six positions in Wetherholt, Burleson, Donovan, Gorman, Contreras, Nootbaar, Walker, Saggese, and Herrera.

Should the Cardinals decide to hold onto all of those guys, Burleson gives the club really nice insurance in case Walker or Gorman show up to camp in 2026 and still haven't figured things out at the plate. His presence allows them to "play with house money" when it comes to those high upside guys, knowing that if they flame out, Burleson was already someone they trusted.

But my guess is that they'll want to at least clear some of the clutter this offseason, and while they could do that by parting ways with someone like Walker or Gorman at all-time low value, they could look to move someone like Nootbaar instead in order to bring back as much value as possible.

This is assuming Nootbaar isn't going to crater all year and his recent rebound at the plate is evidence that he's getting back to normal, but if Nootbaar finishes the season as a 115-120 wRC+ bat, he carries significant value in a trade for the Cardinals this offseason. Could the Cardinals see Burleson's emergence as a reason to part ways with Nootbaar, trusting that guys like Donovan and Wetherholt can fill some of that on-base prowess that Nootbaar brought to the table?

It is June 24th, so we don't need to answer those questions today. But man, this roster crunch does get really interesting if Burleson leveled up offensively this year. For now, we wait and see. He had a very similar hot stretch in 2024 that faded as the summer went on, so we can't count that out from happening again. But if Burleson finishes the year closer to what he is right now than what he finished 2024 as and began 2025 doing, it'll be hard to imagine him not being a fixture in the Cardinals' lineup in 2026.